By David Harsanyi
Friday, October 09, 2015
No one in America is going to change their mind about
anything because Kevin McCarthy won’t be Speaker of the House.
If you listened to the political media, though, you might
have been under the impression that something had gone horribly wrong because
the House Majority Leader made the surprise decision to withdraw from the race
for speaker, leaving Republicans to scramble for a candidate. Yet this is the
kind of messiness we should expecting from our most democratic institution. The
House is where public sentiment first manifests. And public sentiment—on the
Right, and probably in most corners of American political life right now—isn’t
in the mood for coronations.
Nevertheless, nearly the entire political media treated a
healthy instance of intra-party debate as a failure of governance. Upsetting
the status quo (if it’s Republicans, at least) is treated as turmoil rather
than change.
Karen Tumulty actually wrote these words in The Washington Post:
Less than a year after a sweeping electoral triumph, Republicans are on the verge of ceasing to function as a national political party.
Chaos! A failure to partisan lockstep is tantamount to
anarchy. Majorities in the House and Senate are now useless. You know those 31
Republican governors and 31 GOP-controlled legislatures? Dead. Lincoln’s party
is over because it couldn’t agree on a speaker this week. We’ll see if Tumulty
is right, but every time they tell me the GOP is dead, conservatives end up on
the winning side of a wave election a few months later.
In the real world, this is all far less dramatic. There
are many reasons floating around about McCarthy’s change of heart, but here’s
how CNN put it:
A source close to McCarthy told CNN the decision to drop out came down to ‘numbers, pure and simple,’ adding that ‘he had the votes to win the conference vote, but there just wasn’t a path to 218′ — the number of votes needed to lock down the speakership on the House floor.
For whatever reason, he didn’t have the votes. Don’t
worry, Republicans can find 50 other politicians with the exact same skill set
to take his place. Yet, McCarthy told National
Review Online he doesn’t believe the House is “governable” anymore.
“Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom,” he added, offering us a peek into the
conceit of someone who believes everything will fall apart if he’s not in
leadership.
Fact is, Republicans have gained 69 House seats since Barack
Obama became president. That hardly sounds like rock bottom to me. Many of
those seats were won without any help from Republican leadership in Washington.
Some of the victims of conservative success have been Eric Cantor, John
Boehner, and now McCarthy. So perhaps the majority leader meant that so-called
institutionalists were hitting rock bottom.
It’s an emotional time for institutionalists, no doubt.
Peter King from New York claimed (and I’m skeptical) that some GOP
congresspeople were crying in the cloakroom (and if you do care about politics that much you definitely shouldn’t be a
politician). He went on to say that America was now a “banana republic.”
Why? Because a party embodies a range of ideas regarding
tactics and priorities? Does anyone believe the Democrats’ lockstep with the
executive branch (other than in rare instances of political expediency) is
healthier for the country? Is that sort of deference to partisanship and power
what the Founders envisioned for Congress? Or is “chaos” preferable to
political subservience?
No, Republicans are not united. But there are those who
argue—with little evidence—that Democrats are more ready to compromise, and
this sort of stubborn GOP infighting proves this thesis. So it’s worth
mentioning that unity does not necessarily tell us anything about a group’s is
inclination towards bipartisanship. Though it might tell us that there’s more
ideological harmony or discipline among Democrats these days.
Whether this fight will be politically detrimental for
quarreling Republicans is yet to be seen. (I’ve long argued that Boehner hasn’t
gotten the credit he deserves.) Maybe it’ll be an electoral disaster. But real
chaos, it surely isn’t.
One of things that makes D.C. stable is the broad
Right-Left consensus that is reached prior to an election. That’s not about to
change. Another way the House helps to
stop banana-republicanism is by acting as a counterforce to the activism of other
branches of government—or, what partisans like to call ‘obstruction’ when
they’re in power. That, too, is not going anywhere.
The politics won’t change much, either. As news and
rumors broke about majority leader dropping out, millions of people around the
country were undoubtedly saying, “Who the hell is Kevin McCarthy?”
Until a new president is elected, the dynamics of DC remain the dynamics because of structure, not
personalities. The Treasury Department says Congress has to raise the debt
ceiling by Nov. 5. Congress will agree to bump it again. Congress has to reach
a two-year budget deal before funding expires. Republicans will agree, because
they will not want to close down government. And conservatives will be mad.
Long-term implications, though, may be different. Certain
things can and should get done.
Sooner or later, though, after someone else takes over,
that new leadership will strive to maintain intraparty stability and demand
disciple. That’s its job. And a bunch of newcomers will show up and want to
change things, as they always do. In 1994, there was a Republican revolution in
the House. By 1998, there was another House rebellion, this one overthrowing
Newt Gingrich. That tension will never go away. It’s not a good thing for
professional partisans, but hardly a tragedy for the rest of us. Or, at least,
it’s a lot healthier for a republic than watching unprincipled politicians
uncritically take orders from their leadership.
The House most directly represents the American voter,
yet The Beltway sees pandemonium when the representatives of those voters no
longer want to be managed and “governed,” but also have a voice. This doesn’t
signify the end of the republic. And it doesn’t mean Republicans are on the
verge of ceasing to function as a national political party. Though, you’re free
to dream.
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