Friday, May 31, 2024

Yes, It Was Rigged

By Rich Lowry

Thursday, May 30, 2024

 

‘Rigged” is a favorite word of Donald Trump and his allies.

 

It describes how institutions and processes have been distorted by a progressive elite to tilt the playing field against Trump and his supporters.

 

For the former president, it’s an all-purpose charge lodged against anything he dislikes and is especially useful as applied to the 2020 election, since it can vaguely encompass everything from sharp practices by the other side to outright theft.

 

When Trump made his statement to reporters on Wednesday morning prior to the jury getting the Alvin Bragg case, he repeatedly used the word “rigged,” and, in this instance, he was absolutely right.

 

The charges were rigged, the prosecution’s presentation of the case was rigged, the judge’s management of the case was rigged, the gag order was rigged, and the instructions to the jury were rigged.

 

The whole thing was rigged from beginning to end, in the hopes of — to the extent this case and the guilty verdict will matter in November — rigging the presidential election.

 

If this had happened in an alderman race in Cook County, Ill., it’d be discomfiting enough, but it happened in what purports to be the greatest city in the world and involves the campaign to become the most powerful political leader in the free world.

 

The high stakes would, one hopes, compel the authorities to have the most exacting standard for their own conduct and put a premium on maintaining the perception and reality of fairness. The logic of rigging runs the opposite way, though — because it is considered so imperative to stop Donald Trump, any means of opposing him becomes acceptable, indeed necessary.

 

By any normal standard, Alvin Bragg failed in his duty as a prosecutor by flagrantly distorting the process to manufacture the 34 felonies he charged Trump with. Yet, by the prevailing standard on the left, he has faithfully fulfilled his duty by so effectively rigging the criminal-justice system against the man whom they hate and fear.

 

One possible reaction to Trump from his adversaries would have been to emphasize their commitment to rules and norms and to do everything they could to buttress them and make the case for them.

 

Instead, they threw out the rule book beginning in 2016 and have pursued Trump according to the ethic that the ends justify the means, and that consistency, reason, and fairness are for suckers.

 

To be sure, this approach has its temptations, especially for people who never particularly cared for process or rules to begin with. But their recklessness has further undermined faith in the system, while the alluring idea that there’s a shortcut to diminishing or defeating Trump has so far proved illusory.

 

Alvin Bragg and Judge Juan Merchan have set a new standard for rigging, and nothing good will come of it.

Leaning Into Lawfare

By Nick Catoggio

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

 

“Biden camp decides not to take the bait on Trump’s stormy trial,” Politico declared in a story published in mid-April about the president’s decision to “stay the hell out of the way” of his opponent’s criminal proceeding in Lower Manhattan.

 

“The president believes in the norms,” one White House official told the paper at the time. “It only takes one utterance from Joe Biden for the weaponization of government bullsh-t to become more of a reality.”

 

Six weeks later, it would appear that the president no longer believes in “the norms.”

 

Here was the scene on Tuesday outside the courthouse where Donald Trump is being tried, highlighted on Team Biden’s own social media account:



Michael Tyler, the campaign’s communications director, split hairs a day later by stressing that the campaign hasn’t spoken about the substance of the trial, but that’s not true. Appearing at the same press conference as a Biden surrogate, Robert De Niro went as far as to say of Trump, “The fact is whether he’s acquitted, whether it’s hung jury, he is guilty—and we all know it.”

 

Even if it were true, the decision to hold a presser outside the courthouse is … curious. The Biden campaign won’t talk about the proceedings, but they will talk near the proceedings?

 

We might dismiss it as a lapse in judgment if not for the fact that it’s not the only “lapse” lately.

 

In the video he released two weeks ago challenging his opponent to debate, Biden snarked that he hears Trump is “free on Wednesdays,” a reference to the fact that the Manhattan trial hasn’t been in session on that day of the week. His campaign then turned around and monetized the jab by selling “Free on Wednesdays” T-shirts. With much of the country suspicious about the propriety of trying the case in an election year, the president treating it as an opportunity for political fundraising feels not so norms-y.

 

That’s not all. Plans are afoot for Biden to speak about the trial once a verdict is reached—and he intends to do so at the White House itself, not at a campaign event. His aides believe choosing that location will “show that his statement isn’t political,” but I think it’s likely to do the opposite. Using the presidential mansion as a backdrop for Biden’s statement will lend it an air of authority that it doesn’t necessarily deserve. Why would the president, in his official capacity, weigh in on a jury verdict in New York state court in the first place?

 

Assuming Trump is convicted, “Biden’s team will then argue that the result shows Trump is ill-suited for office and that it demonstrates the extremes to which the former president would go to win again,” per Politico. There’s even chatter about referring to him as “Convicted Felon Donald Trump” in online postings going forward.

 

It was, is, and hopefully always will be norms-y in the abstract for a political candidate to highlight his opponent’s criminal record. We shouldn’t want convicts serving in positions of public trust. But this particular criminal trial has always stunk of politics, from the fact that it was held nearly a decade after the events that inspired it to the questionable legal theory on which it’s based to the dubious motives of the lead prosecutor.

 

Trump has spent more than a year screeching that the criminal indictments against him are a form of “lawfare” by Democrats keen to hobble his presidential campaign. Their nascent efforts to weaponize the Manhattan trial suggest Team Biden has begun to lean into the accusation.

 

Why is this bad? Let us count the ways.

 

***

 

For starters, it makes the president and his campaign look desperate. And no wonder: They are desperate.

 

Biden has trailed Trump for months in national and battleground polling. A conviction in this trial is one of two developments before Election Day that might plausibly disrupt that trend. (The other is the presidential debates.) But as we saw yesterday, Biden’s campaign is having a devil of a time turning the race into a referendum on his opponent’s fitness for office rather than his own. They’re running out of time and ideas so they’re preparing to promote the heck out of a guilty verdict, should one arrive.

 

“Norms” are a fine thing when you’re ahead by 5 points and on a glide path to election, it seems. But when you’re 3 points down in the swing states and flirting with a sub-40 job approval, they’re negotiable.

 

In that sense, the president’s electoral trajectory resembles that of his old boss. Like Barack Obama, Biden won his first term by selling an idealistic alternative to a Republican administration whom many voters believed was morally compromised. And like Barack Obama, he’s hoping to win a second term by running a cutthroat “just win, baby” campaign against his opponent.

 

Not so norms-y. In hindsight, one might reasonably suspect that the civic idealism of his first campaign was a matter of strategy, not belief.

 

Another reason leaning into lawfare is a bad idea is that it seems unlikely to do Biden much good and might plausibly do him real harm.

 

According to a Quinnipiac poll published last week, 70 percent of Americans are already following news of Trump’s trial “very closely” or “somewhat closely.” That number will skyrocket when there’s a verdict; it’ll be on the front page of every newspaper in the country, the top story on every cable news outlet, and the topic du jour on every social media platform. If he’s convicted, the question of his fitness for office will be front and center in the campaign without Team Biden needing to lift a finger.

 

So what will be achieved by having the president himself address the matter publicly, except to seemingly confirm Trump’s suspicions that the trial was all about giving Democrats a talking point in the campaign?

