What If Nothing Changes?

By Charles C. W. Cooke

Friday, June 07, 2024

 

A week is an eternity in politics. But what if, by early June, we’ve already had all the weeks that we’re going to have?

 

All coverage of the impending 2024 presidential election presumes that something is going to change. If Trump is imprisoned, then A. If interest rates come down, then B. If persuadable voters start to pay attention, then C. But what if that’s all nonsense or wishful thinking? What if the cake is already baked? What if Trump is Trump is Trump, irrespective of the label “felon”; and Biden is Biden is Biden, irrespective of the attempts to revivify him; and the issues are the issues are the issues, having been absorbed by the public over the last three years and cemented into a stable view of the world? Elections are typically too complicated to reduce to a simple equation, but, in this case, it seems possible that the key variables are all already here, and we are just waiting for the voters to run the math in whatever order they see fit. Trump bad. Biden old. Inflation unpopular. Abortion popular. Border disaster. World on fire. On November 5, solve for X.

 

I am on the record believing that Joe Biden remains the favorite in this election. If pushed, I still think that a narrow win for the incumbent is the most likely outcome. But I will confess to wondering about my reasoning, given that nothing that happens in the real world seems to have any effect on the polling whatsoever. To varying degrees, Donald Trump has been leading Joe Biden in the poll averages since last September, and nothing seems to affect that fact — not a conviction, not an outburst, not a civil judgment, nothing. Likewise, Joe Biden is stuck ineluctably in neutral. He declaims, he forewarns, he makes promises, he puts on his folksy hat — and everyone shrugs. “Bidenomics” was a failure. His “rule of law” ploy did nought. Even his extraconstitutional defiance on the matter of student loans appears to have landed like a lead balloon. Seinfeld was described as a show about nothing. This election, thus far, is more like a show with one plotline. “How’s the election going?” one is asked. “Same old, same old.” And upward the eyes roll.

 

Having taken this hostage to fortune, I shall no doubt be treated to a world-historic surprise. Now that I’ve said this, Biden will collapse during a debate, or Trump will be caught developing a bioweapon, or an asteroid will strike Georgia with “RFK” emblazoned on its side. But, absent any of that, it really is starting to feel cooked. This is the perennial 50–50 contest, fought by two candidates nobody wants. One of them is a disgrace — that isn’t going to change. One of them is a zombie — there’s no ointment that can fix that. In the press, the stakes are deemed eschatological; in the bars and offices, the more common response is to yawn or to shake one’s head. In some years, Election Day seems exciting, inviting, pristine. This time, it’s more like that disquieting dentist appointment on the calendar — close enough to acknowledge but far enough away to disdain.

 

Familiarity breeds contempt, and boy is there enough contempt to sate demand. This is the third election in a row in which Donald Trump has been the Republican nominee, the second in which Joe Biden has been the Democratic nominee, and the fifth in four years in which Biden’s name has been on the signs. Thomas Jefferson wanted to change the Constitution every 20 years, and in that desire he was mistaken. But we might readily apply that rule to our politicians. At this stage in the proceedings, we tend to hear West Wing–esque talk about the importance of “defining” one’s opponent. With Biden and Trump, this is no option at all. To “define” them at this stage would be akin to “defining” the Grand Canyon. We know what it is, thank you very much.

 

So on we trudge, making slow progress, if any progress at all, listening passively to the familiar words and recognizable motifs that, in years past, marked the jangling arrival of a presidential election, and wondering why all the critics are making such a boisterous fuss over the affair, when, in a previous binge, in an earlier time, we’ve watched all these episodes before.