By Ross Douthat
Saturday, May 07, 2016
There are many lessons that conservatives need to learn
from the rise of Donald Trump. There are elements of his message that the party
should embrace. There are grievances among his voters that the Republican Party
must address.
But for conservatives to support Trump himself, to assist
in his election as president of the United States, would be a terrible mistake.
It would be a particularly stark mistake for
conservatives who feel that the basic Reaganite vision that’s dominated their
party for decades — a fusion of social conservatism, free-market economics, and
a hawkish internationalism — still gets things mostly right.
In large ways and small, Trump has consistently arrayed
himself against this vision. True, he paid lip service to certain Reaganite ideas
during the primaries — claiming to be pro-life, promising a supply-side tax
cut, pledging to appoint conservative judges. But the core of his message was
protectionist and nativist, comfortable with an expansive welfare state, bored
with religious conservatism, and dismissive of the commitments that constitute
the post-Cold War Pax Americana. And Trump’s policy forays since clinching the
nomination have only confirmed his post-Reagan orientation.
Reaganite conservatives who help elevate Trump to the presidency,
then, would be sleepwalking toward a kind of ideological suicide. Successful
party leaders often transform parties in their image. William Jennings Bryan
and Woodrow Wilson between them turned a conservative Democratic Party
progressive. Dwight Eisenhower all but extinguished G.O.P. isolationism. Reagan
himself set liberal Republicanism on the path to extinction.
A successful President Trump (and to support him is to
hope for such a thing) could easily do the same to Reaganism. In a fully-Trumpized
G.O.P., Reagan’s ideological coalition would crack up, with hawks drifting
toward the Democrats, supply-siders fading into crankery, religious
conservatives entering semi-permanent exile. And in its place a Trumpized
Republican intelligentsia would arise, with as little interest in Reaganism as
today’s conservatives have in the ideas of Nelson Rockefeller or Jacob Javits.
The things conservatives are telling themselves to
justify supporting him — at least he
might appoint good judges — miss this long-term point. The Reagan coalition
might — might! — get an acceptable Supreme Court appointment out of the Trump
presidency. But that could easily be the last thing it ever got.
But what if you’re a conservative who isn’t a Reaganite,
or you believe that Reaganite ideas have long passed their sell-by dates? What
if you agree with Trump about the folly of the Iraq War, the perils of open
immigration policies, or the need for a different right-wing economic agenda?
What if you think his populism might bring about some necessary creative
destruction to a backward-looking G.O.P.?
Then supporting Trump for president could make
ideological sense, and the crackup I’ve just described might seem like an
advertisement for doing so.
But there still remains the problem of Trump himself.
Even if you find things to appreciate in Trumpism — as I have, and still do —
the man who has raised those issues is still unfit for an office as awesomely
powerful as the presidency of the United States.
His unfitness starts with basic issues of temperament. It
encompasses the race-baiting, the conspiracy theorizing, the flirtations with
violence, and the pathological lying that have been his campaign-trail stock in
trade.
But above all it is Trump’s authoritarianism that makes
him unfit for the presidency — his stated admiration for Putin and the Chinese
Politburo, his promise to use the power of the presidency against private
enterprises, the casual threats he and his surrogates toss off against party
donors, military officers, the press, the speaker of the House, and more.
All presidents are tempted by the powers of the office,
and congressional abdication has only increased that temptation’s pull.
President Obama’s power grabs are part of a bipartisan pattern of Caesarism,
one that will likely continue apace under Hillary Clinton.
But far more than Obama or Hillary or George W. Bush,
Trump is actively campaigning as a Caesarist, making his contempt for
constitutional norms and political niceties a selling point. And given his mix
of proud ignorance and immense self-regard, there is no reason to believe that
any of this is just an act.
Trump would not be an American Mussolini; even our
sclerotic institutions would resist him more effectively than that. But he
could test them as no modern president has tested them before — and with them,
the health of our economy, the civil peace of our society and the stability of
an increasingly perilous world.
In sum: It would be possible to justify support for Trump
if he merely promised a period of chaos for conservatism. But to support Trump
for the presidency is to invite chaos upon the republic and the world. No
policy goal, no court appointment, can justify such recklessness.
To Trumpism’s appeal, to Trump’s constituents,
conservatives should listen and answer “yes,” or “maybe,” or “not that, but how
about…”
But to Trump himself, there is no patriotic answer except
“no.”
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