 

Nothing Biden says is likely to make swing voters more inclined to hold a guilty verdict against Trump. In Quinnipiac’s survey, just 6 percent of those who currently prefer the Republican for president said they’d be “less likely” to support him if he’s convicted. And “less likely” doesn’t tell us much: If you’re 100 percent certain to vote for Trump if he’s acquitted and 99 percent certain to do so if he isn’t, you’re technically “less likely” to support him even though your vote is in the bag.

 

As with so many of Trump’s moral failings, the outcome of the trial simply might not hurt him:



But it could hurt Biden. The spectacle of the president trying to capitalize politically on a conviction might convince some persuadable voters that Trump was right to view the trial as dirty pool manufactured by Democrats. If that were to happen, it’d be a triple whammy for the left. Voters might be more inclined to dismiss the verdict as illegitimate; they might feel a modicum of sympathy for Trump, God help us; and they might view the gap between him and Biden in terms of their respect for “norms” as less meaningful than it is.

 

The guy who attempted a coup the last time he was in office and has spent much of his time ever since pondering how to make the next coup plot more successful should be an easy answer to the question, “Who’s more likely to make America into a banana republic?” The more eagerly Biden embraces political lawfare, the easier it’ll be for voters who are motivated to do so to call the issue a wash.

 

***

 

Because of that, the president’s campaign will probably get stuck trying to lean into lawfare a little but somehow not too much, thereby doing just enough to give his critics ammunition without doing enough to win anyone over. Tuesday’s event outside the courthouse was a nice example: Having Robert De Niro and some of the January 6 cops speak on Biden’s behalf in lieu of prominent politicians was obviously the campaign’s attempt to politicize the trial a little without politicizing it too much.

 

And like every other dopey “half-pregnant” Biden gesture, it’ll alienate more people than it attracts. You can be the norms candidate or you can take off the gloves; you can’t do both.

 

Here’s another question. What if leaning into lawfare ends up working for Biden?

 

Imagine he went scorched-earth over the trial, ran hard against “convicted felon Donald Trump,” and won a squeaker in the Rust Belt states to secure a second term. How well would Trump voters handle that outcome?

 

“As well as they handled the outcome in 2020!” you might say. “If Trump loses, they’ll call the election unfair no matter what.”

 

Right. But it matters how plausible that accusation is, no?

 

One of my editors reminded me today how Bernie Sanders supporters would respond to questions about his electability during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. Republicans are going to call our nominee a socialist anyway, they’d say, so why not nominate an actual socialist? But the answer to that was simple: “If Republicans are going to call our nominee a socialist, it’s important that we don’t prove them right.”

 

The same could be said of Republicans’ “lawfare” accusations against Democrats. Trump will scream about “lawfare” whether or not Joe Biden mentions his trial so why shouldn’t Biden mention it? Why indulge the complaints of a political movement that operates remorselessly in bad faith, on the one hand fretting about the civic damage Trump’s prosecutions have caused while on the other mobilizing to reelect a coup-plotter who wants “absolute immunity” for his conduct in his office?

 

The answer is the same as it was for Sanders. Most Americans know Trump is a cretin: No less than 75 percent told Quinnipiac they believe he did something that was at least unethical in the Stormy Daniels matter. But when they see his electoral opponent, the most powerful man in the world, rhetorically spiking the football after a conviction in Manhattan, the benefit of the doubt they’ve given to law enforcement’s good faith in prosecuting said cretin will weaken.

 

If Republicans are going to call the criminal charges against Trump a political ploy, it’s important that we don’t prove them right. Faith in the leadership of this country, especially among the youngest adults, is low enough as it is. A second Biden term will be even more dismal than expected if a huge share of the population—not just MAGA—believes that he owes his victory to effective exploitation of Trump’s election-year criminal conviction. Especially if that conviction doesn’t stick.

 

Our friend David French recently envisioned a political nightmare in which Trump is convicted in Manhattan, Biden wins narrowly in November, and then the conviction is reversed on appeal afterward. The degree to which that turn of events would shake the faith of Trump voters in the fairness of the system is hard to overstate, but one thing that could plausibly make it more destabilizing than it otherwise might be would be if Biden had placed the fact of that conviction at the heart of his victorious campaign.

 

The punchline is that he doesn’t need to do so in order to make the case that his opponent is a menace to the rule of the law. He has a coup plot, two impeachments, and a blockbuster civil verdict on a claim of sexual abuse to rely on instead. A conviction in the Manhattan trial adds little to the brief against Trump and presidential commentary on the subject will add even less.

 

Bad civically, bad strategically. So why do it?

 

***

 

There are two “good” arguments for leaning into lawfare. One is that Biden has no choice. Once he agreed to debate Trump, Biden assured that he would eventually have to say something about it. Trump will accuse him onstage next month of having masterminded the four criminal prosecutions he’s facing for political advantage. The president will need to respond.

 

But some responses are better than others. A good response would be if Biden could truthfully say, “I didn’t order those prosecutions. I haven’t made an issue of them. I haven’t even commented on them. You’re the one who keeps bringing them up!” A less good response would be, “Go to JoeBiden.com right now and purchase your very own ‘Free on Wednesdays’ T-shirt.”

 

The other “good” argument is that it’s endlessly aggravating to have to entertain the pretense that Donald Trump’s authoritarian movement cares about liberal norms and fair play.

 

We’ve considered the roots of that aggravation before. It’s not just the hypocrisy of a street fighter sucker-punching everyone in sight and then getting indignant when he’s socked in the face. It’s the fact that Trump’s depravity and the right’s boundless tolerance for it created the political dilemma of trying a presidential nominee in the first place. Instead of feeling contrite about that, they’re aggressively exploiting the justice system’s struggles to cope with the ethical problems presented by the situation to try to weaken faith in that system.

 

If Trump wins, important officers in federal law enforcement will be purged and replaced by fascist sycophants. When you frame the stakes that way, you can understand why Democrats are keen to use any political cudgel within reach to keep him out of power, including a conviction in Manhattan.

 

But that brings us to the same place we arrived at the last time I wrote about this. If the end of keeping postliberals out of power justifies the means of ditching liberal norms, then we’re arguing over which flavor of postliberalism we prefer long-term. If we fear and loathe Trump for setting fires for the justice system, as we should, we should not want Joe Biden adding any fuel by making political hay out of what happens there.

 

Some anti-Trumpers will read that and conclude that I don’t understand the stakes of the election. When democracy is on the line, our side should exploit every advantage it can instead of fighting with one hand behind its back. We can lose by following norms or win by shedding a few of them.

 

But that’s the New Right’s philosophy. The story populists tell themselves to justify war on the liberal order is that civic norms have made meaningful political progress impossible. To neutralize the extraordinary threat posed by their enemies, extraordinary measures need to be taken. “The norms” are for normal times. Those who know what time it is recognize that our era isn’t normal.

 

If that’s the attitude we’re going to take with Trump, we should make a list of which rules are and aren’t fair game to be broken in the interest of defeating populists. If, in the name of winning, Biden is willing to abet the MAGA effort to delegitimize the justice system by doing a little end-zone dancing over the Manhattan trial, what other norms should he and we be prepared to fudge?

 

Winning this year is crucial, but so is not normalizing populist political narratives. To do so would be to trade a short-term victory for classical liberalism for its long-term defeat.

The Horrendous Trump Verdict

National Review Online

Friday, May 31, 2024

 

Well, Alvin Bragg got his man.

