By Nick Catoggio
Monday, December 30, 2024
“Maybe a year-end wrap-up sort of thing?” my editor said
this morning, proposing a topic for the final column of the year.
A fine idea. But if you want to understand what happened
in politics this year, you can get by with two sentences from the Washington
Post: “[Joe] Biden and some of his aides still believe he should have
stayed in the race, despite the rocky debate performance and low poll numbers
that prompted Democrats to pressure him to drop out. Biden and these aides have
told people in recent days that he could have defeated [Donald] Trump,
according to people familiar with their comments, who spoke on the condition of
anonymity to describe private conversations.”
Biden could not have defeated Trump, probably not even if
the infamous debate between them hadn’t happened but certainly not after it
did. That the president persists in believing otherwise is pathetic. The story
of 2024, the year of the MAGA restoration, is that his embarrassing delusions
about his political viability ended up forcing his party into a corner from
which it couldn’t escape. Too much inflation, too much immigration, waaaaay too
much public anxiety about his health: Had he thrown in the towel on reelection
after the 2022 midterms, allowing a proper primary to take place, maybe (maybe)
the eventual nominee could have set down enough of Biden’s baggage to eke out a
victory.
Instead he limped on until nearly August, forcing
Democrats to resort to his underwhelming vice president as an emergency
substitute and affording her little time to introduce herself to the public.
(Much of which she
squandered, in fairness.) Knowing now that he and his aides undertook to
hide the extent of his infirmity since
the beginning of his term, his determination to run again seems that much
more outrageous. In hindsight, the Biden 2024 campaign feels less like a case
of extreme muleheadedness than an act of almost deliberate party sabotage.
The Post excerpt is remarkable for another reason,
though. As it circulated online this weekend, everyone but everyone appeared to
agree that Trump wouldn’t have merely defeated an unpopular, enfeebled Biden;
he would have smoked him. And Never Trumpers were no
exception.
Which is an extraordinary admission, no?
For eight years, people like me have argued that Trump is
unfit for the presidency in practically every way that a human can be. Choose
any newsletter in my archive at random from the past 18 months and you’ll find
some passage raving about coup attempts and insurrections and “retribution” and
felony indictments. There’s a lot of material to work with in
prosecuting the civic and moral case against him. And Never Trumpers have
prosecuted the hell out of it.
The jury’s verdict: 312 electoral votes and a clear
victory in the national popular vote.
Eight years of anti-Trump activism by disillusioned
Reaganite conservatives ended with him back in the White House and more
popular than he’s ever been. There are political failures, there are major
political failures, and then there are “the guy I’ve been calling a mortal
threat to the Constitution obviously would have crushed my preferred
alternative, Joe Biden” failures.
As a tactic of political persuasion, Never Trump failed
terribly. But on the merits, as a substantive critique of Donald Trump? Just
you wait.
Moralizing.
Earlier this month New York Times columnist Bret
Stephens declared himself “Done with Never Trump.” There’s much to fear and
abhor about the president-elect, he conceded, but “is it time to drop the heavy
moralizing and incessant doomsaying that typified so much of the Never Trump
movement—and that rendered it politically impotent and frequently obtuse? Yes,
please.”
That’s a fair cop. Never Trump is heavy on
moralizing, and how could it not be? Trump hasn’t just upended the conservative
agenda, he’s cultivated an anti-morality in the American right that’s turned scumminess
into a leadership credential. For Reaganites of a certain age, watching
traditional “values” voters grant moral carte blanche to a seedy authoritarian
is so baffling that it leaves one thinking there must be a conscientious
impulse still buried in them somewhere that might be roused if only the right
appeal can be made.
And so we Never Trumpers often end up behaving like the
child in The Emperor’s New Clothes. If only we say out loud that the
emperor is wearing nothing at all—and say it and say it and say it—the spell
will eventually be broken and the crowd will come to its senses. By all means,
run Liz Cheney out on the campaign trail with Kamala Harris and have her recite
the thousandth iteration of her civic indictment of Trumpism. Maybe the
thousandth time will be the charm.
