By Victor Davis Hanson
Wednesday, January 02, 2013
George W. Bush left office in January 2009 with one of
the lowest job-approval ratings for a president (34 percent) since Gallup
started compiling them — as compared to Harry Truman’s low of 32 percent,
Richard Nixon’s of 24 percent, and Jimmy Carter’s of 34 percent — and to the
general derision of the media.
At times the venom accorded Bush in popular culture
reached absurd — and even sick — levels. Alfred A. Knopf, for example,
infamously published Nicholson Baker’s Checkpoint, a pathetic riff on shooting
Bush. Gabriel Range’s unhinged 2006 “docudrama,” The Death of a President,
focused on an imagined assassination of President Bush (imagine the outcry
should any filmmaker today update that topos). A sick Charlie Brooker op-ed in
the Guardian called for another John Wilkes Booth or Lee Harvey Oswald to kill
Bush. Jonathan Chait of The New Republic more or less permanently ruined his
reputation by writing an adolescent rant on “the case for Bush hatred,” one
that began creepily with “I hate President George W. Bush.” Try substituting
another president’s name for Bush’s and see what the reaction of The New
Republic would be.
All that hysteria once led to Charles Krauthammer’s
identification of “Bush Derangement Syndrome” — a pathology in which the
unbalanced seemed to channel all their anxieties, frustrations, and paranoias
onto George W. Bush. And yet, following 9/11, Bush had calmly led the nation
and enjoyed one of the highest positive appraisals of any president since the
advent of modern polling, when for months he registered a 90 percent approval
rating; indeed, he averaged a 62 percent approval rating over his first four years.
Yet, as with all presidents, with time and a successor
come perspective. So it is not hard to see why the out-of-office Bush’s
likability ratings are slowly inching back up — most recently to 46 percent.
For reflection on Bush’s eight years in office, take a look back at the six
aspects of his presidency that harmed his popularity most — Iraq and its
attendant controversies, the federal response to Hurricane Katrina, the
so-called Bush-Cheney anti-terrorism protocols, the September 2008 financial
meltdown, the chronic budget deficits, and the general impression that Bush was
singularly inarticulate and prone to embarrassing gaffes.
“Bush lied, thousands died,” was a popular mantra that
followed from the absence of stockpiles of WMD in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq — the
chief casus belli of the Iraq War. But looking back, quite apart from the
politics of the moment, we now remember that Congress had approved 23 writs
authorizing the removal of Saddam Hussein. The pro-war speeches of John Kerry
and Hillary Clinton were simply amplifications of President Clinton’s signing
into law of the 1998 “Iraq Liberation Act,” in which were outlined in graphic
detail the dangers of the Hussein WMD arsenal. We do not know what exactly
happened to those weapons, but perhaps the end sometime soon of the Bashar
Assad regime in Syria — amid rampant rumors of a sizable WMD depot — could shed
some light on prior cross-border traffic between Assad and Hussein. More
important, Saddam Hussein’s oil-rich Iraq never became another North Korea or
Iran. His removal also had a salutary effect in convincing Moammar Qaddafi to
dismantle his own WMD program, and may have helped to convince Assad to leave
Lebanon. In any case, Saddam was the first of many Middle Eastern strongmen to
fall.
The 2007 Bush decision, opposed by most in Congress and
many in his own party, to implement the surge proposed by David Petraeus and
his advisers saved Iraq — at least in the sense that at the time of the abrupt
departure of U.S. troops at the end of 2011, Iraq was a mostly quiet country,
with a burgeoning rate of GDP growth, and that it escaped the violence of the
Arab Spring. For all the conspiracy talk of “No blood for oil,” the United
States seems to have ensured both that Iraqi petroleum bidding was transparent
and that American oil companies were not much involved.
Barack Obama in 2008 ran on Iraq as the “bad” Bush war
(he had called for all U.S. troops out by late 2008), while supporting
Afghanistan as the necessary UN/NATO–sanctioned conflict. Yet Obama’s tenure
coincided with an enormous upswing in American deaths in Afghanistan (630 total
fatalities during Bush’s eight years; 1,543 during Obama’s first four), with
relatively light fatalities in Iraq (264 deaths) from 2009 through 2012.