 

In a case that will eventually be remembered as a textbook instance of selective prosecution, the Manhattan district attorney breathed life into an alleged bookkeeping misdemeanor that the statute of limitations had expired on and, Merlin-like, transformed it into 34 felonies.

 

In his press conference after the jury returned the guilty verdict Thursday afternoon, Bragg said his office did its work without “fear or favor,” an Orwellian portrayal of a prosecution that never would have been undertaken against anyone not named Donald Trump, or if Trump weren’t running for president again.

 

Bragg relied on an embarrassingly compliant Judge Juan Merchan, and a Manhattan jury that took its cues from Merchan, to make up for the myriad legal deficiencies in his case.

 

The business-records charge requires not just that a record is false (Trump’s reimbursement to Michael Cohen was booked as an ongoing legal fee rather than a loan reimbursement) but that there is an intent to defraud. There isn’t any evidence that Trump sought to defraud anyone with a bookkeeping entry that no one would even see.

 

To transmogrify the alleged bookkeeping offense into a felony, it had to be in furtherance of another crime, which Bragg declined to include in his indictment and wasn’t explicit about for most of the trial, although his prosecutors said it was federal campaign-finance law in their closing arguments. Still, since Merchan instructed the jurors to take a Chinese-menu approach to the second offense — they didn’t have to agree among themselves which of three possible criminal violations Trump committed — it’s impossible even now to know with certainty what Trump has been found guilty of.

 

The idea that it was a violation of federal campaign law is not credible. Paying porn stars for their silence is not a campaign expense. Moreover, Trump would have had to willfully violate the law, and there’s no evidence that he was even thinking of campaign-finance law.

 

All that said, Trump and his team did themselves no favors by denying the assignation with Stormy Daniels, when the evidence and common sense strongly suggest it happened, and by denying that he paid back Cohen, when Trump had previously acknowledged it in public. The prosecution successfully created the impression that this, on its own, was illegal conduct, and Trump’s dubious denials played into that impression.

 

The Trump legal team has plenty of grounds to appeal the case and may well ultimately succeed, although almost certainly not this year. The Democrats will make much of Trump’s new status as a convicted felon, and the case will continue to intrude on the campaign; Trump’s sentencing is set for a few days before the start of the Republican convention. It’s impossible to know with certainty how the verdict will play politically, but there is a strong chance that it will be a wash and soon enough overwhelmed by the larger issues in the campaign.

 

There’s no denying, though, that Alvin Bragg has made history — by becoming the first prosecutor in the history of the country to abuse his office in hopes of damaging an opposition presidential candidate ahead of a national election.

Tariffs Won’t Fix Our China Problems

By Kevin D. Williamson

Friday, May 31, 2024

 

In Hong Kong, the local factota operating in the interests of Beijing have convicted 14 democracy activists of subversion for the crime—and it is, under local law, a crime—of working to organize a slate of candidates for office who would work for liberty and democracy in Hong Kong. In a moment of perhaps unintentional candor, the junta pretending to be a court of law found that electing such candidates would provoke “a constitutional crisis for Hong Kong,” which is, of course, entirely true, though perhaps not in the way the authorities meant it. 

 

This is one of those periodic reminders that Washington cannot articulate a coherent China policy because Washington cannot figure out what kind of relationship the United States should have with the so-called People’s Republic of China. Answering that question is probably going to be the most important foreign policy issue of the next half-century or more. Unhappily, the two main competing currents of thought on U.S.-China relations are represented at the moment by Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which means that they are barely competing currents at all but instead are two very closely related variations on the theme of short-term parochial economic nationalism. Biden wants a 100 percent tariff on Chinese-made electric cars; Trump, in … contrast? …  prefers a 100-percent tariff on Chinese-made electric cars, other Chinese-made vehicles, and pretty much everything else made in China

 

Washington talks as though the United States were on the verge of war with China. Our top foreign policy thinkers have been describing China as a U.S. enemy—as the main U.S. enemy—for a quarter-century. Some 40 percent of Americans describe China as an “enemy.” Beijing, for its part, makes practically no effort to disguise its belligerent attitude toward the United States. And, yet, relations between the two countries are, at the formal level, utterly normal. The two countries enjoy ordinary diplomatic relations; there is a robust market for air travel between the countries, one that is returning to normal after a COVID-era disruption; and, most famously, the two nations are seemingly locked into a trade relationship that is politically thorny but apparently inescapable as an economic matter. 

 

About that trade relationship, some clarification often is needed. China is the third-largest single-country market for U.S. exports, behind (surprise!) Canada and Mexico, our rich neighbor to the north and our less-rich neighbor to the south, countries with which the United States has enjoyed a long and productive relationship of open trade. U.S. exports to China ($150 billion in 2022) are well less than half of U.S. exports to either Canada ($357 billion) or Mexico ($324 billion). U.S. exports to China also are well below those to the European Union ($350 billion). Total U.S. exports exceed $2 trillion a year. What that means is that our economic relationship with China is one of convenience and not, as would-be isolationists sometimes insist, one of dependency. 

 

Exports are politically easy. Imports are politically fraught, thanks in large part to the economic illiteracy of Americans who elect politicians promising to protect them from being victimized by abundance and low prices. For millennia, kings and emperors fielded armies and navies to keep trade routes open and to establish trade relationships that would enrich their kingdoms. That was then. Today, the world brings everything it has to offer to our shores and lays it down at Americans’ feet—and, somehow, this is a crisis

 

But, of course, it isn’t.

 

The problem with the U.S.-China trade relationship is not the economic aspect, whatever Biden or Trump wants you to believe. It may be a moral problem: Surely I am not the only American who would be willing to pay twice as much for a screwdriver if I could walk into Harbor Freight and buy one that wasn’t manufactured in a single-party police state by a Beijing-backed cartel that might very well employ slave labor. But, in spite of what our economic nationalists insist, it isn’t the cartelization and the slave labor that makes Chinese manufacturing competitive; in the long run, these woeful features of Chinese governance probably make local firms less competitive. (As you might expect, given the nature of the regime, China suffers from massive misallocation of capital and consequent economic problems.) In the case of the aforementioned tools and many other manufactured goods, you can find comparable products at comparable prices made by Chinese people working in a very free market in Taiwan. And you can find other alternatives of non-Chinese origin, if you look a bit.

 

Which is to say: The problem with the U.S.-China relationship isn’t that the scheming corporatists in Beijing are putting price pressure on tool manufacturers in Wisconsin. U.S. manufacturing has been kicking ass and taking names for a very long time, and output has been at or near record highs in recent years. U.S. manufacturing output today is five times what it was in the supposed golden days of the 1950s and 1960s. 

 

The problem with the U.S.-China relationship is, in effect, everything except the economic cooperation between the countries, which has—icky though the fact may make us feel sometimes—left both countries better off. The problem Washington should have with China is that China is a single-party police state with a nuclear arsenal and plans to dominate its region and ultimately to replace the United States at the apex of power. The question of whether the United States is better off with a richer China than it would have been with a poorer China is a legitimate one; my own view is that a poorer China would have been even more brutal than the China we have today and that, having less to lose, it would have been even more prone to disruptive behavior. Notice that the recent economic troubles in China have left the regime more aggressive rather than more accommodating. 

