Early Signs That Russia Has Bitten Off More Than It Can Chew in Ukraine

By Jim Geraghty

Saturday, February 26, 2022

 

Russia invaded Ukraine from three sides on Wednesday night Eastern time, and as of now, early afternoon Saturday, the Russian army has yet to seize any Ukrainian cities.

 

This morning, a senior defense official at the Pentagon briefed reporters and declared,  “We continue to believe, based on what we have observed, that this resistance is greater than what the Russians expected and we have indications that the Russians are increasingly frustrated by their lack of momentum over the last 24 hours particularly in the north parts of Ukraine… As of this morning we have no indication still that the Russian military has taken control over any cities. As of this morning we still believe that Russia has yet to achieve air superiority. Ukrainian air defenses including aircraft do continue to be operable and continue to engage and deny access to Russian aircraft in places over the country.”

 

There is an intriguing but unverified claim from Ukrainian intelligence that Putin is furious, that he expected a quick surrender from Kiev, and that the invading Russian forces weren’t equipped for a long war — and that after ten days, the Russian forces will face serious problems with supply lines, fuel, equipment, ammunition, etc. Maybe this is just Ukrainian propaganda, meant to keep up morale for the next week or so. But there are some intriguing anecdotes of Ukrainians hitting Russian supply columns and videos of Russian tanks running out of fuel. (It turns out supply chain problems are just everywhere these days!)

 

Russia’s got 170,000 troops, tons of armor, artillery, warplanes, cruise missiles, the works… they may well eventually take Kyiv, particularly if they’re willing to destroy it to claim it. But right now, roughly 44 million Ukrainians hate their guts and want to kill them. The U.S. is sending more Javelin anti-tank missiles, the Germans are sending both Javelins and Stinger surface-to-air missiles.

 

Putin’s initial goal, the Russian reabsorption of Ukraine or the transformation of it into a lackey state of a renewed Russian empire, is now probably impossible. Any Russian-backed Ukrainian puppet government is likely to be vehemently rejected by the Ukrainian people. Russian forces will find it difficult to go out on patrol when every citizen’s got a rifle and every grandma on every street corner is handing them sunflower seeds, telling them they are going to be fertilizer soon.

 

Russia may take large chunks of Ukraine, but they will have an exceptionally difficult time keeping it. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of blood, sweat, tears and death still ahead between now and the resolution of this conflict.