Indeed, Americans were to die in Afghanistan during the Obama administration at
over five times the monthly rate during the Bush years — for a variety of
reasons still poorly understood.
Such data are not to suggest that the occupation of Iraq
between 2003 and 2009 was not flawed, or that Afghanistan could not have been
better managed from 2001 to 2009 — only that challenges as diverse as
intelligence about WMD (whether in Iraq, Syria, Libya, or Iran) and putting
ground troops anywhere in the Middle East plague any president confronted with
them. The Obama “lead from behind” strategy in Libya, for example, did not
result in a more stable, more democratic nation, but began a chaotic trajectory
that led to the murder of an American ambassador and three others in Benghazi,
amid mayhem in a country overrun by Islamic insurgents.
Few cared to hear the arguments that there was more to
the Hurricane Katrina fiasco than Bush-administration incompetence, despite the
fact that next-door Mississippi, for example, seemed to employ state and local
services far more effectively than did the largely incompetent New Orleans
mayor Ray Nagin and Louisiana governor Kathleen Blanco. Both botched the
evacuation and the recovery, well apart from the inexcusable and chronic lapses
of FEMA. The recent Hurricane Sandy response reminds us both how much an
effective governor, like New Jersey’s Chris Christie, can do in a natural
disaster — and, again, how sluggish and unresponsive are federal agencies,
whether overseen by Bush or Obama.
Little more need be said about the hysteria over the
Bush-Cheney anti-terrorism protocols, other than that most of their critics
went silent when the former critic President Obama, quite mysteriously,
embraced or even expanded almost all of them — apparently on the post-election
realization that something that had prevented another 9/11 for a subsequent
seven years should not be summarily ended. Guantanamo is still open. Renditions
and tribunals remain in effect. Predator-drone missions vastly increased under
Obama, and are such a part of the current landscape that the president can joke
about siccing drones on any potential suitors of his two daughters. The Patriot
Act and its subsidiaries have become institutionalized. Meanwhile, early grand
talk by the Obama administration of trying arch-terrorist Khalid Sheikh
Mohammed in a civilian court, indicting CIA officials for enhanced
interrogations, and moving detained terrorists from Guantanamo to the Midwest
all have come to nothing. Perhaps the chief anti-terrorism difference between
the Bush and Obama administrations, at least as it has pertained to the vast
majority of suspected terrorists, is that the former sought to capture and
interrogate them, while the latter prefers blowing them up — along with anyone
else caught in the general vicinity of a strike — through remote-control
Hellfire missiles.
Over four years after the September 2008 financial
meltdown, we are beginning to sense just how Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
empowered Wall Street greed, by guaranteeing profitable but risky subprime
loans in an inflated housing market. The cast of culpable characters involved
in that tragedy is now well known, including, on the congressional end,
Representatives Barney Frank and Maxine Waters, and Senator Chris Dodd, who not
merely demanded more federal guarantees, but also berated any who doubted the
viability of such massive borrowing. Dodd is now gone from office and Frank
soon will be, and Waters remains under suspicion of influence peddling. Their
careers are bookends to those of parasitic hacks and cronies like the Carter
and Clinton retreads Franklin Raines, James Johnson, and Jamie Gorelick, who
occupied the top jobs at Fannie Mae. None of the three had much if any banking
experience, but all three walked away with millions of dollars in bonuses after
all but destroying their agency.
The Bush administration was not culpable for creating the
mess, though it may have been for not more resolutely trying to stop it — an
effort, however, that would have been caricatured in the liberal Congress as an
insensitive attempt to deny the poor their God-given rights to buy a house. We
also forget that Barack Obama did not take office on September 21, 2008, but
four months later, when the stock market was calming and the panic mostly over,
while the federal TARP mechanisms for stabilization were in place and found
useful by the incoming Obama administration.
What helped to sink Bush’s ratings among conservatives,
however, was the chronic budget deficits that over two terms added more than $4
trillion to the national debt. Barack Obama seized on that profligacy, calling
Bush “unpatriotic” for it and promising to halve the Bush annual deficit by the
end of his first term, while blasting the “Bush tax cuts” that supposedly were
the source of fiscal shortfalls and had only benefited the rich.