 

Our problem with China is not fundamentally an economic one. And so it isn’t a problem that is going to be fixed with tariffs. 

 

At the same time, the situation necessarily must be tense—and precarious—when the United States maintains a seemingly normal and fruitful economic relationship with China while our relationship with the country is strained and thoroughly abnormal at the highest level. The status quo is effectively that the United States and China intend to go on making money from one another while they wait—and prepare—to go to war with one another. That war would be catastrophic, but it is not an inevitability. 

 

How should the U.S. proceed, given the reality of our relationship with China? It is remarkable how little serious thought seems to have been given to the issue by the people in Washington who might make a difference. The Biden administration, for its part, is preoccupied with trying to gin up a few new electric-vehicle jobs at China’s expense in the hopes that the promise of more will pull the president over the line in November in a few old Rust Belt constituencies that have threatened to abandon Biden and his party for reasons that are, in general, more than understandable. As short-term and shallow thinking goes, that wins the gold medal.  

 

On the other hand, we already know what kind of man the Trump administration is going to listen to when it comes to China: Currently incarcerated nut cutlet Peter Navarro tops the list. Expect more tariff talk—more of the same.

 

But the emblem of our trouble with Beijing isn’t the “Made in China” label on all the flip-flops in Walmart. It is those 14 enemies of the state in Hong Kong. If there is somebody in Washington who understands that, he should try to introduce himself to Joe Biden or commit whatever kind of crime is necessary to catch the attention of Donald Trump these days. 

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Choosing Not to Choose

By Matthew J. Franck

Thursday, May 30, 2024

 

A vote for Biden or Trump would be contrary to an adult lifetime of conservatism. Why do that?

 

In the spring of 2012, I found myself alone for several minutes in a network green room with Ben Bradlee, the legendary editor of the Washington Post, who was at the helm of the paper during its glory days of the Pentagon Papers and Watergate.

 

It being an election year, our conversation turned to politics and Bradlee told me something that was utterly surprising coming from a veteran Washington editor: that he didn’t vote in elections. Why? He didn’t want to compromise his judgment as a journalist and editor by forming an attachment to candidates he’d voted for and would later have to publish stories about.

 

Though outwardly I nodded my head politely, I remember inwardly scoffing. “Come on,” I was thinking. “You’re famously liberal, and the paper you ran for years has been a reliable organ of the center-left in this country, with documented bias in its news pages, let alone its editorial voice.” But I didn’t say any of that, and shortly afterward others were in the room. Bradlee, who was already over 90 at the time, died a few years later. It was the only time our paths crossed.

 

I’m not sure Bradlee was honest about not voting, but I now think there is something true about his stated rationale. We do form attachments to the candidates we vote for—especially if they win and wield power. We feel instinctively that we should defend what they do, even—or especially—when defending them is hard. When the president, or the senator or governor, is “my guy” because I voted for him, I feel something of my own integrity at stake. I’m inclined to rise in his defense. He has enemies? Of course he does—he’s in politics. They will be my enemies too.

 

As I said, I don’t know whether Bradlee was putting me on. He had a close personal friendship with John F. Kennedy from the time JFK was a senator, and he even wrote a book about it a dozen years after the president’s death. Did he really not vote for him in 1960? Maybe Bradlee settled on his habit of nonvoting in later years. But if he did at any time give up voting, then it freed him, as a journalist, to report on liberals as well as conservatives when the story wouldn’t be flattering to them. Liberal he might be, but perhaps not personally invested in any particular politician’s success.

 

For at the end of the day, that is what voting is: a kind of investment. Not of our money, but of ourselves—our will, our intention, our passion, and our conscience. Of course, our investment can be a light matter to us, if we cast our vote in a throwaway mood, thinking “better this guy than the other guy.” Then we might cut our emotional losses when he disappoints us. “Live and learn.” Yet paradoxically, if it took a great effort to “screw your courage to the sticking place,” as Lady Macbeth put it—if, that is, you had to swallow hard to vote for a candidate, and he won—you may find your investment in him very heavy, and your felt need to defend him equally so.

 

Eight years ago, I published an essay for Public Discourse about why I could not vote for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. “Vote as if your ballot determines nothing whatsoever—except the shape of your own character,” the piece concluded. “Vote as if the public consequences of your action weigh nothing next to the private consequences. The country will go whither it will go, when all the votes are counted. What should matter the most to you is whither you will go, on and after this November’s election day.”

 

There is nothing in what I said then that I would now retract. I rejected the idea that I, as one individual, must treat my choice as confined to the binary of Clinton versus Trump, as though the weight of the outcome were on me alone. It is frequently the case that we vote for one major-party presidential candidate principally because we are against the other one—usually because we find “our guy” a less than optimal choice but “the other guy” strongly repellent. But when we conclude that both of them are wholly unfit for office, our habitual partisan commitments, and our fond hope that the one representing “our side” will be normal, or guided by normal people, do not compel us to cast a vote in that direction. What we must consider, I argued, is not our role in the outcome of the election (which is negligible, and unknown to us when voting), but the effect on our conscience and character of joining our will to a bad cause.

 

The last eight years have made me more certain I was right. In 2020, although the Trump administration had done some things I could applaud (Supreme Court appointments topping the list), I still found Trump himself wholly unqualified for an office he had never learned to respect or master. This was even before the insurrection of January 6, 2021, which, I have argued, constitutionally disqualified him. And Joe Biden? Please. He became my senator shortly before I entered high school, and I had long watched his career with consternation and loathing. I didn’t want to have to defend, even to myself, having cast a vote for either man, and once again I threw away my presidential vote on a hopeless write-in.

 

And here we are in 2024, with the same choice again. Only this time the overwhelming majority of voters have already voted at least once—successfully!—for these feckless men. That means the emotional investment of many voters in both Trump and Biden is very high, since each has a term as president to be defended—which ain’t easy to do in either case. Trump’s signature qualities were incompetence and recklessness, constrained to positive effect only by Congress, the courts, and many of his own appointees. Then he did his utmost, up until the evening of January 6, to steal the election from Joe Biden. A second term for Trump would be a four-year master class in indecency and mendacity, strongly inflected by an urge to authoritarianism that may sorely test our civic institutions. 

 

Biden, as all can see, is showing many of the weaknesses of his advanced years (though here, Trump appears in better shape only by comparison). Never a strongly principled man even in his prime, Biden has long enjoyed an undeserved reputation as a “moderate” Democrat because he is a trimmer. Now his sails are trimmed to capture the wind that blows from his party’s hard left. As populism is the GOP’s most energetic element, progressivism is the Democrats’. Thus the worst excesses of the Elizabeth Warren faction in economics and of the intersectional “rainbow” factions in cultural issues are fully on display in the Biden administration’s governing agenda. A second Biden term would feature more of the same, unless the president’s freedom from electoral concerns enables him to move to the center. I see little hope of that.

 

Yet, barring some unforeseen event in the lives of these candidates, one of them is going to win in November and be inaugurated next January. 

 

Is the responsible course of action to grit one’s teeth and choose one of them? Not necessarily. In the Washington Post, conservative columnists Ramesh Ponnuru and George Will have both made the case that a Bartleby approach (“I would prefer not to”) is a perfectly responsible choice. As Ponnuru writes, a candidate should meet “your threshold of acceptability” in order to earn your vote. And Will asks us to “imagine a dramatic upsurge in nonvoting that was explainable as a principled protest.” In an election year that features Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as off-brand fringe choices, writing in a name, skipping the presidential line on the ballot, or just staying home looks pretty good.

