By Jim Geraghty
Saturday, July 13, 2024
When the Washington Post’s pollster recently
asked, “Given his performance in the debate, which of these do you think Biden
should do?” overall, 30 percent of respondents answered that Biden “should
continue his campaign for president” and 67 percent said “step aside and let
someone else run.” But among African-American respondents, 47 percent said
“continue his campaign for president” and 49 percent said “let someone else
run.” Those aren’t great numbers, but by comparison, African Americans are
Biden’s base of support at the moment.
This is what I am hearing from so
many Black Americans and especially Black women who feel 1) That their vote,
decision and concerns are being undermined by non-Black people in the
Democratic Party 2) That too many people reporting and commenting do not seem
to understand the stakes. 3) That perhaps the polling is reflecting a
Democratic Party that is attacking its own candidate rather than the opposing
one.
The Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, during our panel discussion yesterday:
Aunt Gloria is 100 percent with
President Biden, thinks that he should stay in the race, thinks that–she’s
like, yeah, he’s 81 years’ old, but with that 81 years you get wisdom and
experience that’s needed for the country right now.
My mother is completely turned off
by all the Democrats who are telling the president to get out of the race. It
is driving her mad because it’s as if folks are forgetting about the bigger
issue, and that is our democracy. She thinks Democrats are trying to throw away
the democracy, given who he’s running against, all because he’s 81 years old.
In a recent CNN appearance, Ashley Allison, national coalitions
director for the Biden-Harris 2020 campaign, described herself as “furious”
over the current arguments:
“I’m a little annoyed and I’m
furious because I talk to Black people who have saved this country over and
over, who helped elect Joe Biden, who saved the Democratic
Party timeless, timeless, times again and Black people are saying, ‘let it
go folks,’… And yet again, when you look at the people who have called for him
to step down, they are not the backbone of the Democratic Party and that, to
me, is frustrating.”
MSNBC host Symone D. Sanders-Townsend, a former deputy
assistant to Biden and a former senior adviser to and chief spokesperson for
Vice President Kamala Harris:
This is the reality of the moment
we’re in, in discussions I’ve had with folks who are members of the Democratic
Party and have pledged their support to Biden, I have not heard many Black
women voters say that they are walking away from him. Right now, it’s still
President Biden’s name at the top of the ticket — it’s the Biden-Harris ticket
and Democrats should act as such.
Now, you might think that African Americans, as a
demographic, would be more eager to see Kamala Harris as the Democratic
nominee; but judging from these numbers and comments, they are the demographic
least interested in seeing Biden withdraw and for Kamala Harris to become the
Democratic nominee, at least in this cycle.
Now, Harris is younger, more energetic, and can handle
the rigors of a campaign schedule much better than Joe Biden can at this point.
From where I sit, her ability to do all that makes her no riskier than rolling the dice that Biden
doesn’t have another atrocious performance between now and Election Day. But
there are a lot of Democrats who see it differently. Post columnist
Jen Rubin, during yesterday’s discussion:
An African-American woman who was,
until recently, the head of an enormous civil rights organization; and another
woman, who is head of another huge Democratic organization, these are people
who have worked all their lives in the Democratic Party. They are both women of
color and they say, ‘oh, yeah, they’re going to put Kamala in there and then
they’re going to savage her. And then, if she loses, it will be the Black
woman’s fault.’
On the right, there’s a widespread perception of Harris
as ambitious and eager, just itching to take over. But notice that not only is
Harris publicly insisting that Biden should remain the nominee — which we would
expect in a situation like this — we haven’t heard any leaks of her arguing to
other Democrats that she should take over, or even many arguments from
like-minded Harris allies that the vice president should be the 2024 nominee.
What if Kamala Harris genuinely doesn’t want to be the
party’s nominee this year?
What if she can read a poll as well as anyone else, and thinks that
there’s a good chance she would lose to Trump? If Biden loses to Trump in
November, her reputation is intact — she did all she could, but the ticket
couldn’t overcome the liabilities of an octogenarian nominee who bombed (at
least) the first debate.
But if in November, Kamala Harris lost to Trump — after
January 6, after Trump’s indictments, after Trump’s convictions —
her reputation would be ruined, and she would never be the Democratic nominee
again.
And if Harris lost to Trump in 2024, after Hillary
Clinton lost in 2016, would that mean that Democrats would be hesitant to
nominate another woman for a long time to come?
For Democrats, the consequences of a Trump victory over
Biden are dire. But the consequences of a Trump victory over Harris are even
more catastrophic. If Biden can hang on, hold onto to the “blue wall” states,
and hold on against a famously erratic Republican who has demonstrated he has a
hard ceiling of support, Democrats are home free. Harris can take over on the
afternoon of January 20, 2025, if the Bidens are amenable.
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