Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Democratic Self-Segregation by Race Is as Embarrassing as It Is Menacing

By Noah Rothman

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

 

Kamala Harris’s allies deeply resent the suggestion that their candidate for the White House is the “DEI candidate” — that is, when they’re not promoting the idea that Harris “would be a DEI president” and “that’s a good thing.”

 

These conflicting messages are reconcilable only if you assume that they are designed to be consumed by distinct audiences who have little contact with one another. If Harris’s supporters are operating on the assumption that America’s political tribes self-segregate in that fashion, it would help explain the bizarre effort to categorize and sequester the vice president’s backers by race.

 

The Harris camp is dividing up its backers by their shared accidents of birth and directing them to virtual fundraisers dominated by those with similar traits — “including Black women, Hispanic women, Black men, Asian Americans, Native Americans, and the LGBTQ+ community,” the Associated Press reported. For example, the AP reporter on the job was wowed by the celebrities who dropped in on one indicative “White Dudes for Harris” virtual call. But this self-segregation does little to advance the Democratic claim that their opponents are the “weird” ones in this race.

 

Take, for example, Minnesota governor Tim Walz’s appearance on the “White Dudes” call. “How often in the world do you make that bastard” — i.e., Donald Trump — “wake up afterwards and know that a black woman kicked his ass and sent him on the road,” Walz asked his fellow Harris supporters. “And you know that’s something that guy is gonna have to live with for the rest of his life.”

 

The proposition to which Walz seems to subscribe is that there is something uniquely mortifying in being defeated by a “black woman.” . . . Why is that exactly? If we’re being charitable, we would conclude that Walz is accusing Trump of harboring racist or misogynistic sentiments (or both). But someone less inclined to polish Walz’s apple might wonder how he came up with that notion and why he thought an exclusively white, male audience would intuit his meaning.

 

Those are, at least, the conclusions to which political observers would instantly arrive if the partisan roles in this drama were reversed.

 

The fan-organized “White Women for Harris” call wasn’t any better, even though it was star-studded as its male-dominated counterpart and attracted a staggering 164,000 participants. In it, a presentation by a personality who goes by the sobriquet “Mrs. Frazzled” deployed a practiced shtick in which she summoned all her powers of condescension to explain what is expected of her fellow white women over the next 98 days.

 

“BIPOC women” — which is to say, women who are black, indigenous, and “people of color” — have “tapped us in,” said social-media influencer Arielle Fodor. “As white women, we need to use our privilege to make positive changes.” Apparently, the change she seeks involves being as contemptuously patronizing toward black Americans as possible.

 

“If you find yourself talking over or speaking for BIPOC individuals, or God forbid, correcting them, just take a beat and, instead, we can put our listening ears on,” Fodor added. “As white people, we have a lot to learn and unlearn. So do check your blind spots.”

 

Once again, we’re left to wonder how Fodor internalized the idea that Americans of minority descent are far too fragile to endure correction from or even disagreement with their melanin-deprived neighbors. And it’s up to us alone, apparently, to unpack the presumptions that led her to say as much without a hint of self-consciousness to an all-white audience.

 

DEI activists will be quick to inundate you with the data that supposedly convey the virtues of so-called racial affinity groups. Although the vast majority of Americans have no personal experience with organizations based on a “shared identity,” they are not hostile to the concept. When it comes to political organizing, they’ll be the first to insist that minority-dominated affinity groups are effective mobilization tools. But their efficacy doesn’t render the act of racial self-segregation any less pernicious.

 

Maybe it required the creation of wildly popular whites-only political clubs on the Left, which are equal parts embarrassing and menacing, to demonstrate that separatism breeds contempt.

The Legitimacy of the Court

By Michael Brendan Dougherty

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

 

Fred Bauer points out that almost all the declining trust in the Supreme Court as an institution is coming from progressives.

 

Regarding all the talk about the “crisis” of trust in the Supreme Court: The drop in trust in the Court in recent years is driven almost entirely by Democrats. Independents are basically where thy were on the Court a decade ago. pic.twitter.com/dpiKFWOBaH

 

— Fred Bauer (@fredbauerblog) July 31, 2024

 

I want to say very loudly, I predicted this. On January 3, 2018, I wrote:

 

So I’ve started to worry that if the Court soon consolidates to the left or the right, partisans on the losing end of that bargain will swiftly lose faith in democracy itself. . . . I can foresee both parties’ reaching for extraordinary measures if they felt that the Supreme Court had become the cat’s-paw of one party. The obvious bag of tricks includes states’ trying to nullify laws. Or one party could try to pack the Supreme Court with new justices to rectify or reverse the consolidation.

 

I’ve been thinking more on the problem since it became obvious that the court was consolidating on the right.

 

What is really going on here is that there are two operative and competing theories of legitimacy for the Court. Conservatives root their case in the idea that the Court should be what it has been since Marbury v. Madison, a player that decides whether legislative or executive action fits within the powers delimited by the written Constitution, as the Founders intended it. Progressives, although they rarely articulate it this way, took on board a new theory of legitimacy during the Warren Court era: namely, that the Supreme Court was legitimate insofar as it protected essential human rights, as defined by progressives, from the depredations of elected majorities. It’s not how our Founders designed the Court — and it would have horrified John Adams in particular — but it is a theory that will make deep moral sense to progressives about what anti-majoritarian branches of the government are supposed to do in any system.

On Court-Packing, Joe Biden Has Become Exactly What He Once Denounced

By Charles C. W. Cooke

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

 

At The Dispatch, Adam White makes a key point about the Biden-Harris administration’s execrable Court-packing plan. Having noted that he has “studied these issues for two decades, most recently as a member of the Presidential Commission on the Supreme Court of the United States, to which the president appointed me in 2021,” White concludes that:

 

The name gives it away, of course. They call it “term limits,” not “active-status limits,” precisely because the point is to end the justice’s term as a real “justice” as the office as been understood for more than two centuries.

 

And it is just court-packing by another name. If anything, the new proposals for disempowering “senior” justices are even more aggressive than the original version of court-packing: FDR tried to add new justices, but he never even attempted to nullify current justices.

 

Indeed.

 

Prior to becoming president, Joe Biden was emphatic in his criticism of FDR’s plan. He said that it was “a bonehead idea.” He said that “power corrupts.” He said that it was

 

a terrible, terrible mistake to make, and it put in question for an entire decade the independence of the most significant body—including the Congress in my view—the most significant body in this country, the Supreme Court of the United States of America.

 

He said that it was an “institutional power grab.” He said that it was an “effort to punish the Justices” and

 

that executive branch attempts to dominate the judiciary lead inevitably to an autocratic dominance, the very thing against which the American colonies revolted, and to prevent which the constitution was in every particular, framed.

 

Furthermore, Biden said that the Senate was right to have “stood firm” against Roosevelt in 1937. He said that the Senate’s rejection of the plan represented “an act of great courage” that served “to preserve our system’s checks and balances.”

 

And, no, Biden did not think that the situation back then was “different” from the one he is (falsely) describing now. Here’s how Biden characterized the members of FDR’s own party who rejected the plan:

 

They did not agree with the judicial activism of the Supreme Court, but they believed that Roosevelt was wrong to seek to defy established traditions as a way of stopping that activism.

