By Rich Lowry
Tuesday, June 25,
2024
Donald Trump may be a real estate guy, but his ethic
in the first presidential debate should be the familiar rule from the medical
profession: First, do no harm.
Trump was rejected by the voters and is getting a second
chance — not after turning over a new leaf, not after disappearing on an
image-boosting world tour, not after starting a new philanthropy. Trump has
simply remained himself, while Biden has made people yearn for the pre-Biden
years.
Trump’s goal should be to continue to feed the Trump
nostalgia that has been the defining feature of the early stages of the race.
Warren Harding once said, “I have no trouble with my
enemies. I can take care of my enemies in a fight. But my friends, my goddamned
friends, they’re the ones who keep me walking the floor at nights!”
By the same token, what should worry supporters of Biden
and Trump is what they each can do to themselves.
If Biden wanders off, is obviously confused, or
repeatedly lapses into mumbly incoherence, it could lose him whatever ground he
has made up in the race and perhaps much more.
If Trump, meanwhile, reminds voters of what they disliked
about him by November 2020, he risks kicking away the second look he is getting
from the American public.
Trump doesn’t need a knockout blow against Biden,
assuming one is even possible this early in a campaign involving the tectonic
plates of American politics that don’t easily budge based on any one event. A
victory by decision, or split decision, would suit his purposes just fine.
Trump is in the rare position of a challenger who doesn’t
need to take down the incumbent president. People are ready to fire Biden. The
question is whether they are readying to hire the other guy.
Trump doesn’t need to tell voters that Joe Biden is old
or that Hunter is a drug addict. He doesn’t need to insult or interrupt him. He
needs to keep himself under control because the most important message he can
send the public is about himself.
Trump’s persona is the biggest reason that he grabbed
Republican politics by the throat and hasn’t let go since 2015. It’s also the
reason he has been a precarious electoral bet — narrowly winning in 2016,
narrowly losing in 2020, and narrowly leading today.
The Covid briefings that Trump used as a free-floating
communications platform in 2020 hurt him, and his first debate performance in
2020 hurt him, too.
The Democrats hope that the public hasn’t truly absorbed
that Trump is on the cusp of the presidency again. Presumably, people have
gotten the memo by now. But they might not be focused on the japery and
provocations with which Trump routinely entertains and energizes his most
devoted followers at his rallies, and the Republican would be well-served by
leaving all the rally material off the debate stage.
Trump is not going to fade into the background, nor
should he. There’s a reason that voters think that he’s more tough, energetic,
and effective than Biden. Trump should be forceful in defense of himself and
aggressive in prosecuting the substantive case against Biden. But bombast,
anger, cross talk, and idle boastfulness will make the debate about Trump,
which is exactly what the Biden team wants.
A CBS/YouGov poll from a couple of weeks ago asked Biden
supporters why they were with him, and 54 percent said they opposed Trump and
only 27 percent because they liked Biden. The incumbent’s job approval is
atrocious, and he’s trailing badly on most of the issues. He can only win if
people who disapprove of his job performance — and think he’s too old for a
second term — vote for him anyway for fear of something worse.
So it’s in Biden’s interest to make the race about Trump,
and it’s Trump the showman’s natural instinct to also make the race about him.
For one night, at least, he should play against type.
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