We’re Going to Need to Be Realistic about Ukraine

By Rich Lowry

Friday, June 17, 2022

 

There was a freak-out about Henry Kissinger’s comments a few weeks ago about a negotiated solution in Ukraine. I favor supporting the Ukrainians to the hilt and believe Biden should have been giving them the kind of weapons they need now in the East much earlier. Although Russia is gaining, there’s still a chance it stalls out and can’t hold on to what it’s taken to this point. But it’s much likelier that Ukraine is going to have to accept an unsatisfactory deal, when and if Russia think it’s too painful to keep trying to drive forward.

 

Fareed Zakaria is pretty acute on this point in his latest column:

 

Even though we’re not in the final stages yet, it would be smart for Ukraine to start thinking about the endgame. That way, it can develop a coherent position, align its strategy around it and gain international support. Former secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger was criticized for suggesting that Kyiv should not seek to go beyond the pre-Feb. 24 lines on the battlefield. In fact, at this point it appears highly unlikely that Ukraine would even be able to regain all that territory by force, though it should keep trying. But it does seem wise to make that its goal — to reverse Russia’s territorial gains from this year. Then Kyiv can try to get back territories lost before that in 2014 through negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelensky has several times suggested something similar. And that goal — a return to the pre-Feb. 24 lines — would also be one that would garner the most international support.

 

In the final phase of the war, the West — and the United States in particular — become the pivotal players. Right now Russia is battling Ukraine directly. But if and when the conflict becomes something of a stalemate, the real struggle will be between Russia and the West. What will Russia give to get a relaxation of sanctions? What will the West demand to end Russia’s isolation?

 

So far, Washington has punted on this, explaining that it is up to the Ukrainians to decide what they want and that Washington will not negotiate over their heads. That’s the right message of public support, but Ukraine and its Western partners need to formulate a set of common war aims, coordinating strategy around them, gaining international support and using all the leverage they have to succeed. The goal must be an independent Ukraine, in full control of at least as much territory as it had before Feb. 24, and with some security commitments from the West.

 

A continued, drawn-out war will, needless to say, be incredibly painful:

 

The alternative to some kind of negotiated settlement would be an unending war in Ukraine, which would further devastate that country and its people, more than 5 million of whom have already fled. And the resulting disruptions to energy supplies, food and the economy would spiral everywhere, with political turmoil intensifying across the globe. Surely it is worth searching for an endgame that avoids this bleak future.