A Senate Update

By Rich Lowry

Friday, October 14, 2022

 

I was talking to a Republican operative a little while ago who has been following the Senate races closely, and here’s what he’s seeing, for what it’s worth:

 

Herschel Is Looking Largely Unchanged

 

The question here was whether the latest allegation would break Walker’s campaign, or whether it would be absorbed into the general personal case against him, which has already been litigated harshly and extensively by Warnock. It looks like the latter. Internal polling earlier in the week showed Walker up by one, while public polling has, by and large, shown Warnock narrowly ahead.

 

Walker’s had trouble with Republicans. There’s going to be fall-off from the Brian Kemp vote to the Walker vote, but probably not many actual Kemp–Warnock voters. Small differences could make a big difference. It will matter whether Kemp gets 52 percent, which will make it very hard for Walker to get to 50 and avoid a runoff even if he’s ahead on Election Night, or if Kemp goes higher, which might put Walker over the top. It also matters whether the libertarian candidate gets 1–2 percent, or 3–4.

 

And, of course, the debate tonight will be important.

 

The Power of the Issue of Crime

 

This source says he’d never seen an issue move the needle as quickly as crime did with Mandela Barnes and John Fetterman — their images crashed in a matter of weeks. Ron Johnson is looking good. Mehmet Oz, meanwhile, has gotten the Senate contest to a margin-of-error race, where it’s stalled out for now. Like Walker, Oz has been underperforming with Republicans but has been working very hard to make inroads among black voters and is relatively strong among suburban women. His debate with Fetterman later this month will obviously be huge.

 

Don’t Sleep on Masters

 

Internal voting shows Arizona to be the most favorable political environment for Republicans of any competitive state in the country, with Biden underwater by something like 25 points and a robust Republican lead on the generic ballot. Blake Masters has inched closer to Mark Kelly, but Kelly is a strong candidate who has dumped tons of TV ads out there portraying himself as a moderate. That’s had an effect, but this one still isn’t done.

 

Nevada Is Looking Good

 

It’s looking like it could be a big night for Republicans up and down the ballot in Nevada. The economy is weak and gas prices are high, plus the culinary union is not as energized as usual and Hispanics are moving toward Republicans. Adam Laxalt has run a good race, and Republicans are quite bullish on this one.

 

To be continued . . .