By Robert VerBruggen
Monday, September 04, 2017
Note: This article originally appeared in the July
31, 2017, issue of National Review magazine.
After adjusting for inflation, hourly wages in the
private sector grew 0.4 percent between April of last year and April of this
year. The four-fifths of these workers who labor in “production and
nonsupervisory” roles saw growth of just 0.1 percent.
These were surprising numbers, given the state of the
economy. Not only are we well into a recovery, but the unemployment rate has
finally returned to its pre-recession level. Normally, employers need to start
raising wages once they no longer have a deep reserve of unemployed workers
they can turn to if someone threatens to quit.
But in general, slow wage growth is not really news to
Americans. The liberal Economic Policy Institute, after all, is fond of
claiming that despite significant growth in the overall economy, wages have
been stagnant for the typical worker since the 1970s. The picture EPI paints is
a bit too gloomy, owing to the use of a problematic inflation adjustment. But
when the very existence of wage growth hinges on one’s choice of deflator, it’s
safe to say there’s a problem.
That problem is multifaceted. Indeed, every step of the
process that leads to wage growth seems to be faltering. And to make matters
worse, economists disagree on even the most basic facts of what’s happening and
why. The matter presents an urgent challenge to policymakers across the
political spectrum, and an opportunity for Republicans to do right by the
voters who put them in charge of the House, the Senate, and the presidency all
at once. Getting wages headed in the right direction again, or at least
ameliorating the effects of sluggish wage growth, is at this point an
imperative.
Writing in 2014, Barry P. Bosworth of the Brookings
Institution offered a handy breakdown of the “primary determinants” of wage
growth: “(1) gains in labor productivity, (2) the division of earned income
between labor and capital (profits), and (3) the allocation of labor
compensation among wages and nonwage benefits.”
Productivity growth is the ultimate root of wage growth:
If workers aren’t producing more output for each hour they work, employers
cannot raise hourly wages without also raising prices, which eats away the wage
gain through inflation. And productivity growth has been abysmal for the decade
since the end of the tech boom. Even more troubling, the tech boom aside, it’s
been flagging for much of the past 40 years.
Explanations for the falloff abound. Some say it’s a
statistical artifact of one kind or another. Maybe the numbers are failing to
capture the benefits of major technological gains that don’t cost a thing to
the user (and thus produce no measurable “output”), such as Internet search
engines. Maybe the data are thrown off by the increasing tendency of companies
to stash profits overseas, removing them from the measured output of American
workers. Maybe people are spending more time goofing off in the workplace, and
their productivity during the time they actually work has gone up.
Or maybe productivity really isn’t growing as fast as it
used to. This is a view most prominently espoused by the Northwestern
University economist Robert Gordon, who asserts that today’s technological
advancements — even the continuing exploitation of the Internet’s many
possibilities — simply don’t compare with, say, the harnessing of electricity.
Tyler Cowen, an economist at George Mason University, eloquently drives this
point home in his book The Complacent
Class: If the pre-1973 pace of productivity growth had continued, he notes,
median household income would be $40,000 a year higher than it is today. Most
people would happily go without the Internet for that amount of cash. So while
some benefits of technology are indeed excluded from productivity statistics,
we shouldn’t get carried away with that talking point.
When productivity does improve, the next step of the
wage-growth process is for at least some of the gains to be given to workers
rather than owners of capital. For a long time, economists assumed that the
“labor share of income” was more or less fixed around 62 percent — but it fell
markedly starting at the turn of the century, hitting a low of 56 percent
before finally ticking up again over the past few years to about 58 percent.
Here too there are a variety of potential causes. Some
economists point to the automation of routine tasks (which is to say, the
substitution of capital for labor). Others point out that in developed
countries, globalization typically takes the form of offshoring the most
labor-intensive tasks. Further possibilities include massive accumulation of
capital by the wealthy (the view of lefty superstar economist Thomas Piketty);
a fall in investment prices, making capital more attractive relative to labor;
and the declining bargaining power of workers thanks to the demise of unions
and the consolidation of major industries.
Statistical artifacts may play a role here, too.
Government agencies do a poor job of classifying the income of the
self-employed, who present a difficult situation because they provide both
labor and capital. The standard measure of the labor share fails to account for
capital depreciation (i.e., it measures the total
income of capital owners, including money they have to spend replacing
equipment that went bad). And by one analysis, much or even all of the
disproportionate growth of capital can be traced to the rising value of
housing, which is certainly “capital” but not really what we think of when we
fret about the falling labor share of income.
