Godspeed to DOGE

National Review Online

Monday, December 09, 2024

 

In the frenzy of activity since President-elect Trump won the election, perhaps no move has created more excitement and derision than the decision to tap Elon Musk and entrepreneur-turned-politician Vivek Ramaswamy to head up a newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) tasked with downsizing the federal government. Just a few weeks into existence, the ad hoc entity has inspired merchandise and even meme coins.

 

We understand its appeal. Conservatives have long had the fantasy of a ruthless business leader taking the reins of government, axing unproductive federal employees, and eliminating wasteful spending. Musk would seem to be the perfect candidate for such a position. A billionaire many times over, Musk made his record-shattering fortune by doing things people told him he couldn’t — launching rockets into space that can land back in the same spot, building a satellite internet system, and even creating an electric car that people actually want to buy. When he purchased Twitter and slashed most of its workforce, the tech press was filled with ominous warnings that it would imminently cease to function, but more than two years later, X is still a dominant social media platform.

 

To the extent that Musk, with the help of Ramaswamy and the rest of the team, can help identify reams of federal regulations worth undoing, well-compensated workers twiddling their thumbs, and billions of dollars squandered by federal agencies — count us in. But at the same time, it’s important to manage expectations.

 

DOGE is not an actual federal department with any sort of authority to enact sweeping changes. It will function as an advisory board that can make recommendations to Trump and Congress, but it will be up to others to enact and implement them. This is very different from what Musk is empowered to do as a private-sector executive.

 

As always, the power of the purse resides with Congress. Though Musk and Ramaswamy have argued that the executive has broad authority to initiate mass layoffs in the federal government and undo spending they claim was unauthorized by Congress, any such decisions will likely be subject to litigation.

 

Musk’s claim that they could find $2 trillion to cut in the $6.8 trillion annual budget is unrealistic given Trump’s other commitments. Of the budget, $2.5 trillion goes to Social Security and Medicare alone — two programs Trump has vowed not to cut. Add in the other health programs a larger Republican majority was unwilling to cut in his first term (Medicaid, the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, and Obamacare), as well as veteran’s benefits, and that takes about $3.5 trillion, or more than half the federal budget, off the table. Add in interest on the debt (about $900 billion), defense spending ($950 billion), and other spending that is in the mandatory category, and nearly 90 percent of the budget would be accounted for.

 

Boosters of DOGE would argue that Musk and team can find ways to make programs, and the Department of Defense, run more efficiently. While this is true, the reality is that reforms to mandatory programs would require going through the razor-thin Republican majority in the House and overcoming the filibuster in the Senate. Given Trump’s “peace through strength” rhetoric, his pledges to counter China, and his vows to create new weapons systems (such as an Iron Dome-style anti-missile shield for the entire United States), it’s unlikely he would want to preside over dramatic cuts to the defense budget rather than reallocating money saved on eliminating Pentagon waste to other more useful military purposes. Again, Trump has already vowed not to touch the two largest entitlements, and any real savings on the nation’s health care programs would not only involve Congress but would entail reforming the largest sector in the economy, a hornets’ nest of hospitals, doctors, insurers, drugmakers, and other intermediaries with competing interests.

 

Obviously, there is plenty of waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government, but that is not the primary reason why it is too big. It is too big because for decades Congress has gone well beyond its enumerated powers, taking on too many responsibilities that should have been left to states or individuals, and the courts have let them get away with it. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid cost over $3 trillion a year not primarily because of fraud, but because the programs each offer generous benefits to around 70 million people.

 

All of this said, those of us who are clear-eyed about the hurdles to truly tackling the federal budget shouldn’t succumb to cynicism. We wish Musk, Ramaswamy, and the rest of the DOGE team well in their crusade against excess government spending and regulation.