Republicans See Odds Improve in the Race for House Control

By Henry Olsen

Sunday, June 30, 2024

 

November’s election looks to be a nail-biter at all levels, but not all close races are created equal. The race for House control could still go either way — but it tilted clearly toward the Republicans before Biden’s debate debacle.

 

That’s the consensus view of the top election analysts, at least. Three I look at the most — Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, and University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball — each have more seats listed as leaning to safe for the GOP than for the Democrats. Their range isn’t that different either, going from 210 Republican seats (Cook) to 216 (Inside Elections). Each publication gives the GOP between a five- and seven-seat advantage over the Democrats.

 

They also agree regarding the seats in the middle, the proverbial “toss-ups.” Each entity rates an equal number of seats currently held by either party as up for grabs, suggesting that neither side is especially or uniquely vulnerable. That’s not normally the case in potential wave election years like 2010 or 2018, where the weaker party would be defending many more seats than its foe.

 

The combination of these factors means Democrats would have to run the table among toss-ups to have a bare majority. Depending on the rater, they would have to take between two-thirds and 80 percent of the toss-ups to reach 218 seats. That’s very unlikely without a change in the underlying dynamics.

 

The overall partisan trend also slightly but clearly favors Republicans. The GOP leads the RealClearPolitics congressional generic ballot polling average by 0.6 percent and has held a small but steady lead most of the time since last September. That’s not a huge margin, but one must go back to 2016 to find an election in which the party that trailed by this measure in late June came from behind to win.

 

Even the precise districts labeled as toss-ups show a small but unmistakable GOP tilt. All three analysts place seven House seats in this category. Three are held by Democrats, and Biden either lost or won each seat by under two points. The other four are held by Republicans. Biden carried each by double digits, but there are mitigating factors in each. All four are defended by incumbents, and three are in California’s Central Valley or the New York City metropolitan area. Republicans ran much better in those areas in 2022 than in 2020, and polls thus far suggest those trends are sticking.

 

The same can be said of the ten districts that two of the three analysts rate as toss-ups. Seven of these are held by Democrats; Trump carried three of them, and Biden won the others by no more than six points. Only three are held by Republicans, and all are both defended by incumbents and are in either the Central Valley or the New York metro.

 

None of this says that the election is over and the GOP is a lock to keep control. A slight change in the partisan winds toward Democrats would complicate things. A few more GOP-held seats would move into the toss-up range and a couple of Democrat-held ones would likely fall out of it. An improvement in Biden’s job-approval rating would help Team Blue, too. None of these things is impossible; hence the need to hedge one’s bets and avoid taking a premature victory lap.

 

But the same things could happen in the GOP’s direction, too. Say the “double haters” — voters who dislike both Trump and Biden — start to move in Trump’s direction. Some of those on-the-bubble GOP incumbents would look safer, while some Democrats just outside toss-up range would look more vulnerable. Alaska’s Mary Peltola and Ohio’s Marcy Kaptur represent seats where Trump won in 2020 and will surely win again on current polling. Just a slight move toward the GOP would push them from the “lean Democratic” camp into toss-up city.

 

Biden’s globally televised meltdown is just the type of development that could do that. House races have become more partisan over the last decade. Independent voters used to pick and choose among candidates with little regard for party label. Now they tend to decide who they want at the top of the ticket and back the rest of the party ticket down the line. Biden’s clear inability to perform at a minimally competent level will likely hurt the party that has resolutely backed him despite increasing concerns about his acuity.

 

House seat ratings also tend to move late because so little attention is paid to them before October. Most contested Senate races are already inundated with television ads on both sides. That won’t happen in House contests until after Labor Day, and maybe not until late September. A candidate can easily pick up momentum just as the voters who tend to follow politics only right before an election take notice.

 

So, hold on to your hats, the race for the House looks to be going to the wire. But nonetheless, it’s GOP ahead by half a length as the horses go into the back turn. And Biden’s stumble out of the gate may mean the lead will grow a lot on the back stretch.