By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, September 03, 2016
Senator Rob Portman of Ohio is not exactly Mr.
Personality. He’s not a culture warrior or a populist firebrand. He’s a
soft-spoken wonky Baby Boomer interested in budgets, finance, and taxes. He
won’t be seen with Donald Trump but welcomed former boss George W. Bush to a
private fundraiser last month. Also, he enjoys a significant lead over
challenger Ted Strickland.
Democratic campaign committees have canceled Ohio ad buys
in a sign that they have lost faith in Strickland’s chances. Portman’s biggest
fear now is of an anti-Trump wave that brings down Republican incumbents across
the country. He’s worried less about his Democratic opponent than he is about
the Republican nominee.
It’s another oddity of the 2016 election. Mainstream
conservative down-ballot Republicans are doing surprisingly well in an
environment roiled by populism and nationalism. They certainly haven’t been
upended by anti-incumbent sentiment. It wasn’t a crusading ideology but local
dissatisfaction and redistricting that lost primaries for House Republicans Tim
Huelskamp, Renee Elmers, and Randy Forbes. The populist, anti-trade,
anti-immigration candidates taking on mainstream conservative incumbents have
all lost. Whatever is driving Republicans to support Trump has not helped his
imitators.
The most high-profile challenge to a member of the GOP
elite has come from Wisconsin businessman Paul Nehlen, who took on House
speaker Paul Ryan earlier this summer. The basis of Nehlen’s campaign was
opposition to Ryan’s stances on immigration and trade. Ryan happens to like
both.
Nehlen had the support of Ann Coulter, appeared on Laura
Ingraham’s radio show, and enjoyed favorable coverage from Breitbart, whose CEO later joined the Trump campaign as chairman.
“While Paul Nehlen has spoken out in favor of immigration control and has
advocated on behalf of the American victims of illegal alien crime,” Breitbart wrote in its typical
understated prose, “Paul Ryan has ignored these victims as he’s continued to
push his open borders agenda.” Trump himself thanked Nehlen for his “kind
words.”
A few days before the primary, Coulter announced that she
was off to Wisconsin to defeat Paul Ryan. Maybe she was being sarcastic. Ryan
demolished Nehlen by a margin of 70 points, 85 percent to 15 percent.
John McCain supports Trump despite being attacked by him
last year. But the Arizona senator’s tepid endorsement of the New York
billionaire wasn’t enough to forestall a primary challenge from state senator
Kelli Ward. Ward called for an “America First” national-security policy, blamed
McCain for creating ISIS, and said the 80-year-old former P.O.W. might die in
office. Pro-Trump hedge-fund billionaire Robert Mercer, who is also an investor
in Breitbart, gave $200,000 to a
super PAC aligned with Ward. The day before the primary, Breitbart ran a story with the headline, “Exclusive —
Breitbart/Gravis Arizona Poll Shows Razor Thin Margin Between John McCain,
Kelli Ward Heading into Election.” That was more than a little off. McCain
defeated Ward 52 percent to 39 percent.
After losing the presidential nomination, Marco Rubio,
another frequent target of the populists, reversed his pledge not to run for
reelection to the Senate. He cleared the field of mainstream conservative
challengers, leaving real-estate developer Carlos Beruff as his sole opponent.
Beruff, like Trump, ran as a wealthy outsider immune to
the corruption of the political system. He supported the Great Wall of Trump
and called for a temporary ban on travel from the Middle East with the
exception of Israel. The only things missing from his pitch were references to
“Little Marco” and bottles of water. A July article in Roll Call asked, “Is Carlos Beruff for Real?” He was not. Rubio
beat him by 72 percent to 19 percent.
It may be that Donald Trump, in case you haven’t noticed,
is one of a kind. Disentangling his appeal to Republican voters is a
complicated and perhaps impossible task. Is it his deviations from mainstream
conservatism that they like, or his accommodations to it? Is it the “outsider”
that appeals to them, or the fact that he, like the party’s previous nominee,
is a successful businessman? Did he simply benefit from fame and theatrical
talent in a crowded field of rookies and veterans without stories to tell?
I doubt we will ever know. Still, the relative success of
figures like Portman, Ryan, McCain, and Rubio suggests that mainstream
conservatism of the three-legged-stool variety — pro-business, hawkish on
national security, conservative on social issues — has not been destroyed by
the “nation-state populism” of Donald Trump and Breitbart. It exists in Congress, in state houses, in conservative
institutions and in donor networks. And it is plotting its comeback.
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