 

Here’s how Biden described the motivations of those who rejected it:

 

In the end, Roosevelt’s plan failed because Democrats in Congress thought Court packing was dangerous, even if they would have supported the newly constituted Court’s rulings.

 

Biden concluded:

 

And they did so not to thwart the agenda of the president, which, in fact, many agreed with; they did it to preserve our system’s checks and balances; they did it to ensure the integrity of the system. When the founders created a different kind of legislative body in the Senate, they envisioned a bulwark against unilateral power.

 

In 2005, Biden summarized the Democrats’ rejection of FDR’s plan as “a stinging rebuke.” And so it was. Despite three-quarters of its members belonging to the same political party as FDR, Congress could not have been clearer in its repudiation:

 

In the House, Democrats lined up to denounce the president. The Chair of the House Rules Committee described the plan as “the most terrible threat to constitutional government that has arisen in the entire history of the country,” while Joseph O’Mahoney, an enthusiastic and partisan New Dealer, told a friend that it “smells of Machiavelli and Machiavelli stinks.” The Senate Judiciary Committee was even more blunt. Roosevelt’s proposal, it wrote, “violates every sacred tradition of American democracy,” corrupts “all precedents in the history of our government,” runs “in direct violation of the spirit of the American Constitution,” represents “an invasion of judicial power such as has never before been attempted in this country,” and, if enacted, would serve to “make this government one of men rather than one of law.” “It is a measure,” the report concluded, “which should be so emphatically rejected that its parallel will never again be presented to the free representatives of the free people of America.”

 

Alas, 87 years later, its parallel has once again been proposed. What a disgrace it is that the architect of that proposition has become what he once denounced.

Kamala Harris Is a Threat to America

By Rich Lowry

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

 

A week or so ago, the presidential election got less predictable — and more consequential.

 

For Kamala Harris, the newly anointed one, there is no part of the American system or compact that’s not up for grabs.

 

She favors packing the Supreme Court and vitiating or eliminating the Senate filibuster.

 

In other words, she wants to fundamentally alter two central institutions of the United States government to bring one to heel and to make the other better serve progressive ends. These aren’t 2019 positions. She endorsed Court-packing just days ago and was talking of shooting significant holes in the filibuster in 2022.

 

She revealed everything you need to know about her regard for checks on executive power during a 2020 primary debate. She laughed off the idea — defended by a Joe Biden then still demonstrating a vestigial institutionalism — that there might be constitutional limits on her ability to unilaterally impose gun-control measures.

 

It’s hard to imagine a more casual dismissal of the spirit of American constitutionalism.

 

Harris is hostile to those most American ideals of color-blindness and equality of opportunity, favoring instead the poisonous concept of “equity” that means achieving equal outcomes, as she herself has repeatedly put it. Most politicians at least would have had an internal tuning fork that would prevent them from saying this out loud. Not Kamala.

 

Of course, she’s a devotee of the 1619 Project, which trashes the history of the country she wants to lead, and a fan of its architect Nikole Hannah-Jones.

 

She has endorsed the divisive, unworkable, and unjust concept of reparations, although she’s been vague about what it would entail.

 

She brags about having ensured access to gender-reassignment surgery for California prisoners when she was the state’s attorney general, and she’s an undisguised extremist on abortion.

 

However you want to describe her role on the border in the Biden administration — czar or not — there’s no doubt that she had been opposed to enforcement and supportive of sundry benefits for illegal aliens while advocating mass amnesty.

 

If she followed through on her spending plans, which involve doubling down on Build Back Better, it’d be an enormous step toward a welfare state on a European model.

 

The initial rollout of the Harris campaign has emphasized how she was a “cop,” a tough prosecutor. This was never really true, as Rafael Mangual writes at City Journal. By 2019 and 2020, though, she was denouncing the criminal-justice system in woke terms and endorsing cuts to police spending.

 

The implicit defense of Kamala against the charge of radicalism, as she tries to shed everything she said in 2019 and 2020, is that she’s an empty-vessel opportunist who will adopt whatever positions are convenient to her at any given moment.

 

Not to worry — it was all an affectation!

 

There clearly is something to this. What’s been established, though, is that Harris doesn’t have any natural brake to her left. She may be retreating to the positions staked out by Joe Biden, who is now farther left than he has ever been before, but there’s no good reason to think that she wouldn’t snap back leftward as soon as the politics favored it again.

 

If Joe Biden couldn’t resist left-wing pressure as president, what hope is there that Kamala Harris would?

 

Even though Biden has often buckled, he still has political DNA that is naturally resistant to woke politics. He came of age in a bygone, more patriotic America; he served in a Washington where institutions mattered more; he has always had an instinct for the middle of the Democratic Party; he has a self-image of a commonsensical middle-class guy from Scranton that, even if it is manufactured or exaggerated, has had an influence on him; and he’s old.

 

None of this is true of Kamala Harris. The only significant check on her leftism is her ambition.

 

For now, that means disavowing what she was just a few years ago (and remains on many important issues). If elected, her ambition would surely switch over from trying to win some moderate swing voters to being “transformational” on progressivism’s terms.

 

In other words, she’s a clear and present danger to the American way.

The Kamala Harris Psyop

By Michael Brendan Dougherty

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

 

Kamala Harris dropped out of the 2020 Democratic primary before a single vote could be cast. She had pledged to sign the Green New Deal. She had talked up radical bail reform. She encouraged donations to a bail-reform group that released violent criminals, including sex offenders, back onto the streets. She entertained the idea of restoring voting rights even to confined terrorists. She refused to rule out packing the Supreme Court. She wanted to defund the police. She announced her pronouns.

 

She was committed to every fashionable left-wing cause in a year of left-wing hysteria. And so she was a darling of the press, which sees itself as the superintendent of the latest political trends. Voters — particularly black voters — ended up picking Joe Biden in a near-explicit repudiation of progressive mob politics and of the craven leaders, such as Harris, who were auditioning by standing in front of the law-degree-holding Molotov-cocktail brigades that year.

 

That she is being foisted on Democratic voters with just 100 days to go before the election should be seen as a form of ideological punishment and discipline meted out by elite Democrats to their voters. It doesn’t feel that way only because Biden was dying on the debate stage and in the polls. Free of the Biden burden, Democrats have cut their overwhelming feeling of relief with a few choice precursor media narratives to rebrand their mood change as a form of euphoria. We love “brat.” We love coconuts. Kamala Harris is funny. Kamala Harris is serious about governing. Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

 

And yet, for all the professed enthusiasm, the polls are roughly where they were before the debate — before Joe Biden was put in political cryogenic hibernation.

 

Perhaps the only reason this step change works is that key Democratic constituencies are already addicted to mood-altering drugs as a means of coping with reality. Obamacare turns out not to be a health-care plan but an instrument for politically controlling the Democratic Party, dosing out whatever it takes to get the patient through the present bloody surgery.

 

Kamala Harris is a new skin suit stretched over the unimpressive record of the Biden administration. The skin suit can talk, but it has to defend not only everything Kamala Harris said in 2020 but also everything Biden did and continues to preside over now — whether it’s an economy that has squeezed the last bit of hope of home-ownership out of young Millennials and Gen-Zers, or the transformation of the Democratic coalition into a safe encampment for the Hamas-kids of Columbia University, or a mainly unconstitutional Court-packing scheme.