 

A vote for Biden would be contrary to an adult lifetime of conservatism. But I could write that sentence again almost verbatim, only substituting “Trump” for “Biden.” For a conservative like me, who has refused twice to vote for Trump, it is not that hard to refuse a third time. (What’s disappointing is the number of people I know who will vote for him a third time, despite everything.) Will voters who similarly sit on their hands, raising them for neither, determine the outcome? Possibly, in some sense—but that is not how matters will be seen when the dust clears in November. The winning candidate will claim, as winners do, a “mandate” no matter what.

 

What we “double haters” (in Ponnuru’s phrase) can at least say is that whatever happens after this election, we are not responsible for it, for only a cast ballot can impute responsibility. The year 2025, we can presumptively say now, will begin with the inauguration of a truly terrible president, and it will be a rocky four years from then on. Whichever man is in the Oval Office, I will be able to say, with grim satisfaction, that I have nothing invested in him and my conscience is clear. I am certain I have friends who will have voted for Trump, others for Biden. The hardest thing to do, I expect, will be to refrain from saying “I told you so” over and over. And like the late Mr. Bradlee, I’ll be able to criticize without casting doubt retrospectively on my judgment.

Jamie Raskin’s Absurd Theory of Forced Judicial Recusal

By Charles C. W. Cooke

Thursday, May 30, 2024

 

They say that you can’t build a strong argument on weak foundations. You can certainly build a weak argument on weak foundations, though, and here to exploit that loophole in the aphoristic canon comes one Jamie Raskin, a Democratic representative from Maryland who began his career in Congress by engaging in a failed attempt to challenge Donald Trump’s victory in the election of 2016, and who is now trying to save the republic by toying with the makeup of the Supreme Court.

 

Duly impressed by the concrete-pouring efforts of his fellow progressive Democrats, Raskin has taken to the pages of today’s New York Times to build the practical case for forcing Justices Thomas and Alito to recuse themselves from any Supreme Court cases that relate to January 6. Hitherto, Americans have had to rely upon devastating emotional arguments in advance of this proposition — arguments such as “Alito’s wife sometimes flies flags” and “Thomas is too close to his spouse”— and Raskin has sensed that if he and his team of provocateurs are going to prevail, they’ll need something sturdier than that. The result is a 2,000-word brief in favor of giving Merrick Garland control of Article III whenever the Democratic Party considers it imperative.

 

“Everyone,” Raskin writes, “assumes that nothing can be done about the recusal situation.” But this, he says, is “wrong.” In fact, there exists a way “to force Associate Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas to recuse themselves from the Jan. 6 cases that are before the court” — and, indeed, to force any other justice to recuse from any other case in which one might think that one has identified a conflict. The mechanism, per Raskin is:

 

The U.S. Department of Justice — including the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, an appointed U.S. special counsel and the solicitor general, all of whom were involved in different ways in the criminal prosecutions underlying these cases and are opposing Mr. Trump’s constitutional and statutory claims — can petition the other seven justices to require Justices Alito and Thomas to recuse themselves not as a matter of grace but as a matter of law.

 

As for that law:

 

The Justice Department and Attorney General Merrick Garland can invoke two powerful textual authorities for this motion: the Constitution of the United States, specifically the due process clause, and the federal statute mandating judicial disqualification for questionable impartiality, 28 U.S.C. Section 455. The Constitution has come into play in several recent Supreme Court decisions striking down rulings by stubborn judges in lower courts whose political impartiality has been reasonably questioned but who threw caution to the wind to hear a case anyway. This statute requires potentially biased judges throughout the federal system to recuse themselves at the start of the process to avoid judicial unfairness and embarrassing controversies and reversals.

 

“Many people,” Raskin admits, do not think that this law applies to the Supreme Court. But “all of them are wrong.” Rather, “the constitutional and statutory standards apply to Supreme Court justices” because the law contains the word “justices”:

 

The Constitution, and the federal laws under it, is the “supreme law of the land,” and the recusal statute explicitly treats Supreme Court justices like other judges: “Any justice, judge or magistrate judge of the United States shall disqualify himself in any proceeding in which his impartiality might reasonably be questioned.” The only justices in the federal judiciary are the ones on the Supreme Court.

 

Ergo, Justices Alito and Thomas — and, hell, anyone else who stands in the way — can be made to recuse themselves every time the New York Times throws a fit.

 

Or . . . perhaps not. Raskin is, of course, correct when he observes that “the only justices in the federal judiciary are the ones on the Supreme Court,” and he is also correct to note that the Supreme Court has voluntarily adopted the terms of 28 U.S.C. Section 455 as its own guide. But it does not follow from this that the Court can be forced to adopt those terms, or that it was obliged to adopt those terms, or, heaven forfend, that the Justice Department or the attorney general have some phantom power to remove whichever subgroup of Supreme Court justices they find inconvenient to a given case. Nor does it follow that other members of the Court have any interest in his proposal. Throughout, Raskin merrily assumes that, if his novel theory gains favor within the Democratic Party, the justices of the Court, acting as a body, will happily start compelling their colleagues to recuse from cases if ordered to do so by the AG. But there is no precedent for their doing so, and there are centuries of precedent to the contrary. Historically, individual justices have always made their own recusal decisions, and, historically, their colleagues have accepted them. Does Raskin expect us to believe that they’ve all been wrong, too?

 

“This recusal statute,” Raskin writes, “is Congress’s command, binding on the justices, just as the due process clause is.” But here he shows his skipped step. When evaluating any legal claim, the first inquiry is always whether the law applies to the subject at hand. Whatever they might say, California’s laws do not apply in Wyoming. However desirable they might be, the rules of the Senate do not apply to the House. Tempting though such a usurpation undoubtedly is, the president’s pardon powers cannot be exercised by Congress. In his essay, Raskin refers to “Congress’s command” and “the due process clause” as if they were the same thing. But they are not — and, in the realm of separation of powers, that can matter enormously. There is no doubt that “the due process clause” applies to the Supreme Court, because the due-process clause sits within the same supreme law that created the Supreme Court (although the suggestion that the due-process clause magically hands the responsibility for recusal over to the other branches is bizarre). But congressional legislation that is “triggered” by appointed members of the executive branch? That’s another kettle of fish.

 

In an attempt to get around this distinction, Raskin writes that Congress’s recusal statute has been applied many times to judges “in lower courts.” That is true. What Raskin fails to acknowledge, however, is that, unlike the Supreme Court, those “lower courts” were created by — and can be altered or abolished by — that very same Congress. To complete this conflation, Raskin then refers to “judges throughout the federal system,” as if what is true of the lower courts must be true of the highest court in the land. It’s not. Having been created by Article III of the Constitution, rather than by Congress, the Supreme Court occupies a different place within our system. Naturally, Congress has some power over the Supreme Court — it must approve or reject new justices, it can impeach justices, it determines the Court’s overall size, etc. — but it cannot abolish the Court, and, as with the presidency, it cannot interfere with the Court’s core constitutional duties, either. That, as Raskin concedes, the recusal statute has been applied in the lower courts but not at the Supreme Court is not an oversight, but an indicator.

