Iran Tests Trump’s Appetite for Humiliation

By Noah Rothman

Tuesday, July 07, 2026

 

A little over a week ago, I wrote that Iran’s tests of Trump’s resolve to pretend that his memorandum of understanding is intact and in force will keep coming and worsen.

 

“The whole point of provocations like these in an environment in which neither war nor peace prevails is that they test and, therefore, redefine the parameters in which the enemy can act freely,” I wrote. “The next test — and there’s always another test — will attempt to expand those parameters further.”

 

Well, the tests have kept coming, and they’ve worsened.

 

Oil prices are on the rise again today after “Iran launched attacks on several vessels in the Strait of Hormuz,” CBS  News reported. At least three attacks on commercial vessels have been confirmed, one of which ignited an uncontrolled fire in the engine room of a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker that was “at risk of exploding.”

 

One U.S. official called the strikes on merchant ships a “gross violation” of the MOU. According to the Wall Street Journal, the attacks threaten “to complicate negotiations to end the U.S.-Iran war.” Rather, what the attacks demonstrate is that there will be no negotiated end to the war on the terms established in the MOU.

 

“There are five clauses in the memorandum of understanding, and there will be no negotiations or agreement without their implementation,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday. “The first of these is the issue of Lebanon and respect for its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

 

In other words, as long as Israel is engaged in defensive operations against Iran’s terrorist cat’s-paw Hezbollah, Tehran will not observe the terms of the MOU. And Araghchi can cite the document’s plain language, which does seek to constrain Israel even though Jerusalem is not a party to the agreement.

 

The Trump administration put itself in this terrible bind in a craven effort to calm the energy markets ahead of the midterm elections. But Iran has demonstrated that it will not give Trump the placid midterm election cycle he wants.

 

Even if the president eventually arrives at that inescapable conclusion, he can only mitigate the embarrassment to which he has subjected himself and the United States. There will be no erasing this stain on the nation’s legacy or undoing the precedent it has set.

 

The only questions before us now are how many insults to America’s dignity Trump will tolerate before he acts, and whether he will find his limit before Iran miscalculates its provocations in a deadly fashion.

 

Update: It looks like Iran might have finally overplayed its hand with Trump.

 

On Tuesday afternoon, the Trump administration rescinded the waivers it issued along with the execution of the MOU that allowed Iran to sell its oil and petroleum derivative products on the open market.

 

Perhaps the administration has recognized that, for all its provocations, Iran is unlikely to welcome the sudden withdrawal of the new legal regime that brought its formerly illicit energy exports into the sunlight. What’s more, the Trump administration is likely to put downward pressure on Iran’s export revenues by introducing the notion that the Islamic Republic is on a short leash. Beyond China, Iranian oil purchasers are likely to hedge their bets if they understand that the rug could be pulled out from under them at a moment’s notice.

 

To the administration’s further credit, it paired this substantive response to aggression with airstrikes on Iranian targets:

 

 

Unfortunately, the “cease-fire,” such as it is, persists. And the president has demonstrated a willingness to look past Iran’s provocations in exchange for the promise of progress at the negotiating table. For now, at least, Trump has reached the limits of his tolerance for Iranian aggression.