By Tom Rogan
Friday, May 12, 2017
Since September 2014, Gérard Araud, a career diplomat,
has served as France’s ambassador to the United States. This interview was
conducted on May 11 at the French embassy in Washington. It has been slightly
edited for brevity and language clarity.
Tom Rogan: What is your take on the
election of Emmanuel Macron?
Gérard Araud: Well, first, I think what is
striking is that we have exactly the same, in a sense, political atmospherics
in France as in the U.S. and the U.K. And, I think, in a large part of Western
democracies, which is basically that we have a revolt by some of our citizens
against the elite, against the traditional political parties. Basically these
people are telling us “we have tried the Left, we have tried the Right. You
have not delivered. So we are ready to try something else.” But the difference
— a critical difference — is that [in Macron] we had a populist guy running on
the centrist platform. Basically pro-European, forward-looking, open. But
Macron has never been elected, he’s 39, has never run for office. And in the
French political system, this is unusual. Usually when you are running for
president [of France] you have been around for 20 years. Macron did what
Hillary Clinton could not do, because she was the political symbol of the
system. But at the same time, [Macron] is coming from the system: he went to
all the right schools, but nobody knew him two years ago.
Rogan: When
Macron was elected president, did your staff breathe a sigh of relief?
Araud:
Everybody has the right to their own opinion. But I think, I guess most of the
diplomats were relieved. What is particularly worrying for us diplomats was Le
Pen’s idea to get out of the European Union. And there is really a basic
fundamental difference between the U.K. and continental Europe on the European
Union. The difference is that the U.K. was not invaded, not occupied in the
Second World War while the rest of Europe was totally devastated. Two world
wars, one genocide. So there was a sort of will to build something different.
There is something emotional in continental Europe versus the U.K. So for
people from my generation, but also for diplomats, the idea of getting out of
the European Union was really something major. Really it would change — not
only our foreign policy — but change what our governments, Left and Right, have
been doing for the last 60 years.
Rogan: How
much pressure do you think President Macron will be under, in the sense that if
he does not deliver on the new politics he has promised, it might empower the
next leader — or the current leader [Marine Le Pen] — of the National Front
party in the next election?
Araud: It’s
really my personal estimation. I have publicly said that if Macron doesn’t
succeed, next time Le Pen will be elected. It has been a sort of mobilization
of everybody against the National Front. But what is behind the populism, it’s
a genuine concern. The concerns, the discontent of the people are there. So
it’s a critical presidency.
Rogan: President
Trump will meet with President Macron at the NATO summit in Brussels later this
month. Trump is likely to bring up his demand that NATO members, including
France, spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. Do you think President Macron will
pledge France toward that target?
Araud: Yes.
Actually, he has already. France — our forces — are fighting on the ground. And
when I met [Defense] Secretary Mattis, he told me immediately, “you are our
best allies right now on the battlefield.” So we have a very strong military
relationship with the U.S.
Rogan: One of
the areas [of cooperation] behind the scenes that Secretary James Mattis was
hinting at there, I’m sure, is the cooperation of U.S. and French Special
Forces in Syria. Do you believe that President Macron will increase that force
presence?
Araud: I don’t
know. I’m not a spokesman for the president-elect. But for us, Syria is a
national-security issue. And really for more than one year we have been
insisting on retaking Raqqa. Because it is from Raqqa that most of the terrorist
attacks against France — but also against Turkey — have been prepared. A lot of
the French-speaking terrorists are in Raqqa. For us, Raqqa is a strategic goal.
So I don’t think there will be any reduction in our commitment.
Rogan: What
are some of the challenges and opportunities you see in the transition between
President Obama and President Trump? And what is your reaction to Trump’s
decision to use force following the recent chemical-weapons attack in Syria?
Araud: Every
eight years the people in Washington discover what a transition in Washington
is. And it is always complicated, slow, and a bit chaotic! When you are
elected, you want to reward loyalty, and after a while you discover that
competence is also useful. And in a sense all the foreign ambassadors are
facing the same challenge: finding people to speak to. But we have a very good
dialogue with the National Security Council. And again, the fact that it is a
general [as national-security adviser], General H. R. McMaster, is a plus,
because he knows the French forces. So immediately we have had a very good
dialogue with him. The transition was also slow in 2009 and 2001.