 

Astonishingly, Raskin tries to get around this obvious problem by reversing it. For the Supreme Court to ignore the recusal act, he writes,

 

would trespass on the constitutional separation of powers because the justices would essentially be saying that they have the power to override a congressional command.

 

This is backwards. It is precisely because of the separation of powers that Congress’s ability to pass laws that superintend the behavior of the Supreme Court is limited. Congress is, and ought to be, the most powerful branch within our system; the three are not, as Woodrow Wilson had it, “co-equal.” But if Raskin’s contrivance were to be adopted, Congress would not merely be the most powerful branch; it would be the only branch. Essentially, one could apply Raskin’s “trespass” rule to anything. Congress could pass a law restricting what sort of bills the president is allowed to veto; the president could appeal to Article II; and the Raskin Rule would oblige us to conclude that the president was “trespassing” on the separation of powers by “essentially saying he has the power to override a congressional command.” Congress could pass a law ordering the president to fire his secretary of defense; the president could note that the secretary was approved by the Senate; and the Raskin Rule would oblige us to conclude that the president was “trespassing” on the separation of powers by “essentially saying he has the power to override a congressional command.” As applied to Article III, this notion would eventually undermine the very principle of judicial review, for if the Supreme Court is not permitted to override Congress when Congress’s actions fall outside the permission structure of the Constitution, then the Supreme Court has been rendered useless. Indeed, taken literally, the Raskin Rule would permit Congress to respond to every Supreme Court decision limiting its authority by issuing a “congressional command” to the contrary and calling it a day. Typically, one is obliged to extrapolate out to the bottom of the slippery slope. Here, we start on our backs. Raskin’s case for recusal, you will recall, is that Justice Alito’s wife chose to fly two flags at their houses. If the attorney general is able to force recusal over that — and “force” is Raskin’s word, not mine — then the attorney general will have been made into the Supreme Court’s de facto head of personnel, and the Supreme Court will disappear.

 

Which is all to say that, for all its pomp and pretension, Raskin’s piece is a perfect counterpart to the abject fluff on which it is built. We are informed prior to the essay’s start that Raskin “taught constitutional law for more than 25 years.” If so, then one must conclude that he has chosen to sacrifice his credibility for his cause. From start to finish, this entire flap has been a preposterous, astro-turfed bullying campaign that, far from yielding an earnest “groundswell of appeals,” has been tailored, retailed, and absorbed solely by the Democratic Party and its avatars in the press. That its architects have moved from trying to stir up the rabble to trying to hand control of the Court over to the White House might look at first glance like an escalation, but, in reality, it is a resignation. The whole thing is dust — and they know it.

The New York Times’ Specious Crusade against Justice Alito

By Noah Rothman

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

 

Reporter Jodi Kantor’s beat, as described by the New York Times beneath her byline, has become both “the Supreme Court and the controversial flags outside Justice [Samuel] Alito’s homes.” She’s making the most of her assignment. The Times journalist followed up last week’s scoop, which alleged that Alito’s jurisprudence was tainted by the fact that he hung an innocuous Revolutionary War–era flag outside one of his homes, with another attack on the justice and his family. This time, Kantor sought to frame the Alitos as the aggressors in a neighborhood dispute that purportedly led Martha-Ann Alito to fly an inverted American flag. But Kantor relies on nonlinear storytelling to cast the Alitos’ neighbors as victims of the maniacal bullies around the way. Relating the sequence of events on which Kantor reports in chronological order conveys a different impression.

 

Kantor’s account might have begun at the beginning, in the baleful summer of 2020. Then, Emily Baden, an aspiring actress and restaurant server, moved with her then-boyfriend (now husband) to Alexandria, Va., to “provide company” for her retired mother. There, the two engaged in left-wing activism common in 2020 and unremarkable given Alexandria’s political culture. They participated in Black Lives Matter rallies. They placed Biden–Harris paraphernalia in their yards. No eyebrows were raised until the couple stuck a handmade sign in their yard, near a school bus stop, after Donald Trump lost his bid for reelection. The sign read “Bye Don” and “F*** Trump” on alternating sides.

 

Emily Baden’s mother, a former PBS executive, said she did not recall ever interacting with the Alitos save for the occasional “neighborly wave.” She feared the signs were “tacky,” but she did not object to her daughter’s conduct because her actions were taken, in her mind, with “good intent.” Around Christmastime, however, Martha-Ann Alito confronted Emily Baden, not to admonish her but to express her appreciation for Emily’s decision to take the offending sign down. But Emily had not taken the sign down — it had only blown down. Emily Baden told Kantor that she rejected Mrs. Alito’s gratitude. Instead, she promised to restore the graceless sign to its proper place (although Baden claims she does not remember if she acted on her pledge).

 

The January 6 riots intensified this conflict. Following the attack on the Capitol, the Baden couple replaced the original signs with some more explicit denunciations. “Trump Is a Fascist,” read one side of the new placard. “You Are Complicit,” the other charged. Emily Baden insists the allegation of complicity was not expressly directed at the Alitos. Rather, it was a blanket indictment of all the other Republicans who live and work in Alexandria. The Alitos could be forgiven for their misimpression, given their ongoing dispute over the Badens’ taste for off-color political sloganeering. Nevertheless, this time, Emily’s mother intervened and took the signs down, but only in fear of retribution from mobs of pro-Trump rioters.

 

On January 7, Mrs. Alito allegedly confronted the couple again. She is said to have pulled up in front of their house in her car while the Badens idled in theirs. She “lingered there, glaring, for a long moment.” If anything else came of this menacing stare-down, Kantor did not relate the details.

 

The inverted American flag flying over the Alitos’ Alexandria residence was photographed on January 17. Justice Samuel Alito maintains that the theatrical display was his wife’s idea, and the message was directed at the Badens. If that was the intention behind this exhibition, it misfired. The Badens insist they didn’t see it at the time. But that wasn’t the end of this affair.

 

“There was a part of me that’s like, let’s see what’s going on,” Emily Baden told Kantor ahead of her January 20 decision to drive past the Alitos’ residence. There, they found Martha-Ann Alito in her own yard, at which point she is described as having flown into a rage.

 

“Mrs. Alito ran toward their car and yelled something they did not understand,” Kantor’s report read. “The couple continued driving, they said, and as they passed the Alito home again to exit the cul-de-sac, Mrs. Alito appeared to spit toward the vehicle.” This hostile exchange, as characterized by the Badens, retraumatized the couple, who were “still shaken by the Capitol riot.” It “left them feeling uneasy and outmatched by the wife of someone so powerful.”

 

The simmering resentments between the two families came to a head on February 15. The Badens maintain that they were taking out the trash when the Alitos, “who seemed to be out for a stroll,” approached. Martha-Ann Alito reportedly confronted them and called them “fascists” while Justice Alito “remained silent.”

 

As the Alitos turned to remove themselves from the situation, Emily Baden “snapped.” Although she doesn’t remember the “precise words” she used, Kantor related the searing indictment Emily rattled off: “How dare you behave this way. You’ve been harassing us, over signs. You represent the highest court in the land. Shame on you.”

