By Victor Davis Hanson
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Almost a decade ago, Europeans and many progressive
Americans were lamenting how the United States was going to miss out on the
21st-century paradigm symbolized by the robust European Union. Neanderthal
Americans were importing ever more oil while waging a costly "war on
terror" and fighting two conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our budget
deficit in 2003 hit $374 billion.
The EU avoided foreign conflicts and embraced soft power.
Its declining military budgets and centralized transnational government ensured
that it could address global warming and fund ever-expanding entitlements. Even
the poorer Mediterranean nations reached new heights of prosperity. The Greek
economy soared. Spain's real estate market was to become the hottest in the
world. Italy seemed to resemble Germany more than Portugal.
President George W. Bush was not just hated in Europe,
but caricatured as the symbol of backward free-market capitalism, rank American
consumerism and U.S. imperialism abroad. Only with the election of the progressive
Barack Obama would Europe finally find a like-minded, sophisticated American
president.
Yet European Union prosperity has now proved a phantom --
one conjured up by accounting gimmickry, borrowed German money and corrupt EU
apparatchiks. Neither the EU at large nor most individual European nations can
sustain their present rate of redistributionist entitlements. To end cash
transfers across borders spells the breakup of the union. To embrace austerity
at home ensures near anarchy in the streets of individual nations.
The worry is not that Greece will implode, but whether
France can remain financially solvent. More realistic countries such as
Germany, Latvia and Sweden are quietly drifting away from the socialist model,
preferring balanced budgets, lower taxes and fewer regulations.
The EU may be worried that Obama's United States is
becoming more like the EU at the very time many in Europe are starting to take
a second, kinder look at the old free-market model of the United States. An
America of low taxes, low unemployment and robust growth once meant a huge
market for European goods, as the United States drove a prosperous world
economy and had enough cash to protect the Western world.
All that has changed after four years of unprecedented $1
trillion-plus U.S. budget deficits. National debt has hit a historic $16
trillion, with no reversal in sight. Unemployment has been at 7.8 percent or
above for 48 consecutive months. GDP growth is calcified at an anemic 2
percent. Record numbers of Americans draw on unemployment, disability and food
stamps.
There is even greater irony in foreign policy. Europe
blasted Bush for his cooked-up war on radical Islam and his needless
interventions abroad. But with the ascendency of Barack Obama, Europe finally
got a mirror image of itself. Both Iraq and Afghanistan will have ended
according to strict timetables of withdrawal, not with any lasting security on
the ground.
France and Great Britain went into Libya, while America
"led from behind." Muammar Gadhafi's dictatorship was replaced with
chaos that has birthed a terrorist haven that threatens to become the new
Afghanistan. The odious anti-Semite and Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Morsi
now runs a near-bankrupt Egypt that looks a lot like Haiti. After the messes in
Libya and Egypt, the West watched impotently as Syria became something like
Mogadishu.
France is forced to unilaterally intervene in its old
colony, Mali, to stop an Islamist takeover of the entire country. America
watches from the sidelines, as undermanned French forces are offered meager
logistical support from EU allies. In Algeria, radical Islamists brazenly
executed dozens of Western hostages.
Yet Obama has found widespread public support for his new
isolationism. Apparently, liberals prefer to borrow money at home for more
entitlements rather than spend money on interventions abroad. Many
conservatives enjoy the schadenfreude of watching as Europe plays (poorly) the
old thankless unilateral role of the United States.
Obama has loudly promised a pivot in the U.S. security
profile toward the Pacific region. That change represents the unspoken reality
that socialist redistribution has reduced Europe to near-irrelevancy.
Supposedly, free-market Asian economies are the new nexus of wealth and power.
Oil and gas finds in America are providing unexpected energy independence from
the Persian Gulf. Or perhaps the new strategic emphasis reflects the
demographic realities of the Obama coalition of various minority groups -- and fewer
European-American voters.
The Hawaiian-born and Indonesia-raised president
certainly seems more interested in Asia than he does in the old colonial
Mediterranean world of aging and shrinking European nations, Arab quagmires,
oil intrigue, Islamic terrorists and the Israeli-Palestinian open sore.
In short, Europe got the European Union of its hopes and
a changed America of its fantasies -- but both are rapidly becoming its worst
nightmares.
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