By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, February 01, 2020
The Fox News website highlights “hot topics” at the top
of the page. As I write, the topics are: “Kobe Bryant dead,” “Trump
impeachment,” and “Coronavirus.” Compelling — and in the last case terrifying —
stories. But something is missing: the Democratic primary.
The Iowa caucus will be held in a matter of days. New
Hampshire votes a week after that. Twelve Democrats are still in the race.
Nobody cares.
Maybe that’s harsh. No doubt the candidates’ mothers are
paying attention. Yet in two decades of serious observation of politics, I have
not seen a presidential primary that exerts less of a hold on the nation’s
attention than this one. Why?
The obvious answer is impeachment. It is all Washington
cares about. The trial of President Trump hasn’t just overshadowed the
campaign. It’s stopped it. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar,
who are in the game in Iowa, as well as Michael Bennet, who is not, have been
strapped to their chairs. Think of all the selfies Warren has missed out on.
She must be despondent.
Because the television camera in the Senate chamber is
pointed at the rostrum, Warren and Sanders can’t even communicate to their
supporters through hand gestures. Nor have Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg
capitalized on the opportunity of having Iowa to themselves. They can’t break
through wall-to-wall coverage of senators’ questions and legal maneuvers, of
John Bolton’s book, of Mitch McConnell’s quest to end the trial as soon as
possible.
True, impeachment has kept Biden’s name in the news. But
not in a way he would like. Trump’s defense has drawn further attention to
Hunter Biden’s questionable position on the board of Ukrainian gas giant
Burisma. What was Hunter being paid for? Relationship advice? His dad doesn’t
have a good answer. Whether he likes it or not, impeachment reinforces the
impression that Joe Biden is a lifelong D.C. politician whose family benefits
from his connections.
Look at the numbers. Prior to Nancy Pelosi’s announcement
of the impeachment inquiry on September 24, Biden was at 44 percent favorable,
49 percent unfavorable. Last week he was 41 percent favorable, 53 percent
unfavorable. That isn’t progress.
President Trump’s job approval rating hasn’t budged. It
was 45–52 in the RealClearPolitics
average then and now. And Trump has improved in head-to-head matchups. In the
late October ABC News/Washington Post poll, Biden held a 15-point advantage
over Trump. As of last week’s poll, his lead had been cut to four points.
If Nancy Pelosi thought impeachment would help the
Democratic front-runner, she was mistaken. That’s not strategy. It’s what Will
Ferrell, portraying George W. Bush, once called “strategery.” (Of course,
Pelosi’s objective may have been simply to insulate herself from a left-wing rebellion.)
Biden’s troubles suggest another reason for the lack of
excitement. The candidates are weak and uninteresting. Biden is barely
comprehensible. Buttigieg has all the pizzazz of a PowerPoint. Warren reminds
you of your least favorite professor.
Sanders and his surrogate-successor Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez draw crowds. But so did the Jacobins. The democratic socialists
are exciting, sure. They are also terrifying.
How can you tell the rest of the Democratic field is
uninspired? Two billionaires have bought support through supremacy of the
airwaves. It’s not Mike Bloomberg’s personality that has contributed to his
rise. It’s his checkbook.
Worse than the dullness of the contestants is the
plodding horse race. Biden has floated above his rivals since the beginning.
The one major change in the dynamic has been Warren’s rise and fall. The two
exciting moments came when Kamala Harris ambushed Biden in the first debate and
Tulsi Gabbard sideswiped Harris in the second. Months passed without any
incident. The most recent controversy is whether Sanders told Warren a woman
can’t be president. Surely they can do better than that.
Sanders victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would liven
things up. For a while. The fundamental problem is the Democratic primary is a
sideshow.
For four-and-a-half years the main event in American
politics has been Donald Trump. Policy isn’t the issue. He is the issue.
Everything revolves around him. “Our political solar system, in short, has been
characterized not by two equally competing suns,” wrote the political scientist
Samuel Lubell, “but by a sun and a moon. It is within the majority party that
the issues of any particular period are fought out; while the minority party
shines in reflected radiance of the heat thus generated.”
The party system Lubell described no longer exists. The
parties are shells. The incumbent has changed parties five times. He settled on
the GOP four years before winning the presidency. Bernie Sanders is running for
the nomination of a party he has never joined and doesn’t trust.
What matters today are individual brands. And no brand is
more prominent, more polarizing, more overpowering than Donald J. Trump’s.
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