By Nick Catoggio
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
At some point on Tuesday, Nikki Haley will address the
Republican National Convention.
Why?
The most accomplished Reagan conservative in America
spoke on Monday and was booed
mercilessly. A few hours later Donald Trump bypassed two conservative-ish
vice presidential hopefuls and chose a Buchananite populist as his running mate
instead.
Politicians typically have two reasons for wanting to
speak at a national convention, one professional and the other ideological.
They share the policy vision their party’s leader has proposed for the country
and they see electoral opportunity for themselves by embracing it on a big
stage.
Neither obtains in Haley’s case. Tapping J.D. Vance as
Trump’s heir apparent extinguished whatever hope remained that she and
conservatives like her will continue to have a meaningful role in the party,
even if some of them haven’t quite
realized it yet.
Everything you need to know about the new prince can be
reduced to two sentences, elegantly stated by the Wall Street Journal’s
Kyle Smith. “The pillars of conservatism are limited government, economic
freedom, and the rule of law. J.D. Vance seems to have contempt for all three,”
he wrote. Liz
Cheney elaborated in a separate post: “J.D.
Vance has pledged he would do what Mike Pence wouldn’t—overturn an election and
illegally seize power. He says the president can ignore the rulings of our
courts. He would capitulate to Russia and sacrifice the freedom of our allies
in Ukraine.”
“The Trump GOP is no longer the party of Lincoln, Reagan,
or the Constitution,” she concluded, obviously correctly. So what is Nikki
Haley doing at its convention?
Jerry Seinfeld has a famous joke about how being a fan of
a sports team is tantamount to “rooting for laundry.” Because your loyalty is
to the franchise and not its personnel, you might cheer wildly for a player one
season and give him the McConnell treatment the next, after he’s traded away.
Ultimately you’re rooting for whoever wears the team’s uniform—for “laundry.”
Silly tribal allegiances are fine for silly diversions
like sports, but rooting for laundry in politics is idiotic. If a party
continues to command your loyalty by dint of the color of its jersey, it has no
incentive to meet your policy demands. By stumping for a movement now led by
Trump and J.D. Vance, Haley is telling conservatives that laundry is more
important than the
principles she and they purported to hold for the last 40 years.
Wars traditionally end with surrenders. Maybe that’s her
role today—to formally capitulate on behalf of Reaganites by handing her sword
to the conquering Birchers.
But even if Haley feels a faint duty to do one last good
deed for a party that made her famous, one would think simple dignity at this
point would lead her to beg off. Vance’s ascension hasn’t just cemented Trump’s
party as illiberal and authoritarian, after all; it’s affirmed abject
bootlicking as model behavior for Republicans.
Haley should have more self-respect than to vouch for a
party of bootlickers.
***
The most poisonous aspect of Trumpism is the moral
incentives it creates.
The policies are usually bad, but not universally. A
stronger border would be an improvement over whatever the hell Joe Biden
has been doing for three and a half years.
Trumpism’s brinkmanship with the constitutional order is
atrocious, but a pie-eyed optimist would remind us that nothing too terrible
has happened … yet. The coup plot failed. The insurrectionists went to prison.
Trump was tried and convicted in New York. Institutions have done their jobs,
sort of.
The real calamity of the modern right’s politics is the
moral lessons being taught and learned, especially by impressionable
constituencies.
Among them: Loyalty is the cardinal virtue and a duty
that’s owed to you unconditionally, but not one that you owe anyone in return
(including your spouse). If you lose a contest, you should fight to overturn
the result by hook or by crook rather than accept defeat. Ruthlessness is
strength; if you can get your way by making your enemy feel threatened, you’d
be a fool not to do so. Winning is good, but dominating and humiliating your
opponents is even better.
In seeking to satisfy your own desires, you should try to
get away with whatever you think you can get away with without penalty,
whatever price that might impose on others.
Somehow the candidate who practices that worldview is the
favored candidate of evangelical Christians, or what now passes
for them. A few social
conservatives were chagrined to see an OnlyFans model address the
Republican convention on Monday night, reasoning that “what she represents is
antithetical to the values and virtues the party claims to stand for.” But
that’s not true. It may be antithetical to what the GOP used to
stand for, but it sure isn’t antithetical to what the
party’s current
leader stands for. And insofar as he pretends otherwise, only a rube would
believe him.