 

Kamala Harris is the final test for liberal groupthink. Her sudden Taylor Swift–level stardom is as faked as intelligence-agency assessments of Hunter Biden’s laptop. If the Kamala Harris psyop proves a success this November, prepare for even wilder social-programming experiments in the future.

Here Come the Flip-Flops

National Review Online

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

 

Vice President Kamala Harris managed to become the presumptive Democratic nominee in record time after President Biden was forced to drop out of the race, and now, with breathless speed, she is dramatically reversing positions that she once claimed were strongly held when she last ran for president. Whether these new positions last longer than the old ones is something voters won’t know until after the election.

 

When Harris entered the Senate in 2017, it was the heyday of anti-Trump resistance on the left. With the aging socialist Senator Bernie Sanders having given eventual loser Hillary Clinton a run for her money in the prior year’s primaries, there was a growing belief that the next Democratic nominee would have to appeal to his movement. As a freshman senator with presidential aspirations and with a prosecutor image that alienated some on the left, Harris wasn’t going to miss a beat. In a short period of time, she racked up a voting record that ranked her as the most progressive U.S. senator.

 

Harris was one of 16 co-sponsors of Sanders’s socialized health-care plan branded as “Medicare for All,” which would have cost $34 trillion over a decade, according to the left-wing Urban Institute. It would also have necessitated kicking about 180 million people off their private insurance plans. She also signed on to the Senate version of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s radical Green New Deal.

 

In 2019, as the Democratic primaries took off, there was fierce competition to the left of Joe Biden. Harris dug into her support for banning private insurance before (unconvincingly) trying to take it back. She called for banning fracking and offshore drilling. She said those who crossed the border illegally shouldn’t be treated as criminals and called for getting rid of ICE and starting from scratch. She advocated banning AR-15s and confiscating them (under the euphemism “mandatory buybacks”).

 

What were once seen as necessary stances to woo a rabid progressive base in the 2020 primaries are now general-election liabilities. And so, for about 100 more days, Harris wants to be unburdened by what has been.

 

The New York Times reports, “In addition to changing her position on fracking, campaign officials said she now backed the Biden administration’s budget requests for increased funding for border enforcement; no longer supported a single-payer health insurance program; and echoed Mr. Biden’s call for banning assault weapons but not a requirement to sell them to the federal government.” This is an implicit acknowledgement that Biden’s unpopular presidency is still less politically radioactive than Harris’s even more left-wing 2019 platform.

 

There are two advantages Harris has that could help her pull off these extraordinary flip-flops. One is that she was able to essentially secure the Democratic nomination by acclamation, and so she will get a free pass from within her party. Had she been in a protracted primary fight, she would have to weigh the risk of blowback against any attempts to move to the center. The second issue is that the press has shown itself to be embarrassingly in the tank for Harris, and it is unlikely she will be subject to as much scrutiny for the reversals as a standard candidate.

 

On the other hand, there are so many video clips of her stating her prior stances in such an unequivocal way (for instance, “There’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking”) that her prior positions will be easy to cut into ads and plaster all over the airwaves — as Donald Trump and Republicans are already doing. Furthermore, it will be harder for her to pose as moderate when she is still taking some of the extreme positions she staked out in 2019, such as her endorsement of Court-packing just this week (by way of imposing term limits that would disproportionately apply to conservative justices).

 

Ultimately, Harris is the most radically Left major-party nominee in American history, and it is going to be incredibly difficult to hide that.

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Solzhenitsyn Warned Us

By Gary Saul Morson

Sunday, July 28, 2024

 

Western intellectuals expected that novelist Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, once safely in the West after his expulsion from the Soviet Union in 1974, would enthusiastically endorse its way of life and intellectual consensus. Nothing of the sort happened. Instead of recognizing how much he had missed when cut off from New York, Washington, and Cambridge, Massachusetts, this ex-Soviet dissident not only refused to accept superior American ideas but even presumed to instruct us. Harvard was shocked at the speech he gave there in 1978, while the New York Times cautioned: “We fear that Mr. Solzhenitsyn does the world no favor by calling for a holy war.”

 

For his part, Solzhenitsyn could hardly believe that Westerners would not want to hear all he had learned journeying through the depths of totalitarian hell. “Even in soporific Canada, which always lagged behind, a leading television commentator lectured me that I presumed to judge the experience of the world from the viewpoint of my limited Soviet and prison camp experience,” Solzhenitsyn recalled. “Indeed, how true! Life and death, imprisonment and hunger, the cultivation of the soul despite the captivity of the body: how very limited this is compared to the bright world of political parties, yesterday’s numbers on the stock exchange, amusements without end, and exotic foreign travel!”

 

The West “turned out to be not what we [dissidents] had hoped and expected; it was not living by the ‘right’ values nor was it headed in the ‘right’ direction.” America was no longer the land of the free but of the licentious. The totalitarianism from which Solzhenitsyn had escaped loomed as the West’s likely future. Having written a series of novels about how Russia succumbed to Communism, Solzhenitsyn smelled the same social and intellectual rot among us. He thought it his duty to warn us, but nobody listened. Today, his warnings seem prescient. We have continued to follow the path to disaster he mapped.

 

***

 

We Have Ceased to See the Purpose collects the most important speeches Solzhenitsyn delivered between 1972 and 1997.1 Inspired by various occasions—Solzhenitsyn’s winning the Nobel Prize, arriving in the West, and delivering that Harvard University commencement address, among others—these speeches convey a single message: Western civilization has lost its bearings because it has embraced a false and shallow understanding of life. The result is the accelerating decay of the West’s spiritual foundations. The very fact that the word “spiritual” sounded suspiciously outdated to so many intellectuals at the time shows how far the decay had already progressed. Sooner or later, Solzhenitsyn warned, Western civilization as we know it would collapse.

 

Solzhenitsyn would not have been surprised that, three decades after the collapse of the USSR, American intellectuals again find Marxist and quasi-Marxist doctrines attractive. Young people embrace “democratic socialism,” a phrase that Solzhenitsyn calls “about as meaningful as talking about ‘ice-cold heat.’”

 

Today we can ask: Why do so many cheer, or at least not object, when they witness mobs embracing the bloodthirsty and sadistic Hamas? Perhaps for the same reasons that young, pre-revolutionary Russians once celebrated terrorists who murdered innocent citizens? Having studied his country’s history, Solzhenitsyn foresaw the process that would lead to today’s chants of “globalize the intifada” and “any means necessary.” He repeatedly cautioned that Russia’s past may be America’s future.

 

How can it be, Solzhenitsyn asked, that so many Russians found the strength to “rise up and free themselves…while those [in the West] who soar unhindered over the peaks of freedom suddenly lose the taste for it, lose the will to defend it, and fatefully, almost [seem] to crave slavery?” Why do crudeness of thought and the repetition of ill-understood slogans pass for sophistication? “I couldn’t have imagined to what extreme degree the West desires to blind itself,” Solzhenitsyn told a London audience in 1976.

