By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, October 24, 2015
Rumble in the Jungle this was not.
On one side: Paul Ryan, who said he’d run for speaker of
the House only if Republicans were unified, open to reforms, and respectful of
his family life. On the other: the House Freedom Caucus, which had influenced
John Boehner’s decision to retire and Kevin McCarthy’s withdrawal from
consideration. The Freedom Caucus had a reputation. Combative, aggrieved,
empowered.
And supportive of Ryan. Even the persnickety Justin Amash
of Michigan endorsed him. That adversarial relationship between “conservatives”
and “leadership” we had heard about for so long? It melted away. The encounter
between the Wisconsin congressman and his colleagues wasn’t a fight. It wasn’t
a negotiation. It was unification.
Now Ryan is on track to become, according to National Journal, “the most conservative
House speaker in recent history.” But Ryan is more than his voting record. The
speaker he reminds me of most is Newt Gingrich. Not personality-wise.
Leadership-wise.
Both men framed the argument for their party long before
ascending to the speaker’s chair. And if Ryan, like Gingrich, becomes speaker,
we’re not talking about a mere transfer of power. We’re talking about a
revolution.
The story begins in 2008. The GOP was approaching a nadir
— unpopular, exhausted, in the minority. What did Ryan do? He authored the
first version of his budget, the Roadmap for America’s Future. He called for
spending and tax cuts, changes to Social Security and Medicare.
He became the unofficial GOP spokesman for free markets
and fiscal restraint. No one ordered him to do this. He alone among House
Republicans took the initiative, much like his hero Jack Kemp had done in the
1970s.
You might disagree with Ryan’s ideas — Lord knows I have
my differences — but you can’t deny his courage to stand in the public arena,
his commitment to his program, his readiness to defend it.
The GOP moved toward Ryan. In 2010 he updated the Roadmap
and submitted it to the Congressional Budget Office for analysis. His
colleagues were curious about the plan, how to discuss it with their
constituents. Ryan taught them the details. His dissection of Obamacare as
Obama sat glaring before him made Ryan a viral video star.
Everyone on the left, from President Obama to the most
insignificant troll on the most obscure DailyKos
comment thread, went after him. Indeed, it was the Left that made Ryan the
figurehead of the GOP.
But the attack backfired. GOP gains in 2010 were
historic. The Mediscare tactic didn’t work. And when Republicans took control
of the House in 2011, Ryan turned the roadmap into a budget plan, the Path to
Prosperity. The House passed it. Republicans were on record. The GOP was the
party of spending restraint, tax cuts, entitlement reform.
There have been two elections since. The Republican House
majority is now larger than it was in 2010. The Republicans hold the Senate.
Remember the ad where a Ryan lookalike pushes grandma off a cliff? A big fail.
So gripping did Republicans find this vision that the
party’s 2012 presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, chose Ryan as his running mate
— an implicit endorsement of the Path to Prosperity. In the space of four
years, a relatively unknown congressman from Wisconsin had become the chief
ideologist and spokesman for the GOP.
Yes, they lost the election. But no one on the right
doubted the capacity of that ticket to lead, or the seriousness of Romney and
Ryan’s proposals. And the party didn’t abandon the Ryan plan, didn’t jettison
Ryan himself. On the contrary: The acclimation that greeted his decision to run
for speaker is evidence of the regard in which he continues to be held by
conservatives.
Ryan’s election as speaker would be the culmination of a
long journey not only for him but also for his party. This journey began when
he embraced the so-called third rail of American politics — reform of Social
Security and Medicare — and refashioned it into the GOP platform.
What have we learned along the way? Tackling entitlements
needn’t be political suicide. Republican’s needn’t dismiss the subject of
poverty. Compassion, civil society — these are categories that should influence
our thinking. Ideas, even controversial ones, are not hindrances in politics but
boosters. They propel you to the top.
We have learned that the Republican Party is in
demographic transition. John Boehner is 65. Paul Ryan is 45. Marco Rubio is 44
— but, he likes to say, he feels 45. Ted Cruz is 44, Cory Gardner is 41, Tom
Cotton is 38, Elise Stefanik 31. Liberals are terrified of what these young
conservatives might accomplish.
Liberals should be. We’re approaching the end of phase
one of the Ryan Revolution. Phase two? That’s where it gets interesting.
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