How the West Should Respond

By Mark Antonio Wright

Thursday, February 24, 2022

 

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has begun. The Ukrainians appear to be fighting hard in the east of their country near Kharkiv, a city of more than a million people, where the bulk of the Ukrainian army and its best units have so far slowed a Russian mechanized advance from Belgorod.

 

But in the south, the Russian advance from Crimea has been rapid, and in some places almost unopposed. In the north, the Russians appear to be making a run for Kyiv, advancing from Belarus and western Russia with mechanized units on both the left and right banks of the Dnieper River, which runs through the capital. Video is spreading of Russian helicopter-borne air-assault units securing an airfield near Kyiv.

 

The sheer mass of Russian armor and the speed with which Russian mechanized units are capable of advancing mean that Ukraine’s defenders have little chance of stopping the Russians; they can only hope to slow Putin’s advance and make it as painful as possible. The organized resistance of the Ukrainian army is likely to be measured in days or weeks, at best.

 

So what now? What should the United States and a united West do in response? And how can this response be calibrated in order to avoid a larger, even more horrible war between NATO and Russia?

 

First, the sanctions long promised by the West in the event of an invasion should be imposed. Any hesitation to impose maximum sanctions on the Russian regime will be viewed by Putin as utter weakness. Make no mistake, these sanctions cannot hope to force Moscow to withdraw from Ukraine. But the United States, the United Kingdom, the EU, and our Asian allies should move swiftly to sanction Russian banks, individual Russian oligarchs and elites, and any business or organization that could contribute to the Russian war machine. Britain has said it will seize the assets and real estate of Russian oligarchs in London if Putin invades Ukraine. Every Western country should follow Britain’s lead.

 

Second, the West must do everything in its power over the next few weeks to provide Ukraine with the aid it needs to keep fighting. Ukraine needs fuel, and munitions, and supplies of all kinds. We should supply these goods generously until there is no one left in Ukraine who wants to receive them.

 

Third, the West must ceaselessly counter Russian propaganda efforts. Putin’s regime says this is a righteous war for the de-nazification of Ukraine. Russia has used false-flag attacks to justify its operations. We must call out these Russian lies at every opportunity. And this counter-propaganda effort must be aimed at both the Russian people and those in the West who will refuse to see or believe the truth of what Putin has unleashed.

 

Fourth, NATO must immediately reinforce its eastern flank with hard deterrent power. New NATO rapid-response battle groups should be deployed to the Baltics and to Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. These battle groups should be primarily built around western European troops — Britain, France, and, yes, Germany must hold the line here. But the United States should show its commitment by deploying a significant armored formation to Europe. This will take some weeks, so the order should be given immediately. (To those who complain that U.S. shouldn’t be distracted from the Pacific, I would respond that a formation like the U.S. 1st Armored Division won’t have much of a role in a maritime crisis over Taiwan.) Finally, the U.S. should add air-defense and ballistic-missile-defense capabilities to Europe. As during the Cold War, Europe should be an armed camp in the face of Russian aggression.

 

Fifth, Turkey, with NATO support, should consider closing the Turkish Straits to Russian warships in transit to the conflict zone. According to the Montreux Convention, Turkey may close the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles in wartime or if threatened by a foreign power. The Black Sea should be turned into a salty lake.

 

Sixth, the West should move swiftly to disentangle our economies from Russian energy imports. This is no small task — and one that has been made immeasurably more difficult by Western stupidity, from the U.S. government’s hostility to domestic oil and gas development to Germany’s shuttering of its nuclear-powered electric plants. A full disentanglement will take years — and it will be extremely costly. We’ve wasted enough time already. We shouldn’t waste any more.

 

Seventh, NATO should offer membership to Finland and Sweden. Finnish and Swedish leaders have, in recent weeks, spoken openly of the possibility of applying for membership in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. They should know that the door is open.

 

Eighth, the West should move quickly to expel Russian diplomats, close down Russian consulates in the West (which are often little more than espionage hubs), and make life generally more uncomfortable for Russians in international organizations, such as the U.N. The Security Council, of course, has been shown to be feckless, toothless, and not significantly more than a bad joke. Indeed, the Security Council was actually in session last night, complete with diplomats busy giving little speeches, at the exact moment Russian missiles began flying. The U.S. and our allies should consider throwing our collective weight behind the probably outlandish Ukrainian idea to suspend Russia’s seat and veto on the Security Council. There’s been a lot of talk and threats about making Putin’s regime a pariah. Let’s turn this talk into action.

 

And finally, the West should support humanitarian and relief efforts in Ukraine. We should shelter dissidents and refugees. We should speak out ceaselessly for the Russians and Ukrainians lost inside the new Russian gulag. And we should generously fund democracy efforts in Ukraine and in Russia — both openly and clandestinely.

 

None of these steps can, even taken together, eject the Russians and free Ukraine. But as a dark cloud falls across Europe and the West wakes up to the return of power grabs and open warfare on the continent, this is where we should start.