By Noah Rothman
Monday, February 20, 2023
When President Joe Biden finally deigned to fill the
American people in on why his administration had turned the skies above North
America into a live-fire zone over the course of two weeks in early February,
the backdrop against which he delivered his address was widespread confusion.
In lieu of new or relevant facts and seemingly aware that an inexplicable rain
of fiery debris descending across the continent can become a political
liability, however, the president approached the lectern armed only with
defensive bravado.
Biden began by informing the nation that his Pentagon had
responded to the incursion of a Chinese surveillance balloon, which U.S. forces
neutralized on February 4, with enhanced scrutiny of the skies over North
America. That survey was alarmingly productive, turning up at least three
unidentified objects that were shot out of the sky in as many days. This course
was taken “out of an abundance of caution,” Biden said, in part because the
objects were flying at altitudes shared by commercial air traffic but also
“because we could not rule out the surveillance risk of sensitive facilities.”
The president did, however, note that the unidentified objects remain
unidentified, and there was “nothing” to indicate that the vehicles were
related to foreign surveillance programs.
Much of what the president said contributed to the
impression that this adventure was a spectacular cock-up fueled by
apprehension: The administration had suddenly realized that American airspace
was penetrable by low-tech devices operated by aggressive armed forces abroad.
After all, the problems presented by unmanned aircraft flying at dangerous altitudes has vexed regulatory authorities for years, but it had
never previously necessitated a military response — much less three kinetic
events in quick succession. That perhaps explained why Biden assumed the
booming cadence he deploys to convey resolve, even if his resolve in this case
was to meet the threat posed by objects that were “most likely” associated with
“private companies, recreation, or research institutions studying weather or
conducting other scientific research.”
Biden confessed that the incidents over Alaska, the
Yukon, and Lake Huron were still being assessed by U.S. intelligence agencies,
and American and Canadian armed forces were “seeking to recover the debris so
we can learn more about these three objects.” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed that, until the objects are
recovered, “we can’t definitively say without analyzing the debris what these
objects were.” But within 48 hours of these remarks, the U.S. and Canada called off the search, the debris fields having turned up
nothing. To judge by the administration’s self-set criteria, we’ll never
definitively know what the objects that so menacingly compromised North
American airspace really were.
Biden went on to attempt to reassure Americans that the
unprecedented and anomalous conduct in which U.S. warplanes engaged was not
necessarily a sign of things to come. “We don’t have any evidence that there
has been a sudden increase in the number of objects in the sky,” the president
insisted. “We’re now just seeing more of them, partially because the steps
we’ve taken to increase our radars — to narrow our radars.”
That rings true. After U.S. forces broadened the aperture
of its radar surveys, they found that “if you look for unidentified aerial
phenomena, or UAPs, you will find them floating in US skies,” as CNN put it. After NORAD (the North American Aerospace
Defense Command) adjusted its algorithms and data filters, the low-tech
vehicles detected and occasional “radar anomaly” repeatedly forced it to scramble jets and temporarily close sensitive airspace. But
these suddenly ubiquitous phenomena disappeared just as abruptly. When Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin was asked about this aerial invasion on February 15, he
confessed that no additional objects had been detected “in the last
48 hours.” Either these vehicles suddenly skedaddled, or NORAD once again
narrowed its radar sweeps to avoid capturing benign objects and anomalous
signatures.
It’s safe to assume that the president meant all this to
be reassuring. “Make no mistake,” Biden declared, “if any object presents a
threat to the safety and security of the American people, I will take it down.”
That might be encouraging if he were not similarly intent on shooting down
entirely harmless commercial or research vessels. Moreover, it would be easy
enough to ponder this irresolvable ambiguity and chalk it up to error if the
administration wasn’t also retailing its hyper-competence and technological
supremacy.
According to “U.S. intelligence officials,” the
Pentagon monitored the Chinese spy balloon that traversed the
whole of the American continent from the moment it took off. Officials observed
the balloon as it drifted toward Guam until it allegedly veered off course,
making its way to Alaska on January 28 before finally being shot down off the
South Carolina coast a week later. To hear senior officials tell it, the
appearance of such craft in our skies has been a regular occurrence, which
explains their lethargy. As the Wall Street Journal reported,
the Pentagon retroactively determined that Chinese spy
vessels violated U.S. airspace during the Trump administration, “believing Beijing
was using them to test radar-jamming systems over sensitive U.S. military
sites.” But these “basic assessments” were somehow never kicked up the
administrative chain. Nevertheless, if the U.S. has such a firm handle on
Chinese surveillance craft, what explains the alarm over objects we did not
similarly track?
“Since I came into office,” Biden concluded, “we’ve
developed the ability to identify, track, and study high-altitude surveillance
balloons connected with the Chinese military.” Casual observers could be
forgiven for refusing to take the president’s word for it. Nothing about
the initially paralytic response to the discovery of a
Chinese spy balloon over Montana, the downplaying of its significance, and the sudden about-face
on shooting it and anything else that moved out of the sky conveys a command of
the situation.
This bout of trigger-happy panic would be disconcerting
enough if the White House hadn’t tried to disguise its discombobulation by
appealing to flippancy. “I know there have been questions and concerns about
this,” Jean-Pierre offered without solicitation, “but there is no
— again no indication — of aliens or extraterrestrial activity with these
recent takedowns.” The press predictably lapped up the opportunity to cover the “national craziness” over what’s in our skies and the violent means taken to address it as they would an
appetite-whetting human-interest story. But that betrays only their discomfort
in processing what we all witnessed.
Only after the public had on its own come to terms with
the administration’s befuddlement did the president come out and admit as much,
but in a tenor that conveyed his firm determination to deter American balloon
enthusiasts from challenging the geostrategic status quo. In the absence of an
unspoken imperative to avoid providing Republicans with political fodder, it’s
likely that the fourth estate would regard the administration’s erratic,
hair-trigger approach to dealing with inexplicable aerial phenomena as
something other than a passing news cycle. Given that imperative, it will be
left to Republicans to litigate these events and the White House’s response to
them. Democrats and their allies in the press had better hope the public is as
uninterested in what the GOP might find as it appears to be.
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