By Helen Raleigh
Tuesday, September 05, 2017
Less than two weeks ago, U.S. Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson praised Kim Jong-Un for having “demonstrated some level of restraint
that we’ve not seen in the past.” As if determined to prove Tillerson wrong,
Pyongyang first fired an intercontinental ballistic missile over Japan. Then on
Sunday, September 3, Kim gave the order to detonate what he claimed to be a
hydrogen bomb (H-bomb) that could be attached to a missile capable of reaching
the mainland United States.
Whether North Korea successfully tested an H-bomb is yet
to be verified. But early indicators show the nuclear device that Pyongyang
tested was much more powerful than anything it tested before. Chinese media
reported that the test “triggered a 6.3-magnitude quake followed by a
4.6-magnitude tremor, and was felt throughout northeastern China.”
Sunday’s was North Korea’s sixth nuclear test, but the
first since Trump became president. Naturally, everyone assumes that Kim
Jong-Un’s aggression targets the United States, so everyone is asking what the
U.S. response should be. What we have missed is that the other real target of
Kim’s aggression is China.
How China Fueled
North Korea’s Nuclearization
After each North Korean missile and nuclear weapon test,
China always condemns Pyongyang and states all nations should work towards
denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. Yet if not for China, Pyongyang probably
wouldn’t have made such speedy progress in its nuclear weapon development.
On October 16, 1964, China successfully tested its first
nuclear weapon, a 16-kiloton bomb, at a site in Inner Mongolia. It came as a
shock to the United States because U.S. intelligence initially doubted China
had enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear bomb. Even after China’s
successful test, the U.S. military arrogantly declared that “the acquisition by
Communist China of nuclear weapons will not, for the indefinite future, alter
the real relations of power among the major states, or the balance of military
power in Asia.” History has proved they couldn’t have been more wrong.
The political situation in Southeast Asia soon got
complicated. China and India’s relationship went sour after two border wars in
1962 and 1967. After India successfully tested its first nuclear device in
1972, China’s leader, Mao Zedong, decided to prop up Pakistan’s military
capacity to create a counterweight to India. Mao and Pakistani President
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto reached an agreement in 1976, stating that China would
provide support to Pakistan’s nuclear weapon development.
In his book, “The Beautiful Country and the Middle
Kingdom,” John Pomfret, a long time Asia correspondent to The Washington Post, wrote that “In 1982, Deng Xiaoping authorized
the transfer to Pakistan of a blue-print for one of China’s early nuclear bombs
along with 110 pounds of weapons-grade uranium, enough for two nuclear
devices.” China proliferated nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan throughout
the 1980s and 1990s, and such action has led to grave consequences. A group led
by Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan sold China’s blueprint to Libya, Iran,
and North Korea. As they say, the rest is history.
China’s nuclear proliferation to Pakistan supplied North
Korea the nuclear technology it needed. Meanwhile, Chinese trade and aid helped
sustain North Korea economically and provided Pyongyang the means to become a
nuclear power. Thus, China can’t claim it’s an innocent bystander of North
Korea’s nuclearization today. Yet, despite China’s support, North Korea had
little appreciation for China’s patronage.
Soured Sino-North
Korea Relations
Once upon a time, China and North Korea were really
close. Chairman Mao described the two communist regimes’ relations as close as
“lips and teeth.” At least 180,000 Chinese soldiers gave their lives during the
Korean War. After Chinese leader Mao’s passing, the two countries began to
slowly drift apart. China opened its door to the rest of the world. It embraced
“market reform with socialist characteristics” and dramatically improved its
economy and standards of living.
North Korea turned inward, becoming a dynastic
totalitarian regime. It devoted all its limited resources to sustaining
generations of the Kim family’s luxurious lifestyle and military buildup, while
its people continue to live in poverty and misery.
After North Korea tested a nuclear weapon in October
2006, China supported a United Nations Security Council Resolution to impose
sanctions on North Korea, after maneuvering to water the sanctions down. This
marked the first sign of a strained Sino-North Korea relationship. China
further irritated North Korea by increasing its trades with South Korea. Even
though the bilateral trade volumes between China and North Korea continue to
increase and China doesn’t always either support or fully implement international
sanctions against North Korea, North Korea still feels a sense of betrayal.
