By Katrina Trinko
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
When I was a 21-year-old college graduate, my job — like
plenty of the jobs people settle for in their 20s — didn’t include health
insurance. Being a cautious sort, I was reluctant to forgo insurance entirely:
What if I was that one unusual young adult who would face a serious, expensive
health crisis? So I bought a high-deductible plan that was $60 a month (and
tried not to think about how much ramen that money could have bought).
While I ultimately chose to go the catastrophic-coverage
route, I could probably have afforded more extensive coverage. But for young
adults in 2014 and beyond — when Obamacare is fully implemented — that may not
be the case.
In fact, for young adults — the majority of whom voted
for Obama and supported Obamacare — the implementation of Obamacare could
result in health-insurance premiums’ rising significantly. Young, single adults
who make about $25,000 a year or more will face premium hikes of 42 percent in
the individual market, according to an analysis conducted by consulting firm
Oliver Wyman and published in the American Academy of Actuaries’ Contingencies.
That’s some reward for their loyal advocacy for Obama and his health-care
policy. Single thirtysomethings who are ineligible for exchange subsidies will
be affected as well, with their premiums likely to increase by 31 percent.
There’s one key age group that will be barely affected by
Obamacare: 60- to 64-year-olds, whose premiums are expected to increase by only
1 percent.
That makes sense, because a key component of Obamacare is
its limitation on how much more health insurers may charge one customer than
another. As Avik Roy wrote in Forbes, “Under free-market conditions — what
insurance pros call experience rating — the typical 18-year-old costs one-sixth
what it costs to insure the typical 64-year-old. But Obamacare, in a sop to the
AARP, requires that insurers only charge three times as much to their costliest
beneficiaries what they charge to their least-costly ones.”
In other words, here’s what Obamacare “gives” young
adults: a requirement to subsidize the health-care costs of their elders, who
have had decades to increase their salary and save. And the pain is going to be
widespread, according to analysts Kurt Giesa and Chris Carlson: “We estimate
that almost 80 percent of those ages 21 to 29 with incomes greater than 138
percent of [the federal poverty level] who are enrolled in nongroup single
coverage can expect to pay more out of pocket for coverage than they pay today
— even after accounting for premium assistance.” In 2011, 9.9 million people
bought primary or additional health coverage on the individual market,
according to the Census.
It’s true that young adults will be permitted to stay on
their parents’ plans until they are 26. But that’s cold comfort to those
between 27 and 39, who are also facing steep increases, or to those without
access to a parent’s plan.
Another possible way out for young adults will be
catastrophic coverage — but that’s primarily meant for those 30 and under, with
much stricter requirements for those over 30. Furthermore, there are plenty of
young adults who would like to purchase a plan with more coverage, but at a
rate that acknowledges the low risk they pose to the insurer. I’ve seen this
myself: Catastrophic coverage was fine when I was 21, but it wouldn’t have
worked out so well for me in the years immediately after. And another
unintended side effect of Obamacare? Some young adults who have been buying more
extensive health-insurance coverage might look at the new rates and opt out,
switching to catastrophic coverage.
In fact, it’s likely that plenty of young adults will
forgo health insurance entirely. They’ll have to pay for the privilege — the
cost of avoiding the mandate will rise to 2.5 percent of a person’s income
after 2016 — but the mandate penalty will be far less than the cost of
insurance, according to Giesa and Carlson:
Consider, for example, a 25-year-old person with income
at 300 percent of [the federal poverty level], or $33,510. This person
currently could purchase coverage for about $2,400 per year, or 7.2 percent of
his or her income. Age band compression and the other changes to the
[Affordable Care Act] would result in premiums (before premium assistance)
increasing by 42 percent to $3,408. . . . This person at 300 percent FPL will
be required to pay 9.5 percent of his or her income, or $3,183, toward the cost
of coverage. The cost of his or her actual premium would increase by $783, even
with the $225 in premium assistance.
Ultimately, it won’t be the millionaires and billionaires
who will be paying painful amounts because of Obamacare. Instead, it will be
the young woman working at a Brooklyn coffee shop, the young musician
struggling to cobble together a living from random gigs and busing tables, the
twentysomething professional struggling to pay the bills while working during
the day and attending grad school at night. They — not the Warren Buffett types
— are going to really suffer as they sign yet more off to Uncle Sam.
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