By Michael Barone
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
John Quincy Adams, our greatest secretary of state
(sorry, Hillary Clinton fans), thought that Cuba would inevitably become part
of the United States. It hasn’t, at least not yet, but two Cuban Americans were
serious presidential contenders this year.
Yes, neither Marco Rubio nor Ted Cruz won the Republican
nomination, instead suspending their campaigns the nights they lost the Florida
and Indiana primaries, respectively. But they did become Donald Trump’s most
serious competition. And if you imagine a few things happening a bit
differently, you might plausibly believe that one of them would now be mulling
his VP pick and preparing an acceptance speech for Cleveland.
Rubio, born May 1971, and Cruz, born December 1970, are
young for presidential contenders. Neither was eligible to vote for Ronald
Reagan or George Bush in the 1980s. Rubio was a college senior and Cruz a
first-year law student when Bill and Hillary Clinton entered the White House in
January 1993.
Neither was a national figure when Barack Obama was
elected in 2008. Rubio was ending a two-year term as speaker of the Florida
house of representatives. Cruz was serving as solicitor general of Texas,
appointed by Attorney General (now Governor) Greg Abbott.
Donald Trump was already flirting with the idea of
running for president in the 1990s, two decades ago. Just about no one eight
years ago imagined that Rubio or Cruz would be serious candidates this year.
Yet for those who follow politicians closely, there were
signs. Rubio’s farewell speech to the Florida house, recounting how the son of
an immigrant bartender could rise in America, got rave reviews on conservative
websites.
Cruz, though unable to leverage his Bush-campaign
experience to a White House job, was cultivating conservative legal and
political insiders. I remember him asking me whether he should run for attorney
general of Texas if Abbott ran for governor in 2012. (I said it was up to him;
the eventuality did not arise.)
These were signs that both men had serious political
ambitions, but so do many young men and women. And neither had much in the way
of institutional or establishment support when he challenged a leading
politician for a Senate seat in the Obama-administration years.
Rubio’s initial opponent for the Senate in 2010 was the
incumbent Republican governor of Florida, Charlie Crist. When others backed out
of the race, Rubio stayed in and got endorsements from county Republican
organizations dismayed by Crist’s liberal policies and (literal) embrace of
Barack Obama on a 2009 Florida visit.
Crist withdrew from the Republican race and ran as an
independent. That meant that Rubio won easily in the Republican primary and in
a three-way general election.
In the 2012 Texas open-seat Senate contest, Cruz
challenged the wealthy lieutenant governor, David Dewhurst, whom most
officeholders, including Governor Rick Perry, supported. Cruz ran a strong
second in the initial primary, won the runoff, and coasted to a party-line
victory in November.
As young senators from the third- and second-largest
states, Rubio and Cruz could have settled in for long legislative careers.
Instead both set their sights higher, and suffered setbacks. Rubio’s
co-sponsorship of the Gang of Eight’s immigration bill was rejected by most
Republicans and hurt him in 2016. Cruz’s call to repeal Obamacare by
threatening a government shutdown antagonized Republican leaders and Senate
colleagues.
Nevertheless, their skill sets served them well in the
presidential race. Rubio’s combination of shout-outs to cultural conservatives
and an emollient attitude toward those who disagree helped him win votes from
the religious Right and upscale suburbanites. Cruz’s stentorian style and
claims of adherence to conservative principles gave him strong support from
“very conservative” voters.
In different ways, both shone in debate, with only a few
lapses. Both ran well-organized campaigns, with Rubio rounding up endorsements
and Cruz building the race’s most disciplined and rigorous organization.
Both also attracted attacks, and not only from Donald
Trump. Rubio was the target of attack ads from Jeb Bush’s super PAC and a
debate ambush by the flailing Chris Christie. The latter allowed John Kasich to
finish second in New Hampshire with only 16 percent of the vote and to stay in
the race, siphoning off upscale voters from Rubio.
Now, after defeat by Donald Trump, both their careers
seem in tatters. Rubio is leaving the Senate and Cruz has close to 99 enemies
there. The lesson: Ambition and talent can take a politician a long way up —
and down.
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