 

That is some high-flown, civically conscious language from someone who admits she also called Justice Alito’s wife a “c***” in the very same exchange. No one disputes that — neither Emily nor her neighbors who were within earshot of the squabble. The Badens were reportedly traumatized once more by the episode. They called the police on the Alitos, but the cops explained that no prosecutable infractions had been committed.

 

There were no further interactions between the Alitos and the Badens until late last year when Emily’s mother recalled her surprise at receiving one of the Alito family’s Christmas cards. But Kantor strongly implied that the seemingly amicable gesture was, in fact, an act of passive aggression. After all, as Emily Baden recalled, it included a “handwritten addition that read, ‘May you have PEACE.’”

 

This sequence of events conveys a far different impression than the erratic timeline in Kantor’s tale, which begins with the altercation on February 15 to establish in her readers’ minds an element of doubt about Justice Alito’s explanation for his wife’s behavior. As Kantor said of her own reporting, “that final incident, which Justice Alito said helped spur his wife to raise the upside-down flag, happened a month after the flag was up.” But when the timeline’s integrity is restored, we see that the February 15 altercation was the culmination of a variety of preceding incidents.

 

It seems more like Mrs. Alito was set off by a series of actions designed by their executor’s admission to be provocative. In a moment of pique, she allowed herself to display the American flag in a disrespectful manner — a misuse of the national banner that has, nevertheless, achieved a level of salience for protesters who seek to register their dissatisfaction with the political status quo. Kantor’s lurid tale does not undermine Justice Alito’s claim that his wife was inspired by their neighbors’ instigation to what could best be described as a lapse in judgment. Even if the Alitos and the Badens carried on their mutually dysfunctional relationship in unpleasant ways for weeks, any fair-minded reader must conclude that it was the Badens who went out of their way to antagonize their neighbors into an intemperate reaction.

 

Why does any of this merit the scrutiny of the New York Times? Because it is just another pincer in a disreputable campaign to impugn Samuel Alito’s jurisprudence. Kantor all but accuses Justice Alito of misleading the public with his original explanation for the hoisting of the inverted flag. She insinuates that he was so overcome with hostility for Joe Biden that he skipped his inauguration — an insinuation advanced by her failure to name the other justices who missed the mid-pandemic ceremony, including liberal justice Stephen Breyer. She deems the “Appeal to Heaven” flag commissioned by George Washington and adorned with language attributable to John Locke a “flag associated with the Jan. 6 riot as well as the Christian nationalist movement.” All this, Kantor maintains, led “ethics experts” and Democrats to impose “sharp scrutiny” on Alito — “scrutiny” conspicuously timed to coincide with the Supreme Court’s deliberations on cases “expected to influence” the 2024 election. Imagine that!

 

From the outset, Kantor concedes that her story is an otherwise unremarkable “neighborhood spat” that “has taken on far greater proportions.” The passive voice here should have been stricken from the text. These stories are not the result of the cosmic convergence of forces outside anyone’s control. They are a contrivance from beginning to end — all and only to serve the sordid purpose of advancing the Left’s preferred political outcomes by burying Alito beneath a mountain of spurious allegations. Even if each individual accusation lacks merit upon further analysis, they have cumulative weight. Hence, the tempo of updates from the Times. The trend, its architects hope, speaks for itself.

We Have the Worst Political Leaders

By Jim Geraghty

Thursday, May 30, 2024

 

The vibe has shifted; you can tell that Democrats doubt the happy talk coming out of the Biden campaign and now fear Donald Trump is on a trajectory to win.

 

Politico: “Dems in full-blown ‘freakout’ over Biden”

 

NPR: “Biden’s problems with younger voters are glaring, poll finds”

 

The New Yorker: “Is the Biden Campaign Running on False Hope?”

 

NBC News: “How the Biden campaign is tackling its Black and Latino voter problem”

 

Ezra Klein, over at the New York Times: “Seven Theories for Why Biden Is Losing (and What He Should Do About It)”

 

headline over at Semafor summarized how young people feel about American politics: “A dying empire led by bad people.” I don’t share the first half of that perspective, but I get where they’re coming from on the second. If you are inclined to believe that the 2024 presidential campaign is a showcase of bad people, you have no shortage of supporting evidence.

 

Do I need to spend a lot of time laying out the character of Donald Trump? I think the trial up in New York is a bad idea, stretching the application of the law beyond any precedent or reasonable standard. If you ask the typical Democrat to list the 100 worst things Trump has ever said or done, few will mention that Trump falsified business records in attempting to hide the fact that he was paying off Stormy Daniels. The fact that the case relies so heavily on the testimony of Michael Cohen, a notoriously shameless liar, makes me think it’s a spectacularly weak case. But juries can surprise you.

 

Nonetheless, this is all about hiding Trump’s tryst with a porn star while Melania was raising four-month-old Barron. Trump is a boor, a creep, a pathological liar, a rage-aholic, a guy who watched television while an angry mob that he ginned up chanted “Hang Mike Pence.” His mind has all the stability of a Jenga Tower made of Jello in the back of a pickup truck with a blown suspension, driving over the San Andreas Fault.

 

But the country is in its current mess because the guy who everyone thought would serve one term has decided to run for a second term, when he’ll turn 82 after Election Day. The United States of America is not going to have an 86-year-old president. It just isn’t. As Dan Ackroyd used to say in his impression of Bob Dole, “You know it. I know it. And the American people know it.”

 

Mister President, you know what your life is like. You know that you can’t remember things as well as you used to, and we witness it almost every day. It’s one thing when you’re telling your usual malarkey tall tales of being a truck driver. When you say you were just talking to the late Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterrand, most of us know you meant Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron.

 

But your inability to remember things correctly becomes more cringe-inducing when you claim you were arrested trying to visit Nelson Mandela or protesting for civil rights. (Hey, remember when Brian Williams’s made-up stories had some actual consequences?) If the audio of your testimony to Robert Hur made you sound good, you wouldn’t be making a nonsense claim of executive privilege to keep it under wraps.

 

We’ve seen you wandering off on television sets and United Nations event stages and the White House lawn.

 

Your health, mental clarity, and memory aren’t going to get any better over the next four years. We live in a dangerous world, with Vladimir Putin on the march, Xi Jinping eyeing Taiwan, North Koreans handling nukes, and Iran developing nukes and sponsoring terrorism. Throw in ruthless drug cartels and gangs, A.I. and quantum computing, and hypersonic missiles — the next four years are not going to be smooth sailing. We need a president who is at the top of his game.

 

Joe Biden shouldn’t be running for reelection, but he is. He’s putting his own personal ambition and ego ahead of the best interests of the country.

 

Yesterday, Jill Biden appeared on The View and said that in the upcoming debate, “You’re gonna see how smart he [President Biden] is and the experience he has. And then you’ll see somebody who, like you’re saying — I’m going to use Joy [Behar]’s words — ‘can’t put a sentence together.’”

 

The First Lady knows we can see her husband, right?

 

If Jill Biden told her husband that she didn’t think he should run for another term, it is extremely likely that Joe Biden would not run for another term.

 

And then there’s Kamala Harris.

 

Madam vice president, it is now abundantly clear you’re not going to grow into the job. It’s been three and a half years. You have an approval rating of 38.4 percent.