 

Those who have reflected on Soviet experience, Solzhenitsyn advised, readily discern “telltale signs by which history gives warning to a threatened or perishing society.” Referring to the electrical blackout that struck New York in 1977, he identified one such warning: “The center of your democracy and your culture is left without electrical power for a few hours only, and all of a sudden American citizens start looting and creating havoc. The smooth surface film must be very thin, then, the social system quite unstable and unhealthy.” What would he say if he had seen the Antifa riots following the murder of George Floyd or the cowardly responses to today’s university encampments?

 

Solzhenitsyn discovered the root cause of the West’s decline in its assumption, shared by almost everyone with any influence, that life’s purpose is individual happiness, from which it follows that freedom and democratic political institutions exist to make that goal easier to attain. And so elections usually turn on the growth of an already abundant economy. Could there be a view of life less worthy of human dignity? America’s Founders acknowledged a higher power, but now the most “advanced” people have succumbed to “the calamity of an autonomous, irreligious, humanistic consciousness. It has made man the measure of all things on earth—imperfect man, who is never free of pride, self-interest, envy, vanity, and dozens of other defects.”

 

Acknowledging nothing higher than themselves, people overlook the evil in human nature. Original sin, what’s that? Sophisticates laugh at phrases such as “the Evil Empire” or “the Axis of Evil” because “it has become embarrassing to appeal to age-old values.” And so “the concepts of Good and Evil have been ridiculed for several centuries…. They’ve been replaced by political or class categorizations.” Crime and other ills supposedly result from readily amendable social arrangements and will inevitably give way to progress.

 

Like the Soviets, Westerners speak of being “on the right side of history,” as if progress were guaranteed and what comes later will be necessarily better. How readily such thinking seduced early-20th-century Russian (and Weimar German) intellectuals! And how vulnerable it leaves us to underestimating the evil that human beings can commit! “We have placed too much hope in politics and social reforms only to find out that we are being deprived of our most precious possession: our spiritual life” and our moral sense. People cannot even understand evil unless they recognize that it “resides in each individual heart before it enters a political system.”

 

“As for Progress,” Solzhenitsyn replied to self-styled progressives, “there can only be one true kind: the sum total of the spiritual progresses of individual persons, the degree of self-perfection in the course of their lives.” For the hedonist, death looms as the terrible cessation of pleasures, but for spiritual people it is proof that, as Pierre, the hero of Tolstoy’s War and Peace, enthuses as he points to the sky: “We must live, we must love, and we must believe not only that we live today on the scrap of earth, but that we have lived and shall live forever, there, in the Whole.” Or as Solzhenitsyn argued in his Harvard commencement address: “If as claimed by humanism, man were born only to be happy, he would not be born to die. Since his body is doomed to death, his task on earth evidently must be more spiritual: not a total engrossment in everyday life, not a search for the best way to obtain material goods. . . . It has to be the fulfillment of a permanent, earnest duty so that one’s life’s journey may become above all an experience of moral growth: to leave life a better human being than one started it.”

 

People can accomplish such moral growth not by self-indulgence but by its opposite, self-restraint or, as Solzhenitsyn also called it, “self-limitation.” Without that, they remain mired in the world of things and unable to see beyond the present moment. Après moi le déluge

 

“If we don’t learn to limit firmly our desires and demands, to subordinate our interests to moral criteria,” Solzhenitsyn insisted, “we, mankind, will simply be torn apart as the worst aspects of human nature bare their teeth.” Voicing the overriding lesson of the Russian literary tradition, Solzhenitsyn told Westerners: “if personality is not directed at values higher than the self, then it becomes inevitably invested with corruption and decay…. We can only experience true spiritual satisfaction not in seizing but in refusing to seize: in other words, in self-limitation.”

 

The spiritual malaise of hedonism fatally weakens a society by leaving it unable to defend itself. “The most striking feature that an outside observer discerns in the West today,” Solzhenitsyn asserted in the Harvard address, is “a decline in courage,” which “is particularly noticeable in the ruling and intellectual elites,” presumably including his Harvard audience. Amid an abundance of material goods, “why and for the sake of what should one risk one’s precious life in defense of the common good, and particularly in the nebulous case when the security of one’s nation must be defended in an as-yet distant land?” People naturally say, “Let someone else risk his life.” European powers “bargain to see who can spend least on defense so that more remains for a prosperous life.” (Thirty years later, few European countries not on the Russian border meet the agreed-upon defense expenditure of 2 percent of GDP.) America bases its security primarily on its formidable arsenal, Solzhenitsyn noted, but weapons are never enough without “stout hearts and steadfast men.”

 

One step beyond unwillingness to defend one’s country is actual hatred of it. I thought of Solzhenitsyn’s warnings when I learned of campus mobs this year shouting “Death to America!” For Solzhenitsyn, that is where the cult of individual happiness, sooner or later, is bound to lead. Facing the slightest frustration, forced to endure a modicum of adversity, or exposed to a world of contingency and misfortune, those educated to regard individual good fortune as their due seek someone to blame. They readily embrace any fashionable ideology that divides the world into oppressed and oppressors, the innocent good people and the implacably evil. But as Solzhenitsyn famously observed in The Gulag Archipelago, the line between good and evil runs not between groups but “through every human heart.”

 

Why worry about external enemies when the real threat supposedly comes from another group or party at home? “Or why restrain oneself from burning hatred,” Solzhenitsyn asked, “whatever its basis—race, class, or manic ideology?” As in the French and Russian Revolutions, such anger feeds on itself. “Atheist teachers are rearing a younger generation in a spirit of hatred toward their own society.” From the perspective of 2024, it is easy to verify Solzhenitsyn’s prediction that “the flames of hatred” against one another are bound to intensify.

 

Society tears itself apart. Turning all questions into a matter of absolute rights makes amicable compromise impossible, and it is the most privileged people, shielded from life’s inevitable disappointments, who are the most inclined to such thinking. Those raised in gated communities and preparing for lucrative professions are the first to express resentment and complain they feel “unsafe.” As Solzhenitsyn anticipated, “the broader the personal freedoms, the higher the level of social well-being or even affluence—the more vehement, paradoxically, this blind hatred” of America.

 

The specter—or rather, the zombie—of Marxism has returned because it divides the world into the damned and the saved. They need not be “the bourgeoisie” and “the proletariat” but can be any pair that conveniently presents itself. To the amazement of those who only recently escaped such thinking, “what one people has already endured, appraised, and rejected suddenly emerges among another people as the very latest word.”

 

Solzhenitsyn asked: Why does one country blindly embrace another’s catastrophic mistakes? Why can’t those mistakes become a cautionary lesson? “This inability to understand someone else’s faraway grief,” he pleads, “threatens to bring on imminent and violent extinction.”

 

***

 

Surely there must be some way “to overcome man’s perverse habit of learning only from his own experience, so that the experience of others often passes him by without profit”! And in fact, there is: art, and especially literature.

 

Great literature has the power, he explained in his Nobel Prize lecture, to “impress upon an obstinate human being someone else’s far-off sorrows or joys” and to “give him an insight into magnitudes of events and into delusions that he’s never himself experienced.” He went on: “Making up for man’s scant time on earth, art transmits from one person to another the entire accumulated burden of another’s life experience … and allows us to assimilate it as our own.” Nothing else possesses literature’s “miraculous power” to overcome the barriers of language, custom, and social structure and thereby communicate “the experience of an entire nation to another nation that hasn’t undergone such a difficult, decades-long collective experience.” Literature “could save an entire nation from a redundant” and self-destructive course.

