By Noah Rothman
Thursday, November 10, 2022
We’ve
seen it before. Far too often, in fact. And so far, the cycle is playing out in
predictable stages.
First,
Donald Trump or his disciples turn in a poor performance at the polls, leaving
the GOP to mourn the loss of what were winnable races. Next, the pundits,
politicians, and institutions on the right that haven’t had much use for Trump
in the recent past bury the president and his movement in condemnations. Even
some sources ensconced in Trump’s orbit appear to share the
establishmentarians’ concerns, but not so much that they want to incur
consequences for echoing them on the record. So, they share them with reporters
on the condition of anonymity.
That’s
where we are today in the immediate aftermath of a depressing midterm cycle for
Republicans in which voters sought to cleanse the landscape of Trump’s
hand-picked cronies and neophytes. If the cycle continues as it has in the
past, this outburst of recriminations will soon face a retrograde counterattack
from the forces that owe their political relevance to Trump. In the end, the
fear of alienating the Republican voters who make up the base of the party’s
primary electorate usually wins out over the instinct to appeal to a broader
universe of voters. Trump’s critics stifle. His fans posture as though they’ve
won something. Everyone retreats to their respective corners, and the GOP goes
on losing.
That’s
what we might expect to see soon enough, though we haven’t seen it just yet.
The backlash against Trumpism—focusing less on MAGA-flavored policy preferences
and more on the surly affectation the former president cultivates in his
mimics—is coming from some auspicious quarters.
Former
Trump adviser Jason Miller, who joined a select few who spent election night in
Trump’s company, doesn’t evince any compunction about telling reporters that
he’s advising Trump to keep his head down for a while. “Georgia needs to be the
focus of every Republican in the country right now,” Miller said of the
forthcoming runoff election between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Hershel Walker.
For Miller, this means that Trump must, at the very least, put off his
intention to announce another presidential bid next week. “I’m not alone when I
say President Trump’s best moves are to put all his efforts to get Herschel
Walker elected,” he added.
Is Trump
even capable of making a positive contribution to that cause? Former Trump-era
Press Sec. Kayleigh
McEnany doesn’t
think so. “I think he needs to put it on pause,” she told reporters. “I think
we’ve got to make strategic calculations.” By contrast, she added, “Gov.
DeSantis, I think he should be welcomed to the state, given what happened last
night. You’ve got to look at the realities on the ground.” This concession to
reality was echoed by Trump adviser David Urban. “It is clear the center of gravity
of the Republican Party is in the state of Florida, and I don’t mean
Mar-a-Lago,” he confessed.
The
acute threat these admonitions present to Trump’s ego are unlikely to go
unanswered. And, according to Jonathan
Swan’s reporting in Axios, they won’t. While many of the courtiers caught in the former
president’s realm are reportedly begging Trump to postpone a presidential
announcement until the heat dies down, “he has no intention of listening to
that advice.” And why should he? If Trump is looking for evidence that this
burst of enthusiasm will fade like all the rest, he is getting the familiar
feedback he needs.
“Several
well-known Republicans declined an opportunity to tell Swan on the record that
they feel it’s time to move on from Trump,” Axios reported. Indeed, the
dispatches that reporters are filing from Mar-a-Lago are replete with unsourced
quotes from people close to Trump who would not otherwise speak candidly about
their boss’s predicament. And aspiring Republican ladder-climbers seem
unwilling to give up.
In
statements provided to the New York Times upon the paper’s solicitation,
some MAGA-friendly current and future lawmakers turned in lifeless and
perfunctory but nevertheless illustrative endorsements of their embattled
leader.
“It is
time for Republicans to unite around the most popular Republican in America who
has a proven track record of conservative governance,” read Rep. Elise
Stefanik’s endorsement of Trump’s presumed 2024 campaign. Senator-elect J.D.
Vance staked out a less unctuous position, merely deeming Trump “the most
popular figure in the Republican Party,” now and forever. Indiana Rep. Jim
Banks offered the unassailable observation that Trump “transformed our party,”
leaving it to his readers’ imaginations whether this metamorphosis has been a
desirable one.
The
nature of this particular backlash against Trump feels different only because
it is occurring alongside the emergence of a real competing power center inside
the GOP. Within the ocean of disappointments for the GOP, Florida Gov. Ron
DeSantis presides over an island of hope. Previously, when the power dynamic
inside the GOP was unipolar, Trump could weather intra-party criticisms. The
rise of a rival pole within the Republican infrastructure complicates things
for Trump.
But that
may not continue. And even if the draft DeSantis movement proves irresistible,
it will not manifest in a declared DeSantis presidential bid until after the
first legislative session of the governor’s second term is over in May. Plenty
of time for present passions to cool. Nor is DeSantis likely to be the only
figure who challenges Trump. And some potential rivals are far less popular
among Republican voters. Their presence in the national debate may hasten the
flight of anxious Republicans back into the Trump fold. The abject cowardice of
Trump’s unnamed critics and his rote endorsers is frustratingly familiar to
those who have seen similar anti-Trump insurrections put down.
Maybe
this time is different. Who knows? But it doesn’t look different yet.
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