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? Americans
love to moralize but hate being moralized to. You will quickly learn to despise
a child who’s prone to scolding you for not recognizing something that’s
evident to them and should be evident to you—and all the more so if you do
recognize it. Most Americans understand very well, after all, that Emperor
Trump is sleazy, oafish, and dangerous. But they concluded that there would
still be more upside to his presidency, warts and all, than to Harris’.
They know the emperor is naked. They watched the news on
January 6. They either like it that way, as Trump’s base does, or they don’t
care overly much, as swing voters ultimately did not. Never Trumpers reminding
them of it incessantly anyway—surely you’re not going to reelect the
coup-plotter—resembles the so-called definition of insanity, doing the same
thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Never Trump is also what we might call a “luxury
ideology.”
It shouldn’t be. America’s greatness derives from its
liberal traditions; if you value a society that’s prosperous and pluralistic,
protecting the constitutional order from postliberalism should be your utmost
priority. But it’s easy to say that when you make a good wage and face little
foreign competition and less easy when inflation and immigration are directly
threatening your ability to feed your family. Chiding voters for not letting
abstract civic principles determine their electoral preferences recalls Anatole
France’s famous
line about the law: Never Trump, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and
poor alike from caring more about the price of eggs than about the
Constitution.
Also, let’s face it: Never Trump is naive.
Or is it just me who’s naive? Either way, when Trump
jumped into the 2015 Republican primary, I laughed at the idea of an amoral
gossip-sheet goon with nothing to say about reducing government winning over a
party of evangelical Christians and “constitutionalists.” I thought
conservatism, in which Trump was sorely lacking, was the indispensable
component in populist conservatism. Trump thought populism was. I was naive.
I was naive again in 2024 when I assumed Americans would
find a way to talk themselves out of rolling the dice on a man who had engaged
in actual sedition against the duly elected government a few years
before. To believe in American exceptionalism is to believe that, however
daunting the price of eggs might be, the people of the United States are too
proud of their glorious civic heritage to betray it for a vengeful populist
lowlife after they’d seen what he was capable of on January 6.
I was naive. There are, I’m sure, voters who agonized
over supporting him before doing so reluctantly for kitchen-table reasons, but
it’s you who’s being naive if you think every new Trump voter was arm-twisted
by inflation or immigration into backing him. Many simply liked the demagoguery
he’s selling and liked the way he went about selling it. Reducing the election
to a false choice between expensive eggs and the Constitution is a form of cope
that lets believers in American exceptionalism avoid confronting the fact that
their country turned out not to be as exceptional as they thought.
And in case that makes me sound like I’m criticizing
Americans for disappointing Never Trumpers: If the golden high-top fits, wear it.
Irrelevant.
Moralizing, naive, a bit too elitist—there’s something to
all of that. But some criticisms of Never Trump are overstated or, well,
stupid.
Take, for instance, its supposed failure as a persuasive
tactic. By the end of the campaign, Kamala Harris had traded the cheerful
“vibes” of her rhetoric in July and August for dark warnings about looming
fascism if Trump were to be reelected. Her closing argument was delivered
symbolically at the same spot in front of the White House where he spoke on
January 6; she used the moment to warn about protecting democracy. She didn’t
just deputize Liz Cheney as a surrogate on the trail, she campaigned with her personally.
It was all quite Never-Trump-y by the end.
And despite everything—Biden’s baggage, the 11th-hour
start to her candidacy, her own dunderheaded handling of the press—Harris
nearly won. Trump finished with a hair less than 50 percent in the popular
vote, 1.5 points ahead of Harris; the last time America faced a period of high
inflation, the in-party’s candidate lost by
nearly 9. His margin in each of the three Rust Belt battlegrounds was less
than 2 points and he fell short of 50 percent in two of the three. His most
impressive gains relative to 2020 came in Democratic strongholds like New York
and New Jersey, where Harris didn’t campaign. In the swing states, where she
pressed her civic case against him, she was competitive.
Would Joe Biden’s vice president have done better by
focusing on policy and unconvincingly renouncing everything that he and she did
wrong on inflation and immigration? “Maybe” is the best I can do.
“Never Trump is unpersuasive” is overstated, but it’s not
stupid. “Never Trump is irrelevant” is stupid.