Even if productivity rises, and even if workers receive
some of the gains, the new money might have to fund rising benefits rather than
wages. Benefits are currently about 32 percent of total compensation in the
U.S. They were below 28 percent as recently as the turn of the millennium and
rose especially dramatically between 1950 and 1990.
One final issue is worth noting: American wages are
facing demographic headwinds as well, as high-earning Baby Boomers retire and
low-paid twentysomethings gain a foothold in the job market. This shift slowed
during the recession, as many Boomers delayed retirement and many younger
workers couldn’t find jobs, but is now making up for lost time. In a certain
sense, this makes slow wage growth partly just a benign side effect of
demographic trends, but it also highlights a deep structural problem for our
economy: fewer productive workers supporting more retirees than in the past.
There are two ways for policymakers to address low wage
growth: They can fight it at any or all of the choke points mentioned above,
and they can ameliorate its effects.
For conservatives, one upside of the first approach is
that it could involve a lot of things they want to do anyway. Many of the
reforms that could spur economic growth, for instance, could do so in part by
boosting productivity. Cutting away unnecessary regulations would allow workers
to spend their time on tasks that actually create value rather than on
compliance. Clearing out bad incentives in the tax code could encourage
businesses to use their workers and capital in the most efficient way possible
instead of chasing tax breaks.
Some causes of declining labor share also have ready-made
conservative solutions. The Right has recently become quite concerned about the
rise of crony capitalism and “rent-seeking” by powerful businesses; curtailing
this activity could give workers a better bargaining position. Anticompetitive
labor practices such as contracts with “non-compete clauses,” meaning that an
employee who quits cannot take a job with a competitor for a specified period
of time, deserve scrutiny as well. Conservatives might also take a hard look at
trade agreements and ask how they might better serve American interests,
bearing in mind the populist furor unleashed by Rust Belt job losses (which, to
be sure, were only partly the result of trade).
As for the rising share of compensation consumed by
benefits instead of wages, health-care costs are an obvious concern. If
Republicans can reduce these costs by introducing more free-market incentives
into the health-care sector, they can put more money in workers’ pockets. On
this, all eyes are now on the Senate and its health-care bill.
All the reforms just discussed could improve the
situation, but they are unlikely to reverse the trend entirely. Many of these
phenomena — stalled wage and productivity growth, a declining labor share of
income — are not unique to the United States but are seen across the developed
world, in very different countries that pursue very different policies. It’s
possible that, owing to economic and technological developments that will not
be stopping anytime soon, we will simply be living with this issue for a while
and need to take steps to cope with it.
This is a tricky matter for us conservatives, with our
preference for limited government and skepticism of income redistribution. The
one way we do like to make sure people have more money in their pockets —
income-tax cuts — seems a dubious fit for this problem, because the lower- and
middle-income Americans whose wages have stagnated don’t pay much in income
taxes to begin with. But there are some helpful policies available here that
apply conservative principles.
First, while the working and middle classes pay little in
income tax, they typically do pay payroll taxes, the money taken out of
paychecks to fund Social Security and Medicare. Cutting these taxes would be
one option. Ideally, such cuts would be paid for with spending cuts elsewhere
or reforms to the entitlements that the taxes fund. But regardless of the
details, if Republicans enact tax reform this year — whether it’s a
deficit-increasing ten-year tax cut Ă la George W. Bush or a long-term,
deficit-neutral reform Ă la Ronald Reagan — they should certainly make sure
that payroll taxes are included.
And second, Republicans can pursue safety-net reforms
that are consistent with conservative values but also materially help
struggling families. Conservatives have long touted the Earned Income Tax
Credit (EITC), for instance, as a way to help the poor while encouraging work.
As the name implies, the EITC boosts the incomes of those who earn low wages
and is not available to those who don’t work. But while it’s called a “tax
credit,” it’s “refundable,” meaning that in truth it’s a subsidy — those who
qualify for the credit can receive it even if they don’t have any tax liability
to offset.
Conservative scholars have suggested a variety of tweaks
to this policy. It could be turned into a straightforward wage subsidy that
injects extra money directly into workers’ paychecks as opposed to a benefit
seen only at tax time, and it could do more to help childless workers, who are
now largely excluded from participating. These ideas are especially attractive
if they are funded by consolidating poorer-performing elements of the safety
net rather than through tax increases or deficit spending.
Donald Trump, for all his flaws, has demonstrated the
electoral possibilities of a conservatism infused with populist sensibilities
and a concern for the working class. Flagging wage growth gives Trump a chance
to show voters his rhetoric was sincere, and congressional Republicans a chance
to win back a base disaffected with the GOP establishment.
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