 

Solzhenitsyn’s audience must have wondered: But surely novelists can err, mislead, or even lie like everyone else! Isn’t that what Soviet socialist realist, “Party-minded” writers actually did? Here it is helpful to remember that in the Russian tradition not everything called a novel or poem qualifies as “literature.” Writing that lies or lacks compassion for those who suffer cannot belong to the canon. As Dmitri Likhachev, the foremost scholar of medieval Russian literature, explained:

 

Literature is the conscience of a society, its soul. The honor and merit of a writer consists in defending truth and the right to that truth under the most unfavorable circumstances…. Can you really consider literature literature, or a writer a writer if they side-step the truth, if they silence or try to falsify it? Literature which does not evoke a pang of conscience is already a lie. And to lie in literature, you will agree, is the worst kind of lying.

 

When the novelist Mikhail Sholokhov, also a Nobel Prize winner, praised the Soviet government’s imprisonment of dissident writers Andrei Sinyavsky and Yuli Daniel, the editor and poet Aleksandr Tvardovsky, joined by novelist Lydia Chukovskaia and others, expelled him from “Russian literature.” “Sholokhov is now a former writer,” Tvardovsky asserted.

 

The most that ordinary people can do when a totalitarian regime blankets them with lies, Solzhenitsyn explained, is not to participate: “Let that come into the world—only not through me.” But writers can do more: “It is within their power … to defeat the lie! …The lie can prevail against much in the world, but never against art.”

 

Why exactly can a genuine novel not lie? What prompts Solzhenitsyn to deem “the persuasiveness of a true work of art irrefutable” and declare that “it prevails even over a resisting heart”? The answer is that a novel tests ideas as political speeches, journalistic articles, and philosophical systems do not.

 

If an author implausibly makes a character assert or do something just because a political position requires it, readers will sense the falsity. They will recognize that the assertion comes from the author’s prefabricated ideology and does not arise from the character’s experience. It seems fake, forced, out of character. Analogous tests pertain to other artistic forms, which display their own kinds of proof and disproof. That is why “a true work of art carries its verification within itself: artificial or forced concepts do not survive their trial by image; both concept and image crumble, and turn out feeble, pale, convincing no one.”

 

Genuine works of art based on truth “attract us to themselves powerfully, and no one ever—even centuries later—will step forth to refute them.” They become classics. When Dostoevsky’s famously stated that “beauty will save the world,” he meant that even if regimes crush truth and goodness, “the intricate, unpredictable, and unlooked-for shoots of Beauty will force their way through… therefore fulfilling the task of all three.”

 

This view of art as something sacred made Solzhenitsyn highly impatient with the “falsely understood avant-gardism” of certain kinds of modernism and postmodernism. As he explains in his speech “Playing Upon the Strings of Emptiness,” delivered in New York in 1993, cleverness alone ultimately proves trivial and, at times, destructive. “Before erupting on the streets of Petrograd, this cataclysmic [Russian] revolution had erupted on the pages of the artistic and literary journals of Bohemian circles. It is there we first heard…[of] the sweeping away of all ethical codes and religions.” Even the most talented “futurists,” ensnared by a false revolutionism, demanded the destruction of “the Racines, Murillos, and Raphaels, ‘so that bullets would bounce off museum walls’” while calling for the Russian literary classics to be “‘thrown overboard from the ship of modernity’.”

 

Decades later, some Russian writers of the Brezhnev era embraced postmodernist relativism: “Yes, they say, Communist dogma was a great lie—but then again, absolute truths don’t exist anyhow, and it’s hardly worthwhile trying to find them.” In this way, the masterpieces of Russian fiction became the object of condescending scorn.

 

And so, in one sweeping gesture of alienated vexation, classical Russian literature—which never disdained reality but sought the truth—is dismissed as next to worthless. Denigrating the past is deemed to be the key to progress. And so today it’s once again fashionable in our country to ridicule, debunk, and throw overboard the great Russian literature, steeped as it is in love and compassion.

 

Even more than Russia, Solzhenitsyn said, the West has embraced this shallow relativism. The most advanced theories teach that “there is no God, there is no truth, the universe is chaotic, all is relative, ‘the world as a text.’” Postmodern literature purports to “play,” but this is “not the Mozartian playfulness of a universe overflowing with joy—but a forced playing upon the strings of emptiness.”

 

In literature as in life, “nothing can be fashioned on a neglect of higher meanings.” No doubt about it, Solzhenitsyn maintained, the world is going through a profound and accelerating spiritual crisis, and its only hope—great literature—is betraying its mission. In a rare moment of hopefulness, Solzhenitsyn found it “hard to believe that we’ll allow this to occur.” He said, “Even in Russia, so terribly ill right now—we wait and hope that, after the coma and period of silence, we shall feel the reawakening of Russian literature, and witness the subsequent arrival of fresh new forces” that will spiritually uplift the world. But only if people return to “higher meaning.”

 

If Solzhenitsyn’s warnings about their society’s collapse irritated Westerners, his exalted view of literature struck them as too naive to take seriously. How many Americans regard novels as supremely important, let alone redemptive? Today, as literature departments “decolonize” the curriculum, fewer and fewer become acquainted with the greatest works at all.

 

More and more, students view literature as what they teach—or rather, used to teach—in required courses. Literature no longer has sufficient prestige to attract the best minds, and so the process of decline accelerates. Who reads contemporary poetry, and what timeless American novels have appeared in the past half century?

 

What’s more, young people increasingly lack the patience that great literature demands. They surf, they scan, they tweet. So how likely is it that, as Solzhenitsyn hoped, literature would transmit the experience needed to avoid a disastrous future?

 

When a country disparages the classics, it invites what Russians experienced as a “seventy-year long ice age.” People imprison themselves in the present moment and, in the name of freedom, enslave themselves to a single way of seeing the world. Wisdom earned by very different experiences seems increasingly irrelevant.

 

At the end of The Gulag Archipelago, Solzhenitsyn directly addressed those elites most resistant to his warning:

 

All you freedom-loving “left-wing” thinkers in the West! You left laborites! You progressive American, German, and French students! As far as you are concerned, none of this amounts to much. As far as you are concerned, this whole book of mine is a waste of effort. You may suddenly understand it someday—but only when you yourselves hear “hands behind your backs there!” and step ashore on our Archipelago.

 


 

1 We Have Ceased to See the Purpose: Essential Speeches of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, ed. Ignat Solzhenitsyn (Notre Dame, Indiana: Notre Dame University Press, 2024).

The Scapegoat

By Nick Catoggio

Monday, July 29, 2024

 

Base voters love a troll.

 

Base voters aren’t coldly rational about winning elections.

 

Those two facts are related, needless to say. If you immerse yourself in media that insists your world view is correct in all particulars and that victory is a simple matter of “fighting” harder than the other side, your candidate preference will trend toward the most combative trolls in your party. Never mind what swing voters who actually decide elections might think of them.

 

That phenomenon explains the last nine years in Republican politics. But Democrats aren’t above convincing themselves that pugnacious partisans who tickle their political erogenous zones make for good nominees.

