By Rich Lowry
Friday, October 22, 2021
His rallies and polling numbers are still strong, but
there could be weakness under the surface.
Republican politicians can be forgiven for thinking
that the GOP is Trump’s world, and they only live in it at his sufferance.
He not only survived January 6 and his second impeachment —
he has thrived since.
Trump’s rallies are still remarkably
well-attended, he is making progress in his project of killing the careers of
Republicans who supported his impeachment, and big majorities of Republicans
tell pollsters they want Trump to run for president again.
And yet, there are reasons to believe Trump’s dominance
is exaggerated and that it is slowly degrading, such that by the time the 2024
Republican primaries roll around, he’ll be challengeable and beatable if he
runs.
It’s not unusual for a former president to own his party
until someone comes and takes it from him — Bill Clinton prior to Barack Obama,
for example.
What’s different is that parties typically aren’t kind to
one-term presidents who lost their reelection bids, and generally former
presidents aren’t so bent on exercising control over their parties once they
vacate the White House.
Part of the reason Trump has clung to his fanciful
stolen-election narrative is to avoid the stench of defeat of Jimmy Carter and George
H. W. Bush. On top of this, Trump has an intact political operation that is
paying a lot of attention to his potential endorsements and how they will or
won’t enhance his own power.
This obviously makes Trump an important player, and maybe
more. But there are indications of an undertow and factors that might increase
it in the years ahead.
Trump’s media footprint is much reduced. Data from
SocialFlow shows engagement with Trump stories plummeting in March of this
year, and it took another jag down in August and September.
As for Trump’s polling numbers, Republicans might tell
pollsters they want him to run again as a way to stick a finger in the eye of
the media or as a general statement of warm feelings toward him. Even if these
findings are based on entirely forthcoming and sincere sentiments, wanting Trump
to run is a threshold question that falls short of a commitment to vote for him
two and a half years from now.
Trump presumably will be vulnerable to electability
questions. He lost last fall in part because Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton
among suburban voters and independents. Biden is alienating these voters, but
there’s nothing to indicate that Trump has done anything since November 2020 to
make himself less repellent to them.
GOP politicians have every reason to do what they can to
keep Trump and his voters on board in the interest of a unified base in the
run-up to the 2022 midterms. But if Republicans take Congress next year and are
worried about keeping it in 2024, they will be wary of once again needing
candidates to run better than Trump in swing districts to keep their gavels.
Trump has an increasingly self-referential message. In
2016, he talked of fighting for his voters and hammered neglected issues of
concern to them, foremost among them trade and immigration. Now, he urges those
voters to fight for him based on the imperative of denying his
loss, which is of overwhelming concern to his ego and continued political
viability.
At the end of the day, what primary voters in both
parties most want is to win. And this is Trump’s true Achilles’ heel. The fact
is that he lost to Joe Biden and, despite last-minute changes in election
procedures and the media and social-media landscape being stacked again him, it
was fundamentally his doing.
His chief vulnerability is that, eventually, someone will
put this to him directly, and it will land.
Perhaps if Trump decides to make the plunge in 2024, he
will clear the field and sweep to his third consecutive GOP presidential
nomination. His surface-level strength at the moment, though, might obscure a
weakness that will tell over time.
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