The problem [under President Obama] in Syria basically
was that Secretary Kerry tried to negotiate with the Russians without leverage.
And you know, frankly, with the Russians you don’t get anything without
leverage. So the [retaliatory chemical-attack] strike in itself, why not? It
was a way of reestablishing a balance of power on this issue. But the question
is, the strike itself is useless if you don’t have a strategic vision. The
reason for a strike is not only that people of dying. You are not expressing
your gut feelings; you are expressing your policy. So the question is, after
that, what is the policy? And if you have leverage, it means that you want to
negotiate something with the Russians.
Rogan: France
has very capable intelligence services. What do you think President-elect
Macron’s intelligence briefers will tell him about the nature of the
relationship between President Trump and the Russian government?
Araud: As you
can guess, I won’t answer this question. But I can say, I don’t know. And it’s
true, I don’t know. Really.
Rogan: As an
extension, the U.S. and France are very close partners on some things, but
adversaries in terms of business and economics espionage. How do you see this
dynamic going forward?
Araud: It says
something that we have exactly the same vision as the U.S. On the top of the
U.S. embassy in Paris there is one floor that has been built without respecting
the permits, without asking anybody, and we know that it’s one floor that has
all the [U.S. espionage] listening systems. And when it came out that they were
spying on the president’s [François Hollande’s] mobile phone, we requested that
the U.S. close [the intelligence center], and they didn’t do it. And that’s the
real world.
But our military-intelligence-sharing cooperation with
the Defense Department improved dramatically under former defense secretary Ash
Carter. And Secretary Mattis has told us he is ready to go beyond the existing
agreement. So for us, it has been totally critical. For instance, in the Sahel
region [of Africa], it is millions of square kilometers and it is very, very
tough in terms of intelligence. But the Americans are providing a lot of
technical intelligence so that we can strike the terrorists when they cross the
border from Libya into Tunisia, or from Mali into Niger. We have absolutely no
complaints. We have no signal that things will be different under President
Trump. And after the Paris attacks, the U.S. immediately volunteered to help us
— to increase the exchange of intelligence — and on our side, at least, we are
very satisfied.
Rogan: Do you
believe, especially in the field of NSA signal intelligence, that the U.S. has
helped save French lives in France?
Araud: Really,
I don’t know — it’s not because I am trying to underestimate what’s happening.
I am out of the intelligence channels.
Rogan: In this
building, as in any other embassy, there are a good number of intelligence
officers, but is there a segregation between you and those officers?
Araud: I
receive a lot of notes coming from our intelligence services, but they are
notes on the political aspect. There are notes on topics where it’s normal that
I would be informed. The exchange between the NSA and France — I don’t know why
I would know. The principle we have in France is “need to know.”
Rogan: Does
that same need to know precept apply to DGSE [France’s CIA/NSA] communication
with the French diplomatic staff?
Araud:
Exactly. The need to know.
Rogan:
President-elect Macron’s internationalism differs from President Trump’s
foreign-policy philosophy. With a special focus on the Paris climate agreement,
how would you advise Macron to persuade Americans that internationalism is in
their interest?
Araud:
Something I have learned over a long time as a diplomat is never to have a
discussion of principles or high politics. What matters for me is that the
Trump administration will decide on each issue. And so far, looking at the
first steps of the Trump administration, we find nothing really worrying for
us. And even on climate change, it was the only issue that Macron raised in his
phone call with President Trump. I have traveled extensively around the United
States discussing climate change. And when you leave the Beltway, you have the
impression that a lot of these ideological, silly debates are not of interest
to people. All the cities are committed to fighting climate change. All of the
major corporations are. My advice to President Macron — and Macron used these
words on the Paris climate agreement — is, Look at the words. First, it’s not
legally binding. It’s based on voluntary commitments. If we had 192 countries
signing this text, you can imagine they were not going to accept being in a
straitjacket. Each country is making its individual target. We wouldn’t really
like it that much, but if the Americans want to change their target, they can
do it. But for European public opinion, [if the U.S. withdraws from the Paris
agreement], it will be really a major shock, a major trauma.