 

A groundswell has formed online over the last few days for Kamala Harris to choose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. It’s idiotic. Harris is already comfortably ahead in Walz’s home state and Walz carries all sorts of left-wing ideological baggage that the other finalists on her shortlist lack.

 

He’d be a defensible pick for a presidential nominee who’s struggling to build grassroots enthusiasm for her campaign, but Harris doesn’t want for Democratic enthusiasm. To the contrary.

 

Between Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, she has three strong centrist alternatives who could plausibly deliver a closely contested swing state that might tip the election. There’s no reason to pass all of them over for a flawed candidate like Walz—except one.

 

He’s good on television. He’s a talented troll, and Democratic base voters love a troll. And if they love him, surely undecided voters will love him too, no?

 

Harris almost certainly won’t choose Walz as her VP; she needs to move toward the center. But we do have a recent example of a nominee passing over candidates with crossover appeal and choosing a running mate who appeals chiefly to his party’s base instead.

 

No doubt Donald Trump expected some blowback from the RINOs and communists of the American center when he chose populist panderer J.D. Vance over Doug Burgum and Marco Rubio. But he was on a glide path to reelection. At the time, he could at least have rested assured that the Republican base would be thrilled with his selection.

 

Two weeks and one Democratic switcheroo later, Trump’s no longer on a glide path—and the base has not thrilled to his selection. Hardcore nationalists like Tucker Carlson might love him, but Vance’s polling is feeble. Numerous Fox News anchors have (politely) spoken disapprovingly of his old “childless cat lady” remarks. Ben Shapiro speculated that if Trump had a do-over on his selection, he would have chosen differently.

 

“He was the worst choice of all the options. It was so bad I didn’t even think it was possible,” one House Republican told The Hill of Vance last week. “The prevailing sentiment is if Trump loses, [it’s] because of this pick,” said another. Vance’s critics are so eager to ridicule him that they’ve managed to elevate a coarse joke made about him into a claim repeated so widely that some news outlets have felt obliged to debunk it (while further amplifying it in so doing, of course). 

 

It all feels a bit … excessive.

 

As rough as Vance’s start has been, he’s young, very smart, has a killer biography, and can articulate the populist vision for America more thoughtfully than his running mate. He’s not a crazy pick, whether or not you agree that Trump had better options.

 

So why has he become a whipping boy for so many so soon?

 

Everyone’s a suspect.

 

Vance’s first two weeks as a national figure have the feeling of a murder mystery in which a dozen different suspects each turn out to have their own motive for wanting the deceased dead.

 

For the professional Republican establishment, hating Vance doesn’t require disdaining his brand of nationalist politics—although many of them do. It’s reason enough to hate him that he adds nothing to the ticket that Trump himself doesn’t already supply. You’ll search in vain for a voter, even in Vance’s home region of the Rust Belt, who was wavering on whether to roll the dice on another MAGA presidency until a far less charismatic nationalist was added to the ticket.

 

Burgum or Rubio could have reassured wary Reagan conservatives and college-educated suburbanites that Trump wouldn’t wander too far into authoritarian lunacy in a second term. With Vance, all bets are off.

 

For certain factions of the new Republican coalition, hating Vance is a matter of hating the policies championed by other factions in that coalition. Trump’s movement is a bizarre alliance of nationalist ideologues, lukewarm Reaganite dead-enders, devout Christians, and populist “bros” who despise left-wing pieties, all led by a dissolute authoritarian whom each faction believes secretly shares its own priorities. 

 

Vance doesn’t get that same benefit of the doubt so some of those factions will chafe at his own nationalist agenda. On Friday, for instance, “Barstool conservative” Dave Portnoy was incensed by an old clip of Vance calling for parents to pay less in taxes. “You want me to pay more taxes to take care of other people’s kids?” he tweeted, incredulous. “We sure this dude is a Republican? Sounds like a moron. If you can’t afford a big family, don’t have a ton of kids.”

 

Social conservatives didn’t care for Portnoy’s complaint and let him know it, giving us a glimpse of how fragile the Trump coalition might be once Trump himself isn’t around to hold it together.

 

For anti-Trumpers of all stripes, from the left to Dispatch conservatives, hating Vance isn’t just a matter of scrambling to define an opponent unfavorably before he can define himself; it’s a matter of wanting an unusually cynical traitor to the constitutional order to suffer for his treachery. Of all the examples of promising young right-wingers embracing authoritarianism to get ahead in politics—and there are many—none has been more disappointing than the guy who called Trump “cultural heroin” and then became one of the biggest dealers in America. Going from critic to running mate in eight years is like joining the DEA and somehow ending up second in command of the Sinaloa cartel less than a decade later.

 

“J.D. Vance is the first politician whose social media posts from his younger days are squeaky clean while his posts during his time in office cause all the problems,” Bill Scher trenchantly observed. Every failure Vance endures during this campaign will be exquisite to those who refused to become pushers like him. The only thing better than Trump losing in November would be Trump losing and blaming the defeat on J.D., the latest reminder that “The Snake” is a better metaphor for Republican politics than it is for illegal immigration.

 

For Trumpy populists, meanwhile, hating Vance might be a straightforward case of the man proving unequal to the hype.

 

“Hate” is too strong a word for this group, obviously. The average MAGA voter likes Vance just fine, if for no other reason than that their hero liked him enough to choose him as his No. 2. But most Trump voters aren’t nationalist ideologues the way Tucker and Vance are. When Trump ordered the airstrike that killed Iran’s Qassem Soleimani, for instance, Carlson raged against it on air—and 86 percent of Republicans approved.

 

Most populists relish Trump’s (and Tucker’s) charisma and seething contempt for their left-wing cultural enemies. Vance gives them none of that. He’s a soft-spoken Ivy League egghead who speaks demagogue as a second language, and it shows. In a party that was as serious about populism on the economic merits as commentators like Ross Douthat or Michael Brendan Dougherty, Vance would be a star. In a party like Trump’s, one gets the sense that Republican voters are watching him quizzically, thinking, “This is the guy who’s going to fill Trump’s shoes in 2028?”

 

It’d be like replacing pro wrestling with Firing Line.

 

In the end, Vance is a man without allies except for the narrow slice of the New Right that’s tried to make ideological lemonade out of the lemony grievances Trump has handed them. That niche was influential enough in Trump’s inner circle to land him on the ticket, but it’s way too small to provide meaningful reinforcements when he’s besieged by political enemies on all sides. “Vance has barely been in politics, and has spent much of that time fighting with/dissenting from Republicans,” National Review’s Dan McLaughlin pointed out on Friday. “He needs friends he never cared to make and a brand fighting the left he never cared to build.”

 

Base voters love a troll, but J.D. Vance hasn’t been nearly enough of a troll in his short career to earn that love. Trump is left with a running mate whom the right merely likes and whom the rest of the political world despises.

 

There’s another reason Vance has been flogged so ruthlessly since his nomination, though. Unlike Trump, he’s susceptible to blame. He’s a perfect scapegoat.

 

A target of opportunity.

 

A smart conservative friend shared his own theory this weekend of why Vance is taking such an early beating. “It’s because all the normal rules apply to J.D. and none of them apply to Trump,” he said. “So J.D. can be less crazy than Trump and get roasted.”