I could fill several newsletters describing the moral
perversions of Trumpism. But here’s another that’s germane today: It treats
fulsome obsequiousness by a weaker man toward a stronger one as something to
encourage and reward.
Of all the twisted moral lessons a parent should not want
to instill in their children, it’s that they should eagerly tongue the boots of
those with authority over them and expect their own boots to be tongued by
subordinates in return. And you would think Trumpists, of all people, would
agree. Their faction is a rolling boil of male bravado, in the image of its
leader, and it’s descended from a Tea Party faction that furiously resented
federal authority.
Leftist soy boys might bow and scrape to their masters,
but a real American man is proud, strong, independent, and free. Neither he nor
his sons will ever lick anyone’s boots …
… except Donald Trump’s, that is, in which case they’re
happy to lick even the soles clean.
It will never stop being strange that a political
movement of loud-and-proud self-styled alpha males, many of them with genuinely
impressive masculine credentials, have conspired to form the most embarrassing
cult of teenybopper-ish idol-worship in American political history. With a
blow-dried blowhard from Manhattan at its center, no less.
But, strange or not, it makes J.D. Vance the perfect
choice as Trump’s running mate and heir apparent. No one in the party has
bootlicked quite like him since 2016.
Every Republican politician of note has toadied to Trump
to one degree or another since he entered politics. Some, like Elise Stefanik,
have undergone astonishing faux-transformations from establishment centrists
leery of his influence to fire-breathing MAGA disciples willing to defend
anything he does, the more offensive the better.
It’s stiff competition to be the ultimate Trump
sycophant. But I do think Vance is the winner.
Partly that’s due to where he started from. I’ve written
hundreds of thousands of words about Trump over the last nine years but never
have I speculated that he might be “America’s Hitler.” Vance
did. He was a strong-form Never Trumper in 2016, leveraging his
authority as a man with special insight into the problems of rural Americans to
declare that Trump
wasn’t the solution.
Today he’s among the most effusive Trump apologists in
Congress. Essentially, he’s added an
enthusiastic exclamation point to his prior observations about Trump’s
fascist tendencies.
The other reason he wins as premier bootlicker is how far
he’s been willing to go to earn the title. Figures like Stefanik and Marco
Rubio can mouth all the right words about the greatness of the “America First”
agenda, but the hardcore demagogues around Trump like Tucker Carlson and Steve
Bannon can smell a phony. No doubt Elise and Marco worked hard behind the
scenes to try to reassure them that they could be trusted as heir apparent.
Vance outworked them. God only knows what he said
privately to the post-liberal brain trust, but by decision day all the worst
people on the right were pushing
Trump to put him on the ticket: Tucker, Elon Musk, Trump’s sons, and tech
bro David Sacks, who licked
a different authoritarian’s boots onstage at the convention on Monday
night. Again and again in public, Vance seemed willing to go just a bit further
than the rest of the competition to flatter Trump’s nationalist preferences and
demonstrate his loyalty. He wasn’t merely against funding Ukraine; he didn’t
care about Ukraine. He didn’t merely disagree with what Mike Pence did on
January 6; he would have thrust the
country into a constitutional crisis.
He’s the ur-sycophant, the supreme example of a
clear-eyed Trump skeptic gone bad. Even the beard he grew after 2016 suggests, a la Mr.
Spock, a more sinister version of his alternate self.
Shouldn’t a party of bootlickers have one of its own on
the ticket?
***
Vance is notable for another reason. In his best-selling
book, Hillbilly Elegy, he appealed to the rural underclass to take
responsibility for its own ills. “I don’t know what the answer is precisely,”
he wrote,
“but I know it starts when we stop blaming Obama or Bush or faceless companies
and ask ourselves what we can do to make things better.” He lived that ethic
too, pulling himself up by the proverbial bootstraps.
“Personal responsibility” was a classic Republican pitch,
typical of the party at the time. It was partly because he feared Trumpism
would be a diversion from that necessary task that Vance opposed the GOP’s
nominee in 2016.
Eight years later, he’s foursquare behind Trump’s message
that rural Americans have been exploited by predatory globalist forces and only
the “cultural
heroin” of Trumpism can save them. The bootstraps pitch has been replaced
by something new. “I think our people hate the right people,” he said
in an interview in 2021. When asked who “the right people” to hate were, his
campaign named “the political, financial and Big Tech elites.” (Vance himself
is now a member of all three of those groups.)