 

Even The Daily Show, which usually uses kid gloves on Democrats, mocked Harris by interviewing the fictional character of “Dahlia Rose Hibiscus,” the vice president’s “Holistic Thought Advisor.” “I lead the vice president on not so much sentences as idea voyages. It’s a process I call, ‘speaking without thinking.’ It’s not about the destination of the thought, it’s about the journey, and how many words you use to describe the journey.”

 

We know that not even many Democrats have any faith in you; otherwise, they would be clamoring for you to be the nominee instead of Biden. Not everyone is meant to be president. You are not up to the job, and you’re the primary obstacle to the Democrats replacing the doddering geriatric. The honorable thing to do would be to find some other role to play in American life. But we know you would never make that choice.

 

We have so many people who have responsibilities to something much bigger than their own ambitions — the country. And they ignore those responsibilities because of their egos. The presidency is not just a prize to be won, but a serious, heavy responsibility — one that ages most of the occupants of the Oval Office.

Are They Trying to Lose?

By Noah Rothman

Thursday, May 30, 2024

 

On Thursday, CBS Mornings took a look at “one economic indicator that could hit home in the presidential election: the high cost of buying that first home and living the American dream.” Home ownership has become all but “unattainable” in some of America’s most hotly contested battleground states, “where would be buyers face housing shortages and high interest rates.”

 

In his dispatches from Phoenix, Ariz., CBS correspondent Ed O’Keefe took the lay of the land and found profound apprehension over the unmanageability of housing costs. “Affordability is certainly the issue here,” said local realtor Nathan Claiborn. What were once “starter homes” have become “move-up homes.” Inventories are persistently low in desirable parts of the country, where new construction is not keeping pace with demand. And the competition in the housing market that drives up prices in concert with the inducements in a higher-interest environment to contribute more to a down payment ensures that, as Claiborn observed, buying a home today is “mathematically out of reach for lots and lots of people.”

 

O’Keefe noted that each of the prospective homebuyers with whom he spoke said their vote in the upcoming presidential election was up for grabs. Those voters’ desire to see the political class address housing costs will be a “big factor” in determining their preference in November. Joe Biden seems attuned to these concerns. In March, the president devoted several days to retailing his plan to lower housing costs, most of which only exemplified the economic nescience that has plagued this administration from the start.

 

The housing market is burdened by low inventory and high demand. Biden would exacerbate the latter if he got his way, which would involve providing first-time home buyers with a $10,000 tax credit while also proposing another $10,000 to current homeowners who sell their “‘starter home’ in order to jump into a bigger house. Subsidizing already excessive demand is no way to cope with the problems of excessive demand.

 

But the president did not wholly ignore the shortage of homes on the market. He also pitched a program deemed the “Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit,” which would bake new tax credits into the tax code for builders to renovate or construct entry-level homes. These “proposals amount to more of a second-term vision than a readily implementable plan,” Politico confessed. Yet, they also signaled the White House’s recognition of the problem in the housing market. “The bottom line,” Biden told a conference of local officials, “is we have to build, build, build.”

 

March was a long time ago. In the interim, the administration has defaulted back to its reflexive deference to environmental activists, who seem to have convinced the administration that it’s in the nation’s interest to make building new homes as expensive a prospect as possible.

 

In the coming weeks, the administration is expected to promulgate a new federal mandate that will compel new homes to adhere to “the latest international standards for energy efficiency.” The regulatory proposal will force builders to incorporate “efficient” heating and cooling systems, lighting, and insulation into new construction. If implemented, the rule would have the effect of reducing the minuscule contributions to global heat-trapping emissions levels from single-family homes while also making those homes significantly more expensive to purchase and maintain.

 

“An analysis by the Department of Housing and Urban Development found the proposed policy would add $7,200 to the average price of a new home but would cut energy costs by nearly $1,000 a year,” Politico reported. That last figure is slightly misleading. Many so-called “efficient” appliances have lower monthly operating costs, but they often require more maintenance and are more expensive to purchase at the outset.

 

That’s the sort of thing new homebuyers consider carefully before putting in an offer. It’s not the sort of thing technocrats possessed of a utopian vision for the reorganization of society around their ideological preferences seem to care much about. If the prospective homebuyer vote matters at the margins of this presidential election, Biden’s efforts to make the market for new construction even more expensive is a foolish move.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Did Israel’s Knee-Jerk Critics Get It Wrong in Rafah?

By Noah Rothman

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

 

The impulsive reaction of Israel’s reflexive critics to an Israeli air strike inside Rafah over the weekend illustrates the folly in lending too much credence to the news that emerges from the imperfect information environment of the battlefield.

 

Over the weekend, local officials inside Hamas-controlled Gaza described a “horrifying” scene in which an Israeli strike on a refugee encampment near Rafah killed dozens of civilians. Israeli-government officials describe the incident as “tragic” and a “mistake” owing to the fog of war, though Jerusalem continues to investigate the event.

 

The strike was initially said to have targeted “displaced Palestinians at a tent camp in Rafah,” which may constitute a “violation of President Biden’s ‘red line,’” Axios journalist Barak Ravid reported. Still, the Biden administration reserved judgment. The White House’s failure to lunge for the least charitable explanation for Israel’s conduct was quickly deemed a betrayal of his own policy preferences.

 

“Will anything that Israel does cross that line? Or is this a line that is infinitely movable,” asked Human Rights Watch’s Kenneth Roth. Biden dithered, the Economist’s Gregg Carlstrom snarked, gathering “the best and brightest minds to debate whether or not this was an acceptable number of displaced children burned alive in their tent camp.” New York Times reporter Peter Baker relayed a conspiracy theory he hears peddled by “White House officials” who allege that the Israeli government’s recklessness was designed to “sabotage the president’s reelection campaign.”

 

In the intervening hours, however, a simplistic story centered on Israeli perfidy and malevolence became hopelessly complicated by the facts of the matter.

 

A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces maintains that the strike, in which at least 45 are believed to have been killed, involved the deployment of the “smallest munition our jets can use” and suggested that secondary explosions were responsible for the excessive collateral damage. The IDF subsequently produced audio of an intercepted phone conversation between two Gazans who substantiated the Israeli claim. “All of the ammunition started exploding,” one observed. When asked if the ammunition was “ours,” the speaker emphatically confirmed that it was. “Yes, this is an ammunition warehouse,” he continued. Both subjects concur that the “Jewish bombing wasn’t strong” and there were “a lot of secondary explosions.”

 

Israel’s critics are unlikely to take the IDF’s word or the evidence in support of it at face value. But that circumspection seems never to apply to the claims retailed by Gaza-based Palestinians. In the hours since that controversial Rafah strike, the IDF has maintained its tempo of operations in Rafah. On Tuesday, another 21 Gazans were killed and many more wounded in what local authorities claim was an Israeli artillery strike on a civilian tent encampment. But the IDF maintains that it executed no strikes anywhere near a humanitarian corridor where displaced Rafah residents are taking shelter — a detail even the Washington Post later confirmed. “Witnesses said the strikes occurred just south of the humanitarian zone,” it reported tersely.

 

No one in a position of authority disputes that the fire in the Rafah camp was anything other than a tragedy of the sort that is lamentably common in warfare. Israel’s critics routinely cast their own credibility in doubt, however, by racing to attribute Israel’s actions to the malice fueling its eliminationist campaign in the Gaza Strip. That tidy narrative rarely survives closer inspection, but its advocates seem never to reexamine their priors.