Did AIPAC Blow Themselves Up in New Jersey?

By Noah Rothman

Friday, February 06, 2026

 

It looked as if the former representative from New Jersey’s seventh congressional district, Tom Malinowski, was going to sail to victory in the Democratic primary race that took place last night in his new home district, New Jersey’s eleventh. It looked that way even as the votes began rolling in, leading a variety of ballot watchers to declare him the presumptive victor. But an unanticipated surge of Election Day votes for his most potent progressive challenger in the race, Analilia Mejia, upended the conventional wisdom. As of this writing, Mejia leads Malinowski by less than a single percentage point. It may be days or even weeks before the outstanding ballots in this razor-tight race are fully counted.

 

What explains the surprise result in this relatively upscale, suburban district that only leans toward Democratic candidates? After all, “this is a district,” Jewish Insider’s analysts observed, “filled with Wall Street bankers, venture capitalists, and other wealthy white-collar workers that was a reliably Republican area not long ago.” Well, theories abound.

 

Some contend that Malinowski’s performance is attributable to the bad odor about Democratic establishmentarian figures at a time when progressive dissatisfaction with the status quo is the most potent force in left-of-center politics. Others say it’s part of the breakdown of Democratic machine politics everywhere, New Jersey very much included. But there are others who contend that the success of Malinowski’s progressive opponent is attributable to the work of her opponents outside the Democratic firmament.

 

A far-left progressive endorsed by the “Squad,” Mejia has cast herself as hostile to Israel’s defensive military priorities. But rather than target her or boost their more stalwart allies, the largest Israel lobby in America, AIPAC, spent vast sums distributing ads designed to drive up Malinowski’s negatives. It wasn’t an entirely unsound strategy. AIPAC reportedly sought to punish the congressman for supporting the conditioning of aid to Israel, fearful that the former congressman would have significant influence over the direction of U.S. foreign policy if he were restored to the lower chamber. In the process, AIPAC’s critics allege, the pro-Israeli lobby inadvertently activated progressive voters who share Mejia’s hostility toward the Jewish state. In this telling, AIPAC is to blame for its own unenviable circumstance.

 

The wildest version of this theory (which only crossed my transom because mainstream political reporters seemed to see value in it) maintains that AIPAC wanted to boost Mejia because it operated under the assumption that Republicans are racist:

 

 

In the hours since the votes rolled in, the notion that AIPAC is responsible for its own woes has congealed into conventional wisdom. The generally unquestioned assumption is that, to the extent that American Zionists’ interests will be harmed by Mejia’s presence in Congress, the Zionists essentially did this to themselves. It’s a monocausal explanation for a complex set of circumstances that should be less compelling than it seems to be for many.

 

And yet AIPAC may not have undone itself entirely. “It’s hard to imagine Democrats, running in a very favorable political environment, losing the general election,” Jewish Insider’s analysts note in a closing aside. “But you couldn’t find a more problematic candidate than a socialist running in a capitalist-minded district.” Indeed. Even if 2026 ends up being a bad year for the GOP, there’s always a candidate or two that the winning party’s primary electorate sets up for a humiliating defeat. Forcing the general electorate in this D+5 district to endorse Elizabeth Warren’s agenda may still end up being a bridge too far.