 

However much you dislike Vance, it’s objectively true that he’s less crazy than Trump. A lot less.

 

Nothing J.D. Vance has ever said, including the “childless cat lady” stuff, is as weird as Trump celebrating Laura Loomer from the podium at one of his events or grumbling to relatives about why we keep the disabled alive or mocking news reports that his brush with death changed him by insisting he’s gotten “worse.”

 

Routinely since 2015, Trump’s said things that would end any other politician’s viability as a national candidate—but which, through sheer accumulation, have become mundane. It’s understating matters considerably to call him “weird,” as Democrats have lately taken to doing. But they’ve run out of other ideas. Every method they’ve used to try to awaken the public to his unfitness has failed miserably, enough so that he remains a favorite to recapture the presidency this November despite the burst of Kamala-mentum among Democrats.

 

The normal rules of politics don’t apply to him. He is weird—and then some—but, more than that, he’s Trump. And Trump is Trump. He’s been thoroughly normalized. Opinions about him are diamond-hard and won’t be altered by calling voters’ attention to his weirdness.

 

He’s also a blowhard who speaks vaguely about policy, which leaves voters forever uncertain about how seriously they should take him. That too would be held against most other politicians, but here again, as others have noted, the normal rules don’t apply to Trump. Because he’s so fickle and inarticulate, voters who like his economic record or share his attitudes toward the left can choose to believe or not believe anything he says, as their preferences require. Which explains how he’s managed to keep both evangelicals and “Barstool conservatives” happy-ish in the same coalition.

 

Vance has none of those advantages. As a young, little-known politician, he’s the softest of soft targets for his critics to define. And as an ideologue who’s committed to a nationalist agenda in a way Trump isn’t, his pronouncements about “childless cat ladies” and not caring about Ukraine can’t be dismissed as idle chatter that he doesn’t really mean. The normal rules of politics, in which candidates are taken seriously and literally, apply to him.

 

And Trump’s critics are elated about it. For the first time since 2015, they can wound Trump directly by attacking an associate who embodies the nationalist sentiments his leadership has cultivated on the right. Vance has become a scapegoat for them, a target of opportunity for those who detest Trump and Trumpism but who, until now, haven’t been able to damage either.

 

He’s the opposite of Mike Pence circa 2016. Pence was a fig leaf of normalcy for an abnormal nominee, the picture of a Reaganite Christian conservative of the sort who’d been leading the Republican Party for 30-plus years. Vance, the avatar of the nationalist New Right, is a fig leaf of abnormalcy by comparison. If Trump’s critics can’t convince voters that Trump is weird, they can probably convince them that Vance, his nationalist disciple and heir apparent, is. 

 

That’s a significant liability potentially for a nominee who’s twice as old as his running mate. America elected a 78-year-old three years ago and it didn’t work out great; the Joe Biden experience will lead swing voters to wonder if a vote for Trump is actually a vote for a weird 39-year-old president instead.

 

It may be that Vance didn’t realize that the rules for Trump were different from the rules for him and assumed that his comments about “childless cat ladies” and our “late republican period” would be dismissed as readily as Trump’s outrageous comments are. Or maybe he and the Trump campaign assumed it wouldn’t matter: Biden was such a weak opponent, they may have believed, that no amount of right-wing weirdness from Trump’s running mate was going to lead swing voters to gamble on reelecting the president.

 

With Harris now atop the ticket and the race tightening overnight, all of that is out the window and all interested parties suddenly have an incentive to fire at Vance. Democrats think they can finally put swing voters off of Trumpism by focusing on the VP nominee’s eccentricities; conservatives think they can discredit nationalism as a governing ideology for the GOP if Vance takes the blame for an eventual defeat; Republicans think they can distract from Trump’s obvious weaknesses as a nominee by exaggerating the extent to which Vance is supposedly weighing him down.

 

But it’s not J.D.’s fault that this race is neck and neck despite the new Democratic nominee having served at the right hand of the most unpopular president in the history of modern polling. And it’s not J.D.’s fault that Trump didn’t select his running mate with an eye to facing Harris instead of Biden this fall after Trump said repeatedly throughout the campaign that he didn’t believe Biden would last as nominee.

 

It’s the fault of Republican primary voters who stupidly chose to nominate Trump again instead of a candidate with better judgment and fewer liabilities. Democrats had the good sense to force a last-second switcheroo on their ticket when they realized their chances of winning would improve significantly by doing so. Republicans would have profited from making the same sort of switch—not at the bottom of the ticket with Vance, but at the top.

 

Base voters love a troll, though.

 

So spare a thought for J.D., an unsympathetic figure for whom I can’t help feeling a twinge of sympathy. The campaign clearly didn’t vet him, it’s done him a terrible disservice by not promoting his irresistible Horatio Alger biographical story more aggressively, and ultimately it’s going to treat him as a fall guy if Trump once again scares Americans into preferring a lackluster Democrat on Election Day. I’m almost inclined to say that Vance doesn’t deserve it. Almost.

Hard Truths for the Trump Camp

By Jim Geraghty

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

 

The most recent New York Times/Siena poll found that 87 percent of registered voters approved of President Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 race, and only 9 percent disapproved.

 

You’ll notice that the right-of-center “poll truthers” didn’t come out to question that one. Nobody’s arguing that the poll had too many landline and not enough cellphone users, or that the sample had too many old people or too many young people or wasn’t correctly balanced in terms of race, sex, or ideology.

 

No one’s questioning that poll result because it makes sense based on what we know. Joe Biden is really old; almost all Republicans were happy to see the old man bow out, and almost all Democrats were happy not to be stuck with him as their nominee anymore.

 

When it comes to polling, a lot of “unskewing” commentary amounts to “I don’t like that poll result; therefore, I will insist that it is illegitimate.”

 

That same Times/Siena poll found Donald Trump just barely ahead of Kamala Harris nationally, 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters and 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters.

 

A whole bunch of recent polling is finding results in the same ballpark — mostly Trump ahead by one to three percentage points, and every once in a while, Harris ahead by one or two percentage points. It’s a close race. Harris is performing considerably better than Biden was, but you wouldn’t want to bet your mortgage payment on her winning. Nor would you want to bet your mortgage payment on Trump’s winning, given his narrow and shrinking lead.

 

(No, we don’t select our president based on a national popular vote, but recent history tells us that, if a Republican wins the popular vote, he’s just about assured to get considerably more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by two percentage points and finished with just 227 electoral votes. So, if you’re Harris, you really want to be ahead by more than two percentage points.)

 

Can the polls be wrong and consistently overestimate Democratic support while consistently underestimating Republican support? Yes — Susan Collins’s 2020 Senate race in Maine is probably the most vivid example of this. But if you’re part of a Republican campaign, you wouldn’t want to count on performing ten or more percentage points better than your final polling numbers.

 

One of the quiet stories of this past insane four weeks or so is what the polls showed after Joe Biden had just about the worst month possible. He botched the debate and looked like a decrepit, forgetful, mumbling geriatric in his subsequent appearances; Trump survived being shot in an assassination attempt and looked fearless and defiant doing it; the Republicans enjoyed a successful national convention; the initial rollout of J. D. Vance as Trump’s running mate went just fine; and the first 20 minutes of Trump’s acceptance speech may well have been the apex of his campaign. (Alas, Trump talked for another hour and ten minutes.)

