By David Harsanyi
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Don’t think of the 2016 presidential election as a
popularity contest. Think of it as a race to see who the American electorate
detests slightly less.
These days, there’s a lot of excitement in Trumpland.
Since March, the billionaire has picked up 11 points in The Washington Post-ABC News national poll, nudging him slightly
ahead of Hillary Clinton with a 46-44 percent lead. In a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll we find a
similar statistical tie, with Clinton leading by three points, 46-43 percent.
Most polls show a predictable partisan split.
Trump is “surging,” they say.
Now, I’m not sure why we keep treating national polls
with such deference. For one thing, it’s way too early. Obama, for instance,
was leading McCain by a couple of points in April 2008 in the same NBC/WSJ
poll. For another, as liberal columnist Juan Williams pointed out, it’s far
more informative to take a state-by-state look at polls, where we see just how
difficult it’ll probably be for the presumptive GOP nominee to win the general.
Still, naturally, it’s better to gain in the polls than
not.
The relative closeness of the race might come as somewhat
of a surprise to those who’ve seen the unprecedented antagonism of the GOP
primaries, Trump’s general obnoxiousness, and ongoing efforts by intrepid
conservatives to mount a third-party candidacy. It shouldn’t.
Although I’m still skeptical Trump will remain
competitive, it’s not inconceivable that voters who loathe the political class
with this much vigor may slap around conventional wisdom for a little bit
longer. There are plenty of pundits warning Democrats not to underestimate
Trump’s crossover appeal to independents, etc., but perhaps Democrats are just
seriously overestimating Hillary’s appeal.
Both candidates are disliked “or even hated” by around
six in 10 Americans, according to a new NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll.
According to the NBC/WSJ poll, more than of half of registered voters claim
their vote is mostly about opposing the other candidate. In a Washington Post-ABC News survey and a
new CBS/New York Times poll, both
candidates are on their way to unfavorables approaching the 60 percent
territory. Trump’s is a bit higher than Hillary’s.
Thanks to Hillary, Trump’s unification of the GOP is
happening despite the candidate’s best
efforts. Anecdotally speaking, the rationalization I hear most from
conservatives who now begrudgingly back the billionaire has nothing to do with
the candidate’s policy positions, outlook, or temperament. It’s generally
little more than a deep detestation of Clinton, whom conservatives believe must
be stopped for the good of the country. The thought of her presidency is
unpalatable for most Republicans in a way that even an Obama term wasn’t.
President Obama’s favorability numbers in 2008 and 2012 were far better.
Hillary rouses a special kind of disdain. So does Trump,
who carries around historically low favorability numbers among female, black,
Hispanic, and Asian voters. But we shouldn’t forget that a chunk of those
numbers are already baked into the electoral cake for Republicans. The GOP
candidate was going to lose those groups anyway, even if a soft-spoken
establishmentarian had won the primary. Obama, for instance, won 73 percent of
Asian-Americans in 2012. How many will Hillary win? 75? Right now, 68 percent
have a favorable view of her. The numbers may be similar, but they are unlikely
to be much worse.
Don’t get me wrong, Trump will almost certainly
exacerbate the GOP’s minority problem in the long run and ensure that it’s a
generational issue. But let’s put it this way: although it’s true that all the
ugly things Democrats usually say about Republican candidates might actually be
true this cycle, it doesn’t look like it will shake up the traditional dynamics
of a partisan presidential election in the short term. The only way it seems
that Trump will suffer is if his own party turns on him (fingers crossed).
This is mostly due to the fact that Hillary is a
galvanizing force for conservatives like few others.
Is she the same for liberals? She does not possess the
charisma of Obama. Nor the idealism. Her campaign is predicated on a single
unbreakable promise: she will do whatever it takes to be president. She is a
woman, yes. She will promise to protect Obama’s legacy — a collection of
policies that half the country still doesn’t like. No one trusts her to keep
her word. She is ethically compromised. The unfolding Terry McAuliffe mess —
and the entire decade of the 90s, to think of it — should remind us that the
Clintons are always on the brink of a scandal.
These are not things that will make her any more popular.
(All of these things, incidentally, also make good fodder for the #NeverTrump
argument that conservatives should sit this one out. An ethically compromised,
unpopular, unreliable liberal presidency would almost certainly reanimate
conservatism.)
It’s early. A lot of things can disrupt these dynamics.
Perhaps it will be the Libertarian or third-party candidates, although at this
point Libertarian Gary Johnson, who is polling at 10 percent in a number of
polls, is drawing more from Clinton than he is from Trump. As it stands now,
the luckiest thing that’s happened to candidate Trump might be Hillary.
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