It’s no exaggeration and no coincidence to say that the
transformation of J.D. Vance mirrors the transformation of the Republican Party
over the last decade. As much as the left, if not more so, the modern GOP has
encouraged its members to believe that the institutions of American life are
arrayed against them and spoiling to victimize them. But unlike the left, the
only solution Republicans can think to offer to that problem is placing a
singular messianic hero above the law.
Vance might have more insight than most into how that
came to be.
On Monday data circulated from a new survey detailing
Trump’s popularity with male voters. It’s not news that he polls better with
men than with women, and that was true in this poll across all marital
subgroups. But where he dominated, interestingly, was among divorced men. Fully
56 percent are supporting him in November, easily topping his numbers among
married and single males. The gap in his support between divorced men and
divorced women was also wider than in any other cohort.
It makes sense that men who feel disempowered would be
drawn to a political figure who radiates male power, and there are a lot
of men out there who feel that way besides just the divorced. That’s what Vance
worried about in 2016, I think—that anomic and dispossessed Americans would be
seduced by Trump’s strongman persona because they would derive a sense of
vicarious empowerment from it. They would come to see him as a sort of avenging
angel, capable of exacting revenge on the cultural enemies responsible for
their impotence in a way that they can’t.
And so maybe it isn’t such a paradox that a party of
tough-guy alpha males and salt-of-the-earth “real Americans” would also end up
as a party of bootlickers. That’s how it always is in authoritarian movements,
no? Once your sense of personal agency and authority comes to depend on the
leader’s empowerment, you’re incentivized to exalt him in unusually
cringey and alarming ways. Boot slobber is assured, which is just what
Vance gave us as he swung around toward Trumpism.
***
There’s one other person besides Donald Trump to whom
Vance owes his new promotion. We should say a word about him.
Here he was on Monday evening, speaking—or trying
to speak—to NBC News.
The rest of the interview wasn’t much
better.
The worst possible candidate to oppose a party that
fetishizes strength and promises vicarious empowerment is a geriatric who seems
more grotesquely enfeebled by the day. Many times I’ve speculated here that
MAGA Republicans secretly prefer to lose elections, but it’s not the GOP this
time that seems intent on sabotaging itself, is it?
The private polling Democrats are seeing is reportedly
abysmal. The president’s allies are so anxious about him suffering another
cognitive catastrophe in public before he’s nominated that they’re rushing
to make it official even though there’s no logistical reason to do so.
Nothing demonstrates confidence in your party’s chances like anointing your
candidate early because you’re worried he’ll blow up his campaign before the
convention if you don’t.
Reportedly Trump came very close to choosing North Dakota
Gov. Doug Burgum, a more traditional Republican, as his running mate but was talked
out of it at the last second by his sons. And under the circumstances, you
can understand why: Joe Biden’s weakness as a candidate is so glaring that
Trump presumably saw no reason not to gamble on someone with whom he has more
in common ideologically than to make a “safe” pick.
He’s going to win either way, so why not choose Vance?
Choosing Vance instead of Burgum will have momentous
consequences for the right even if Trump loses in the end. Vance is now the
frontrunner for the nomination in 2028; his ascension to the ticket will chase
more Reaganite conservatives out of the party, tightening populists’ grip;
debates on matters from regulating
Wall Street to funding
Ukraine to seizing
the assets of political enemies will tilt further toward the Buchananites;
the lesson that lavish obeisant bootlicking is the path to advancement in the
GOP will be reinforced.
Vance represents the professionalization of
post-liberalism. Trump will be seen in time as a charismatic revolutionary,
talented at smashing things but not really cut out for management; the wave of
disciples who follow him into power will be viewed as the New Right finally
gaining its bearings and becoming more efficient at executing its project.
Trump 2.0 will be “an order of magnitude more effective” than the first
iteration, wrote an excited Christopher Rufo
on Monday, because this time it’ll be backed by “an emerging right-wing
counter-elite.”
That’s Vance. And that’s why the worst people in the
party want him.
A more formidable Democratic nominee might have forced Trump to play it safe with Burgum or Rubio. As it is, the Biden catastrophe has given us a Trump running mate whose promotion means the end of Reaganism and will very likely give us President Trump in November. We’ve already paid a terrible price for an old man’s vanity.
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