By Jim Geraghty
Wednesday, November 03, 2021
And how are you this morning? Here in
Virginia, the sun is shining a little brighter, the birds are chirping sweetly,
the leaves are turning vibrant colors, and Republicans just stomped the
bejeebers out of Democrats up and down the ballot. A “bloodbath,” as University
of Virginia professor Larry Sabato told Rachel Maddow last night. “A
five-alarm fire,” as Van Jones declared on CNN.
Glenn Youngkin won the Virginia governor’s race by about
70,000 votes over Terry McAuliffe, Winsome Sears won the lieutenant-governor’s
race by about 56,000 votes, and Jason Miyares won the state attorney-general’s
race by about 34,000 votes. Democratic incumbent AG Mark Herring was the guy who called upon governor Ralph Northam to resign,
despite his own past wearing of blackface. The night was so bad that McAuliffe’s surrogates canceled on Chuck Todd and
wouldn’t come out and eat their humble pie.
Republicans picked up six seats to win control of the
House of Delegates — the oldest continuous legislative body in the Western
Hemisphere — with 51 seats to the Democrats’ 49 seats. This is one of the
indicators that even though Terry McAuliffe was a deeply flawed candidate, the
problem for Democrats was not just him. (With McAuliffe’s defeat, the last gasp of the Clinton political legacy ends.) This
should dispel the defeatist “Virginia is a blue state now” talk among
Republicans.
We’re used to thinking of “culture war” issues as
abortion. And with the Supreme Court potentially reconsidering Roe v.
Wade, maybe that issue will indeed return as the centerpiece of America’s
debate about social issues. But I suspect we’re witnessing a redefinition of
what kinds of non-economic, non-foreign-policy issues are at the forefront of
voters’ minds.
With the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, every parent suddenly
faced a slew of unprecedented big questions. When will my child’s public school
reopen? Because online “distance learning” just isn’t as good as face-to-face
interaction with a teacher and peers, how much is my child falling behind? When
my child’s public school does reopen, how many days a week will it be open? And
when can kids have lunch the way they normally do? How much longer will kids be
required to wear masks? All along, school administrators and teachers’ unions
always seemed to drag their feet on every single step back toward pre-pandemic
normality.
Once schools did come back, some parents didn’t like what
they saw in their children’s curricula and also how schools handled some big
issues. What did it mean if teachers were instructed to “embrace critical race theory,” “engage in race-conscious
teaching and learning,” “teach code-switching in positive, nonjudgmental ways,”
and “re-engineer attitudes and belief systems”? What kinds of materials are
appropriate for sex education, and what kinds of materials are age-appropriate
for school libraries? Do schools quickly and accurately report sexual assault
and violence, or are they trying to sweep it under the rug?
And when parents objected, the National School Boards Association labeled them “domestic
terrorists” and demanded “the resources of the U.S. Department of
Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Department of Homeland Security,
U.S. Secret Service, and its National Threat Assessment Center” to investigate
them.
As Robby Soave summarized, “The
public school system abused families’ trust during the pandemic, and the
reckoning has just begun.”
Nebraska senator Ben Sasse contended that the teachers’
unions delivered the governor’s mansion to Youngkin.
“The Virginia GOP’s MVP has to go to Randi Weingarten,
the leader of a radical teachers’ union that ignored actual teaching,
politicized everything, shut down schools, and literally tried to tell parents
to shut up. Congrats, Randi, you really turned out the vote,” Sasse declared in
a released statement. “Congrats to Glenn Youngkin as well, on a sane, well-run
campaign — and may all American politicians finally reject drunken, anti-parent
rage from radicals like Randi Weingarten.”
Next time someone mentions the political genius of Barack
Obama, remind them of the former president’s appearance on behalf of McAuliffe:
“We don’t have time to be wasting on these phony trumped-up culture wars, this
fake outrage that right-wing media peddles to juice their ratings.” When push
came to shove, Obama adopted that same argument that parents had a “false
consciousness” that prevented them from realizing that the public schools and
school boards knew what was best for their children. Obama is as out of touch
with the reality of the lives of suburban Virginia parents as any other multi-millionaire with a Martha’s Vineyard mansion whose private-school-attending
children have long since left the nest.
If Virginia was the loss Democrats dreaded, New Jersey is
the potential loss that is hitting them like a meteorite crashing through the
atmosphere. As of this writing, shortly before 7:30 a.m., the New Jersey
governor’s race is too close to call. Republican Jack Ciattarelli leads
incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy by 1,193
votes, 49.65 percent to 49.6 percent. The remaining ballots will probably put
Murphy over the top, but it’s amazing how few Democrats even contemplated that
Murphy and his pandemic policies could possibly generate a backlash.
Note that a few polls in the past weeks showed
Ciattarelli within about four percentage points, but others had Murphy ahead by
eight to eleven percentage points. Once again, we see evidence that pollsters
are systematically missing a considerable chunk of Republican-leaning voters.
Away from the governor’s races, the news was good for conservatives
and bad for progressives.
The city of Minneapolis rejected a ballot initiative to
replace its existing police department with a “public safety department,” 56
percent to 44 percent. The city of Buffalo rejected an openly socialist, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-endorsed
Democratic mayoral candidate and reelected the incumbent mayor as a write-in
candidate. On Long Island, Republicans won the district-attorney races in Nassau and
Suffolk counties. Rising Republican star Francis Suarez, the incumbent
mayor of Miami, was reelected with 78 percent of the vote.
In Texas, voters approved eight state ballot initiatives, including
one barring the state from limiting religious services and allowing residents
of nursing homes and assisted-living facilities to designate one essential
caregiver who cannot be denied in-person visitation rights. In
three counties in Virginia, ballot initiatives to remove or relocate
Confederate monuments were rejected, and none won more than 33 percent.
The progressive Left got its collective and collectivist
butts kicked just about everywhere it was on the ballot.
The Lincoln Project is utterly humiliated. (Then again,
those former GOP consultants can now accurately brag that they helped elect a
Republican.) On September 27, the Lincoln Project pledged, “We’re coming
for you, Glenn Youngkin.” Considering that organization’s scandal-tarred past,
we should emphasize that “Youngkin” is one word.
Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema must feel awfully
vindicated this morning. Do you think that either senator woke up this morning
and felt compelled to make more concessions so that both the Bipartisan
Infrastructure Framework and Build Back Better legislation can get to the
president’s desk? Or do you think Manchin’s proposal for a “strategic pause” on
spending “trillions on new government programs and additional stimulus funding”
makes more sense?
Democrats lost for a lot of reasons last night, but a big
one is that the economic concerns that Democratic officeholders and candidates
are talking about — Weatherize buildings for climate change! Incentives
for solar-panel production! Implement universal preschool! Remove the cap
on state and local tax deductions! — are not connected to the biggest
economic concerns on voter’s minds: Why is my grocery bill so high? Why
is it so expensive to put gasoline in my car? Why do so many stores have such
terrible supply-chain issues? Why does every store, restaurant, bar, and company
seem so understaffed? Why does the sea outside of the country’s
biggest ports look like rush-hour traffic with so many cargo ships full of
imports just sitting there?
The average Democratic official isn’t living the same
life as the average voter and isn’t worrying about the same problems — and that
widening gap caught up to Democrats last night.
ADDENDUM: The cherry on top of the ice-cream
sundae of last night is a wonderful sports moment. After Major League Baseball
moved the All-Star Game out of Atlanta to protest Georgia’s voting-law reforms,
the Atlanta Braves went on to win the World Series.
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