 

And yet, when the RealClearPolitics average for the Trump vs. Biden matchup ended July 21, Trump was ahead 47.9 percent to 44.8 percent in a two-way race. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West thrown in, Trump was ahead of Biden 43.4 percent to 39.2 percent.

 

In other words, after Biden had been metaphorically dragged across concrete for a month, and just about everything had gone right for the Republican nominee, Trump led by three to four points. That’s a 3.6 roentgens of a result — “not great, not terrible.”

 

What this past month has taught us is that Donald Trump has a hard ceiling.

 

There are a lot of Americans who love Trump, and a lot of Americans who hate Trump, and a small sliver in the middle who don’t particularly like him but who are at least theoretically open to voting for him. But even in the near-best-case scenario of 2016, Trump won 49 percent of the vote in Florida, 47.5 percent of the vote in Michigan, 49.8 percent of the vote in North Carolina, 48.8 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, and 47.2 percent of the vote in Wisconsin.

 

Trump really needs the non-Trump vote split in a fashion that keeps Kamala Harris’s 40-some percent below his 40-some percent.

 

A lot of Trump fans walk around believing that a large majority of the country loves their man as passionately and intensely as they do — and it’s just not true. On a really good day for Trump, about 47 or 48 percent of poll respondents will say they feel favorably toward Trump. On the bad days, it’s in the mid 30s. Just about every day, well over 50 percent of poll respondents say they feel unfavorably toward him.

 

It’s not that Harris is, to use one of my favorite phrases, a whirling dervish of raw political charisma. But an enthusiastic Democratic party and a full-throated cheerleading effort from the mainstream media are a potent combination.

 

Trump has a much smaller margin of error running against Harris than against Biden. Name-calling, winging it, and riffing the way he does at his rallies probably isn’t going to get it done.

 

J. D. Vance’s Political Anti-Charisma

 

J. D. Vance, in that 2021 interview with Charlie Kirk:

 

We need to reward the things that we think are good and punish the things that we think are bad. So, you talk about tax policy, let’s tax the things that are bad and not tax the things that are good. If you are making $100,000, $400,000 a year and you’ve got three kids, you should pay a different, lower tax rate than if you are making the same amount of money and you don’t have any kids. It’s that simple.

 

The liberal super PAC American Bridge took that clip and declared it “unreal.”

 

ABC News ran the headline, “Vance argued for higher tax rate on childless Americans in 2021 interview.” Newsweek warned, “JD Vance Wanted Higher Taxes for Childless People, Video Shows.” Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy fumed, “This is . . . idiotic. You want me to pay more taxes to take care of other people’s kids? We sure this dude is a Republican? Sounds like a moron. If you can’t afford a big family don’t have a ton of kids.”

 

What all of this demonstrates is that a lot of people jumping into the debate about tax policy have no idea what is in the current tax code — not some obscure fine-print provision but a tax credit claimed by roughly 40 million American families each year.

 

It’s called the Child Tax Credit, and it didn’t just sneak up on us. The CTC was introduced by John Kasich, then a Republican representative from Ohio, and passed into law as part of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, which was signed by Democratic president Bill Clinton. The bill passed the House with 226 Republican votes and 27 Democratic votes. It passed the Senate with 80 votes.

 

For each dependent claimed, a tax filer gets up to a $2,000 credit — with up to $1,400 of that total being refundable, meaning that it gets paid out even if the person filing doesn’t owe any taxes.

 

J. D. Vance has the remarkable ability to take a long-standing part of the tax code that enjoys broad bipartisan support and make it sound scary and unfair.

 

As our Dominic Pino noted:

 

A big part of a politician’s job is trying to make policy ideas sound good to voters. There are any number of different ways to describe a policy idea. For example, a politician could communicate to voters about inflation and interest rates with articles from economics journals, mathematical equations, and lectures about the money supply and the market for loanable funds. Or, like the Reagan campaign did in 1984, he could talk about inflation and interest rates by showing people getting married and young families buying houses. I think we all know which of those approaches would be more successful.

 

Vance here essentially does the opposite of what politicians are supposed to do. He is describing a policy idea in the least palatable way possible.

 

Reportedly, Trump was leaning toward selecting North Dakota governor Doug Burgum as his running mate, but Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump vehemently disagreed and convinced their father that Vance was the best possible pick.

 

Finally . . . once you see the eyeliner, you can’t unsee it. It’s as if Vance is auditioning for The Cure.

Venezuela’s Stolen Election

National Review Online

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

 

On Sunday, Nicolás Maduro did what dictators do. He lied, cheated, and stole another election.

 

When Venezuelans went to the polls, they had no meaningful chance of ending Chavismo’s stranglehold on their country. But their efforts were nothing short of heroic: Media reports say that they braved threats of violence and faced gunfire as they lined up to vote. Exit polls indicate that opposition candidate Edmundo González had won. Maria Corina Machado, the opposition leader so feared by Maduro that the government blocked her from running, said that González had won 70 percent of the vote.

 

Maduro claimed victory, and his government’s electoral council published a result claiming that the Venezuelan leader had beat his opponent by seven points.

 

Now the Biden administration must carefully consider its next steps. It is waiting for the electoral council to publish precinct-level results (or not) and for statements of concern to come in from other governments. There have been a few such statements already, including from Javier Milei and, surprisingly, from the leftist president of Chile, Gabriel Boric.

 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed “serious concern” about the election result, but his cautious approach stops far short of describing reality: This was a stolen election that merits an immediate, strong, and unequivocal response. Unfortunately, it does not look like one is on the way.

 

By waiting for the international community to react, and for the Maduro regime to publish the election results, the administration is just placing a fig leaf on its latest failed foreign policy.

 

The Biden administration has chosen to enable the regime for three years through sanctions relief.

 

In the most worrying development of that policy, last year, it issued a waiver for existing sanctions targeting transactions involving Venezuela’s state-owned oil company. While the White House moved to rescind the broader waiver in April, citing the regime’s disqualification of Machado, the damage had been done. It also still allowed for narrower waivers to be issued to specific companies.

 

Administration officials argue that their deal is what got election observers into the country in the first place and made it possible for exit polls to be compiled.

 

But looking at the broad sweep of Biden’s staggeringly naïve outreach to Venezuela now, it’s more obvious than ever that extending any form of relief to Maduro has done more harm than good.

 

When it agreed to waive the sanctions, and to release certain Maduro allies as part of a prisoner swap last year, the U.S. signaled that it could find a way to work with the strongman and even that it assesses that he may possibly be a good-faith interlocutor. Former climate envoy John Kerry personified this approach when he shook Maduro’s hand, laughing with him, on the sidelines of a climate conference in 2022.

 

But Maduro was never the partner that Biden officials deluded themselves into believing he could be. And once again, developments abroad have overtaken this administration’s ability to execute competent policies that advance the national interest.

 

It’s time for a course correction. In addition to reversing its appeasement of Maduro, the administration can do the right thing by throwing America’s full support behind the Venezuelan people as they embark in the coming days on what will hopefully become an existential challenge to the regime.