Rogan: Do you
think one of the things that muddied the waters here is that, if you look back
to the Kyoto Protocol, many European nations didn’t meet pledged emissions
targets?
Araud: Yes. In
a sense the Kyoto Accords were a failure. But we [France] have learned the
lessons. It’s not one size fits all. Every nation has its own dynamic, its own
economy. You can’t infringe on sovereignty today. We were not going to try and
impose a straitjacket on everybody. As for implementation, you are not going to
send the army to impose commitments! As the French, we are optimistic. We see
in China and public opinion — and in India — that public opinion is exerting
pressure to act. And technology is moving very quickly. But what was important
in Paris is that, for the first time, we had every country saying, “We are
facing a serious challenge and we want to face it.” There will be bumps on the
road, but having the U.S. out of the 192-countries agreement will be bad. And
also, it will allow China to take the high moral ground.
Rogan: What
likelihood do you see of a major free-trade deal between the U.S. and the EU
under Trump and Macron?
Araud: The
problems were not born with Donald Trump. On both [EU and U.S.] sides, there
has been a lot of resistance to free trade. President Trump has expressed a
latent feeling that free trade is destroying jobs. We have been negotiating [a
trade deal] for three years, but three years is not long. There are a lot of
sensitive issues.
Rogan: Do you
believe that [British prime minister] Theresa May’s Brexit negotiating strategy
— the aggressive way she has articulated her belief about getting a good deal —
is delusional?
Araud: First,
psychologically, it’s very awkward. The EU was wrong to leak details about the
recent dinner between [Theresa May and EU negotiators]. But when May started
saying “Let’s make Brexit a success,” it’s nearly an aggression for the EU
side. It really made the answer of [EU Commission president] Jean-Claude Juncker
very predictable: “It can’t be a success.” Because for us, on the EU side, it’s
a lose–lose situation. We are sad to see the U.K. leaving the EU. And we do
think it will be bad for both sides. My personal conviction is, and I was not
surprised by this first spat, is that [Brexit] will be contentious and that
there could be a major rift. And maybe a hard Brexit. It will be extremely
complicated. You have, also, the yellow press in Britain, which will fan the
flames of any problems. Really, frankly, I hope I am wrong, but frankly I
believe it will be a very, very messy process.
Rogan: The
British government has said it might withhold intelligence sharing with the EU
if they don’t get a good Brexit deal. What are your thoughts on that?
Araud: They
said that once. After that, they realized it was devastating, that the exchange
of intelligence is a two-way street. The problem is that Brexit in real terms
is a tragedy for the British. They had access to the biggest single market in
the world, and they are going to lose that access. And basically, whatever they
say about their importance, they are alone negotiating in front of the
Continent. So they are trying to find arguments. But there’s a commonality of
security. If we stop a terrorist in Paris, he can’t go to London. The result of
the [Brexit] deal will be that the situation of the British vis-à-vis the EU
single market will, by definition, be worse than their previous situation.
Rogan: When
you think about the European Union, of many member states competing with their
own interests? Would you prefer to see a United States of Europe?
Araud: No. No,
it’s impossible. It’s impossible. We are all countries. We all have long
histories, we have strong identities. So there won’t be a United States of
Europe. Period.
Rogan: Would
you want a United States of Europe?
Araud: No. I
don’t. France is France.
Rogan: A fun
final question. Many Americans tourists travel to France. But if you had to
pick one place, where should Americans visit?
Araud: My
mother lived in an area near Avignon [in southern France]. There is a region
called Luberon, and I think it is magnificent. You have Avignon which is really
great. But you have this whole region north of Aix-en-Provence and east of
Avignon.
Rogan:
Ambassador, thank you.
No comments:
Post a Comment