By Michael
Brendan Dougherty
Monday, February
21, 2022
The Russian government has formally
recognized Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, two sections of Ukraine
that have been subjected to years of fighting between Russian- and
Ukrainian-backed militias. This recognition amounts to the Russian government
giving itself permission to intervene to protect these breakaway nations in an
undisguised way.
But just as distressing was the speech
Vladimir Putin gave to announce it to the world. Earlier today I wrote a
piece that in one line offhandedly suggested
that Putin was a rational actor. I repent of having written it. If that
ranting, grandiose, aggrieved wreck of a speech was delivered sincerely, then
Putin has addled himself with his own propaganda, is now unpredictable, and
will likely drive his nation and others to a disaster. I grant that there may
be insincerity in it as well. But reports of his meeting with French president
Emmanuel Macron suggest that Macron was subjected to six hours of this same
ranting and could never bring Putin down to what Europeans see as the brass
tacks: the Minsk agreements, the withdrawal of Russian irregulars, and a series
of next steps, including diplomatic talks on the long-term security
arrangements of Europe.
His speech featured the Russian litany of
post–Cold War grievances, namely the broken promise not to expand NATO. “They
try to convince us over and over again that NATO is a peace-loving and purely
defensive alliance, saying that there are no threats to Russia. Again they
propose that we take them at their word. But we know the real value of such
words,” he said. More disconcerting, he suggested that the expansion of NATO
was meant to “serve as a forward springboard for the strike.”
Putin attacked the very nationhood of
Ukraine, saying it was entirely a product of Soviet statebuilding:
As a
result of Bolshevik policy, Soviet Ukraine arose, which even today can with
good reason be called “Vladimir Ilyich Lenin’s Ukraine.” He is its author and
architect. This is fully confirmed by archive documents. . . . And now grateful
descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they
call decommunisation. Do you want decommunisation? Well, that suits us just
fine. But it is unnecessary, as they say, to stop halfway. We are ready to show
you what real decommunisation means for Ukraine.
This was all part of his argument that
Ukraine “never had a tradition of genuine statehood.” While it is true that
Ukraine’s existence as an independent state is only recent, the peoplehood of
the Ruthenians in western Ukraine goes back centuries and distinguished them as
members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. And nations — peoples — really do
emerge with a full historical consciousness and a coherent-enough story from
exactly the kind of events Putin describes. But it’s not for me to argue with
Putin.
Putin said that sanctions discussed by the
Americans would likely be put on Russia for any pretext, whatever happens in
Ukraine. Most ominously he referred to lists of Ukrainians who were fomenting
violence against Russia-allied people in Ukraine, and dragging Ukraine away
from Russia, saying that these men would be brought to justice.
“I want to say clearly and directly that
in the current situation, when our proposals for an equal dialogue on
fundamental issues have actually remained unanswered by the United States and
NATO, when the level of threats to our country is increasing significantly,
Russia has every right to take retaliatory measures to ensure its own security.
That is exactly what we will do.”
This speech should make one question
Putin’s sanity, to wonder if his grip on himself or on his own regime is not
firm.
With the West having only barely and
hesitantly contemplated sanctions, with no further ideas for escalation, it
seems to me that the talking is all over, and this crisis will now play out in
events. Anyone telling you how this will go is a fool. Now is the time that
nations like Poland may step forward with ideas for how Europe can maintain
security in its own backyard. Meanwhile, we watch, and pray for our friends in
Ukraine.
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