By Matthew
Continetti
Monday, February
14, 2022
President Biden is running out of time. He
has until November 8 to improve both his own political standing and public
attitudes toward the Democratic Party. Otherwise, his tenuous congressional
majorities—222–212 in the House of Representatives and 50–50 in the Senate—will
disappear. Every morning brings him another reminder of his dilemma. Every
morning brings him one step closer to what’s shaping up to be the biggest
political shellacking in more than a decade.
The odds are not in Biden’s favor.
Historical precedent is against him. Only twice in the last century has the
president’s party gained seats in its first midterm. Both situations were
unique. In 1934, FDR’s Democrats benefited from an enormous amount of support
for the New Deal. In 2002 George W. Bush’s Republicans gained from the surge in
patriotism and hawkishness after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Public admiration
for the leadership styles of both presidents was visible in their high
job-approval ratings. That goodwill translated into gains for their parties.
There is no parallel today.
On the contrary: Biden’s numbers drag his
party down. A president’s job approval is highly correlated with his party’s
performance in off-year elections. As I write in early February, Biden’s job
approval is 11 points underwater in the FiveThirtyEight.com average of polls.
According to the Gallup organization, Biden’s average first-year approval
rating ranked second-to-last among post–World War II presidents. The only president
with worse numbers during his first year was Donald Trump, who lost 42 House
seats in 2018. The average loss by a president whose approval rating is under
50 percent is 37 House seats. Biden can afford to lose five. In the Senate, he
can’t lose any.
The electorate’s negative attitude toward
Biden extends to his party. It is rare for Republicans to lead the
congressional generic ballot. But that is what they have been doing since last
November, according to the FiveThirtyEight.com polling average. The two-point
GOP lead is slim. It is also durable. And it’s been growing since the beginning
of this year.
It is also unusual for Republicans to lead
in party identification. Typically, Republicans run behind Democrats in party
ID. They win majorities by leveraging support among independents. In January,
however, the Gallup organization released a stunning finding: When Americans
were asked to make a binary choice between Republicans and Democrats,
Republicans held a five-point lead in party identification. That is the GOP’s
greatest advantage since the first quarter of 1995, when Republicans took
control of the House for the first time in 40 years.
Then there is money. It is not dispositive
in politics. Plenty of candidates outraise their opponents but don’t win. The
best example of this limitation is former New York City mayor Michael
Bloomberg, who spent $1 billion of his own money in the 2020 Democratic
presidential primary. All he had to show for it was five delegates from
American Samoa.
What money does tell you is who
donors believe will win. Now dollars are flowing to
Republicans. Take the political action committees (PACs). Unlike candidates,
PACs are allowed to raise and spend an unlimited amount of money. And
Republican-aligned PACs outraised their Democratic counterparts by $25 million
during the last six months of 2021. Republican-aligned PACs begin 2022 with
over $30 million more on hand than Democratic PACs. The cash hoard is a gauge
of Republican donor enthusiasm for the midterm campaign.
Another measure of GOP excitement is found
in polling data that show Republicans are more enthusiastic about the election
than Democrats by double digits. Conservative energy is evident in the raucous
school-board meetings denouncing critical race theory (CRT), remote learning,
and mandatory masking. Glenn Youngkin’s come-from-behind win in the Virginia
governor’s race last year fed Republicans’ expectations of victory.
Partisan enthusiasm is a zero-sum game.
The better Republicans feel about their chances, the more pessimistic Democrats
become. Want proof? At this writing, 29 House Democrats have announced their
retirements. That number isn’t a ceiling. It’s a floor.
“The red wave is coming. Period. End of
discussion,” GOP strategist Corry Bliss told the New York Times recently. Times reporters
Blake Hounshell and Leah Askarinam searched for reasons Bliss might be wrong.
They came up with seven potential obstacles to a Republican landslide: high
turnout among Democrats, a return of normalcy, a winning communications
strategy, favorable gerrymanders, backlash against a possible reversal of Roe v. Wade,
GOP extremism, and the return of Trump to the center of political debate.
All possible. And all improbable. It is
telling that most of the game changers listed in the Times are
beyond Biden’s control. The best way to turn out Democrats, for instance, is to
have Donald Trump on the ballot. That won’t happen until at least 2024. Nor do
Democrats choose GOP nominees. Republicans do. State governments oversee
redistricting. The Supreme Court will determine the fate of Roe.
And “normalcy” won’t return until inflation falls and Biden resists his overly
cautious medical advisers, repudiates the teachers’ unions, and disincentivizes
illegal immigration. As for a winning message, Biden had one in 2020. Then he
forgot it.
You know what happened next. Historian Jon
Meacham convinced Biden that he—yes, he—was the second coming of FDR and LBJ.
The president embarked on a transformative agenda with the smallest Democratic
majorities in more than a century. The success of his bipartisan infrastructure
bill was lost amid news of chaos on the southern border, the Delta variant,
retreat in Afghanistan, and rising inflation and crime.
Biden doubled down. He whipped support for
his multi-trillion-dollar Build Back Better legislation despite opposition from
within his own party. He was unpersuasive. Build Back Better died. Biden said
that opponents of his election-takeover proposals stood on the same side of the
issue as Jefferson Davis and George Wallace. His words had no effect. The
election bills died, too. Biden couldn’t convince 50 Democratic senators to
modify or abolish the legislative filibuster. Indeed, Biden seems unable to
convince anyone of anything.
Biden is so desperate for a win that his
chief of staff purposely leaked news of Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer’s
retirement. Biden assumes that keeping his promise to nominate the first black
woman to the Supreme Court will turn the tide in his favor. This is wishful
thinking. Seventy-six percent of Americans told ABC pollsters after Breyer’s
announcement that Biden should ignore his campaign pledge and consider “all
possible nominees.” Even if Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee act
obnoxiously while questioning the nominee—a distinct possibility—the hearings
will be a distant memory by Election Day. Voters are more likely to remember
promises that Biden made but did not keep: that he would “shut down the virus,”
that inflation would be “temporary,” and that the Afghanistan withdrawal was an
“extraordinary success.”
At the beginning of this year, longtime
Democratic strategist James Carville appeared on Meet the Press to
offer his party advice. “Just quit being a whiny party,” Carville said, “and
get out there and fight and tell people what you did, and tell people the exact
truth.” Carville was as feisty—and as wrong—as ever. People know the exact
truth of what Joe Biden has done. That’s why his party is in trouble.
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