National Review Online
Thursday,
February 15, 2024
There are
many ways to explain Democrats’ pickup of a New York congressional seat in the
special election triggered by George Santos’s ouster from office. The most
straightforward is that the district was carried by Joe Biden in 2020 and had
been held by Democrat Tom Suozzi for three terms before he gave it up to run
for governor, providing the opening for Santos in 2022. Republican candidate
Mazi Pilip was much less well known than Suozzi and had a short period of time
to campaign in a race where she was dramatically outspent. And, to add an
additional obstacle, with Republicans counting on strong election-day turnout
given their voters’ reluctance to engage in early voting, the New York
area was pummeled by a severe snowstorm.
Yet
Donald Trump was quick to chime in with an alternate explanation: Pilip was
simply not MAGA enough. Trump lashed out on Truth Social, calling Pilip a “very
foolish woman” who didn’t endorse him and tried to “straddle the fence.” He
added, “MAGA, WHICH IS MOST OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, STAYED HOME – AND IT
ALWAYS WILL, UNLESS IT IS TREATED WITH THE RESPECT THAT IT DESERVES. I STAYED
OUT OF THE RACE, ‘I WANT TO BE LOVED!’”
A
recent NBC poll that received a lot of attention from Republicans because it
was so disastrous for Biden also found that 52 percent of Americans had a negative view of Trump.
Many of those voters are located in parts of the country that Republicans will
need to retake the Senate and build their House majority. If Trump is going to
undermine every candidate who doesn’t show him sufficient “love” or who refuses
to endorse his stolen-election claims, Republicans will fail to reach their
goals for Congress — even if Trump himself manages to defeat a hobbled Biden.
We
saw this play out in 2022 when Republicans dramatically underperformed what was
supposed to be a major red wave because it was so easy to tie Republican
candidates to Trump and his unpopular election claims. The fact that GOP
primaries became contests of fealty to Trump also short-circuited the normal
process through which primary voters vet candidates. That’s how Republicans, in
some of the most competitive Senate races in the country, wound up with
nominees including Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz, who lost to weak Democratic
candidates.
Unlike
Trump, Democrats understand that there are races in which their candidates will
have to distance themselves from Biden. On the day before the election,
Suozzi conceded of Biden, “He’s old, and there’s no question
about it.” He also hedged when discussing supporting the president by leaving
open the possibility Biden could be replaced as nominee: “If he ends up being
the Democratic candidate, I’m likely to support him, yes. We’ve got to see what
happens.”
While
it is always a mistake to overinterpret special-election results, Trump’s
reaction should be concerning for Republicans hoping to win a governing
majority in Congress this November.
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