It’s not stupid because it’s wrong. Never Trump has been
irrelevant since at least February 2021, when Senate Republicans rolled over at
Trump’s impeachment trial upon discovering that their base was
anti-anti-sedition. There were glimmers of hope this past spring when Nikki
Haley began scoring 20 percent in Republican primaries that a meaningful Never
Trump vote might emerge for Democrats in November, but Trump once again
understood right-wingers better than conservative pundits did. He didn’t bother
courting Haley after she dropped out because he assumed her supporters would
fall in line in the end. They did.
This newsletter is a running chronicle of how little
classical liberalism matters to modern right-wing politics. Of course Never
Trump is irrelevant.
What’s stupid about the criticism is that it’s irrelevant
in its own right. Yes, Never Trump is irrelevant. So? What of it? What course
of action should we supposedly take to remedy this sad fact beyond doing what
we’re doing, advocating for a more liberal right? What should conservatives who
favored smaller government have done in the 1930s with Franklin Roosevelt
ascendant? Become New Dealers?
Accusations of “irrelevance” imply that Never Trumpers
should abandon a good cause like liberalism and take up a pernicious one like
populism because there’s more influence (and money) to be had in the latter.
And they hint, unmistakably, that the accuser himself would be willing to make
that trade assuming he hasn’t done so already. The most reptilian sellouts in
the GOP—J.D. Vance, Elise Stefanik, Mike Lee, 90 percent of congressional
Republicans—forfeited some or all of their liberal values for the sake of
“relevance.” If you’re urging a Never Trumper to be more like them when it’s
our contempt for their opportunism that helped make us Never Trumpers in the
first place, you’ve misunderstood us entirely.
It would be too much to say that Never Trumpers are proud
of their irrelevance, as a little more relevance on Election Day would have
been nice. But if irrelevance is the price of alienating ourselves from a
movement as repellent as postliberal populism, we’ll pay it.
Vindication.
I’ll leave you with this thought as the calendar turns:
Trumpers aren’t as relevant, and Never Trumpers aren’t as irrelevant, as either
would like to believe.
It’s in the nature of populism (well, of any political
movement, but populism especially) for its adherents to believe they speak for
The People. That’s doubly true for Trump’s movement, which purports to
represent Real America. If you want to know what the “silent majority”
supposedly thinks, the nearest guy in the red hat will happily educate you.
Oftentimes it’s nonsense, though. Trump fans will be
thrilled when he starts pardoning January 6 goons next month. Most Americans will not be.
Trump fans will exult when he orders the military to round up illegal
immigrants and put them in camps. Most Americans won’t.
Trump fans will celebrate if he moves to limit highly skilled immigration.
Guess how most Americans will
feel about that.
Trump himself astutely attributed his victory last month
to “groceries,”
not to the hobby horses of MAGA diehards. His fans should consider that the
next time they’re tempted to lecture about their immense relevance.
And they should consider this too: Never Trump will be
vindicated—again—soon enough.
It might take four years or it might take a few months
but sooner or later Trump will be Trump. He’s already doing it, in fact. His loathsome
Cabinet nominations and autocratic recess-appointment
scheme to install them without Senate consent are a warning that he’ll test
civic boundaries more aggressively this time than he did in his first term. Why
wouldn’t he? He’s term-limited, has a dubious “mandate” by dint of (barely)
winning the popular vote, and ran on “retribution” against his enemies. What’s
stopping him?
There will be a civic crisis, and probably several,
because Never Trump’s core critique is and always has been self-evidently true:
Trump is illiberal in outlook, predatory by temperament, and too narcissistic
to ever place liberal traditions above his own petty interests.
I can’t tell you what that crisis will look like any more
than I could have predicted the “Stop the Steal” saga that led to January 6 but
the crisis will come because, after all, character is destiny. Trump will defy
a Supreme Court ruling or he’ll use the military domestically in some grotesque
way or he’ll sic federal law enforcement on his critics or he’ll begin inducing
cronies and deputies to commit crimes for his benefit with the promise of
pardons if they do so.
He is who he is,
and so I regret to inform Bret Stephens that the “doomsaying” he so dislikes
will inevitably bear out. Never Trump can’t be completely irrelevant because
Never Trump is correct on the merits and we’ll all learn that lesson the hard
way soon, just like we learned it—and then forgot it—once before. Character
is destiny.
And on that note, happy new year to you and yours.