The relationship really went downhill after Kim Jong-Un
took over. Kim openly ignored China’s warnings and aggressively pursued nuclear
weapon development. In the process of consolidating power, he killed North
Korean elites who used to work closely with China, including his own uncle and
half-brother. North Korean official media also made several rare but open
criticisms of China, warning “China had better ponder over the grave
consequences to be entailed by its reckless act of chopping down the pillar of
the DPRK-China relations.”
China has always been quick to point out that the United
States is the target of North Korea’s aggression. But if we examine the timing
of North Korea’s recent missile tests and the nuclear weapon test, it seems
Pyongyang has acted defiantly to China too. For instance, Kim Jong-Un ordered
missile tests when Chinese President Xi and U.S. President Trump met in April.
He did it again in May when China was hosting its “One Belt One Road” summit.
The latest H-bomb test took place when the BRICS
countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—were convening in China
for their annual summit. So each time China was playing its role as a
benevolent rising power and hosting an important event, North Korea did
something to ruin the party and steal China’s thunder.
It’s an open secret that China has little love for North
Korea. Chinese leaders haven’t invited Kim Jong-Un to visit Beijing so far.
China keeps supporting North Korea because “it dislikes even more the prospect
of North Korea’s collapse and the unification of the Korean Peninsula with
Seoul as the capital,” writes Richard N. Haass. Thus Chinese leaders continue
to view North Korea as a necessary evil to serve as a buffer between China and
the United States and its ally.
That kind of old-school, Cold War mentality is now being
challenged inside China. The Chinese public has a very negative opinion of the
North Korean regime. Just like Americans, the majority of Chinese view Kim as a
crazy guy and the North Korean regime as a security threat to China. In recent
years, Chinese elites, sensing the shifting attitudes from the public as well
as the party leadership, began to openly advocate for China either “not be a
saviour if the North Korean regime collapsed or started a war” or “ abandon
Pyongyang and support the unification of the Korean peninsula.”
China Needs to
Step up for Its Own Security
There’s a Chinese saying, yang hu wei huan (養虎為患):
“nurturing a tiger invites calamity,” which means indulging one’s enemy is
asking for trouble. This is the situation China is in right now. North Korea is
a tiger China indulged and now threatens to bite the hands that fed it.
Chinese President Xi desperately needs stability
domestically and along China’s border in preparation for the upcoming
leadership reshuffling at the 19th Communist Party Congress, which takes place
in October. But Kim Jong-Un won’t let Xi have it.
The latest nuclear weapon test created several headaches
for Xi. One is the concern of possible nuclear contamination of China’s
northeast region, which shares a border with North Korea. Since environmental
pollution has been the number one cause for street protests and social unrest
in China, Chinese state-backed Global
Times declared that if China confirms that Pyongyang’s nuclear test
contaminated Chinese soil, “the current framework for Sino-North Korean ties
will break down,” and “the conflict between China and North Korea will
transcend any conflict between the US and North Korea.”
Another concern China has is that Japan is making more
and more noise to acquire nuclear weapons in response to the North Korean
buildup. Given the historical animosity between China and Japan, the last thing
China wants to see is a nuclearization of Japan. It should be obvious to China
now that North Korea is no longer the security buffer China seeks, but rather a
time bomb that will explode and drag China down with it.
International crises sometimes makes strange bedfellows.
The United States and former Soviet Union joined forces to fight the Nazis.
China and the United States became allies against the former Soviet Union’s
aggression. Recognizing that North Korea threatens the security of both China
and the United States should change the strategic calculations and approaches
of both nations.
The time is ripe for China to ditch past pretense and a
Cold War mentality, instead becoming an active and honest partner with the
United States to address a problem that China helped create. Neither China nor
the United States has any good options to deal with North Korea on its own, but
by working together, and only by working together, the two countries can come
up with the most effective solution with the minimum costs to them and to the
rest of the region.
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