But Obama more than equaled Bush’s eight-year borrowing
in just four. Apparently, he also conceded that the once-derided Bush tax cuts
had actually increased federal revenue while spurring the economy, since he soon
insisted upon retaining them for all but those making over $250,000.
A comparative analysis of the Bush and Obama deficits
between 2001 and 2012 proves disadvantageous to the latter: George Bush
averaged a 2.7 percent ratio of deficits to GDP (less than those of Reagan or
George H. W. Bush), Barack Obama so far 8.9 percent. Under Bush, quite
excessive federal spending reached about 20 percent of GDP, but under Obama it
has already grown to 24 percent. Such comparisons are controversial, given that
budgetary responsibility for presidents includes incoming and outgoing years,
in which they are not fully in charge of spending. Yet whether we count Bush’s
responsibility from 2001 to 2008 or 2002 to 2009, and Obama’s from 2009 to 2012
or 2010 to 20012, we are nevertheless arguing whether the latter doubled or
nearly tripled the Bush rate of borrowing. As far as unemployment goes, every
month of the Obama administration has seen jobless rates higher than they were
in any one month of Bush’s eight years.
All this is not to defend the irresponsible Bush
deficits, which grew federal spending astronomically and diminished the
reputation of his tax cuts, which had raised greater revenue. The cataclysm of,
and reaction to, 9/11 and the 2008 meltdown accounted for some of the expanding
debt, as well as the Democratic Congress after 2006, but in the end the Bush
administration devalued the reputation of conservatives as fiscal hawks and
enabled Obama to borrow as never before.
Bush was often awkward in public expression, but his
“nucular” seems no worse than Obama’s “corpse-men.” He mangled sentences and
aphorisms, but Obama has more than trumped that with his bows to foreign
monarchs and strange pronouncements, from referring to 57 states to mocking the
Special Olympics. An Internet search of Bush and Obama gaffes yields comparable
results to a search for those committed by Bush I, Reagan, Carter, and Ford.
Bush’s time-off chain-sawing on his arid Texas ranch was a far cry from the
Obamas’ vacations in chic Costa del Sol or Martha’s Vineyard, and Bush ceased
playing golf in 2003 in deference to American soldiers fighting and dying
abroad. In contrast to Bush’s 24 rounds of golf in eight years, wartime
president Barack Obama has now played 110 rounds in four years.
What is different is not the degree to which the two
Harvard alumni at times seemed confused in the limelight, but that the partisan
media were determined to suggest that the similarly accruing lapses were
incidental to Obama’s genius, but a window into Bush’s imbecility.
Scandal-wise, Bush experienced no Watergate, Iran-Contra, or impeachment. The
Scooter Libby media circus — a trial for a crime that was not a crime, and to
which someone else had earlier confessed — seems minor in comparison to the
secretary of the Treasury’s avoiding his taxes, the HHS director’s being mired
in several controversies, the EPA director’s using an alias to hide official
communications, and assorted lethal scandals like Fast and Furious and
Benghazi, along with the tawdry GSA and Secret Service disclosures.
Bush’s aid to Africa to combat the AIDS epidemic saved
millions of lives. He was a strong proponent of increasing gas and oil
development, and he made good appointments to the Supreme Court. The work of
Justices Roberts and Alito so far is more impressive than that of Justices
Sotomayor and Kagan.
Obama’s “millions of green jobs” has led to boondoggles
like Solyndra, the cancelation of the Keystone pipeline, and inane
administration quips about wishing for American gas prices to match European
ones and for skyrocketing rates for coal-produced electricity. In his debates
with Mitt Romney, Obama did not refer to his wind- and solar-power subsidies,
but instead took credit for increased U.S. fossil-fuel production — although
oil and gas companies had found huge new finds on private land despite, rather
than because of, the Obama administration.
George W. Bush was not as dismal a president as the
popular culture and media once assumed — a fact that will grow clearer as the
age of Obama continues.
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