The Case for Nikki Haley

By Michael R. Strain

Monday, October 30, 2023

 

Mike Pence suspended his presidential campaign on Saturday. “It’s become clear to me: This is not my time,” said the former vice president. Pence’s campaign failed to gain traction. Rather than head into the winter nominating contests and secure single-digit support, he has stepped aside.

 

The other Republican presidential candidates should do the same. That is, all of them except Nikki Haley.

 

It is imperative that Donald Trump not be the Republican nominee in 2024. President Trump is currently the favorite for the GOP nomination — by a large margin. But he would likely lose a head-to-head match against Haley.

 

Haley’s rise in the polls continues. According to a poll released this morning, she is tied for second place in Iowa, up ten percentage points since August. In that poll, fewer than half (43 percent) of likely Republican caucus-goers picked Trump as their first-choice candidate. Give the voters in that state a choice between Trump and one other candidate — and give that candidate enough time to make her case to voters in a one-on-one contest — and my money’s on Trump losing.

 

I am not the first person to make this observation. Former Texas congressman Will Hurd suspended his presidential campaign this month and urged the party to rally behind Haley.

 

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Hurd argued against what he described as the fallacy “that donors, influencers, elected officials and candidates can wait to consolidate.” Hurd continued:

 

A candidate needs the resources and momentum now to establish a strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire. The party can’t wait until next year to counter the narrative that Mr. Trump is invincible. That progress — and significant investment — needs to be made this autumn if a candidate is to have a fighting chance on Super Tuesday.

 

Hurd is right to have a sense of urgency:

 

The time is now. If we wait much longer, we will anoint Mr. Trump as the leader of our party. While I have many friends running who represent the right direction for the party and America, Ms. Haley has the clearest path to victory, the character and credentials to lead, the willingness to take on Mr. Trump, and the conservative record needed to beat Joe Biden.

 

In my Project Syndicate column in September I argued that Haley has the right stuff to beat Trump:

 

Haley’s recent surge could reflect many factors, not least her temperament. Like Trump, she presents herself as a tough fighter who is willing to stand up to entrenched interests. But instead of the persona of an angry populist, Haley projects confident resolve. She does not indulge in the politics of resentment and victimhood that characterize Trumpian populism.

 

And:

 

When describing why she wants to be president, Haley did not echo Trump’s combative, grievance-filled 2017 inaugural address, in which he vowed to end “American carnage.” Instead, she spoke with the fundamental optimism that used to animate American conservatism: “When we really focus back on faith and family and country, and the idea that America is the best country in the world, that’s when our best days are to come.”

 

Beyond temperament, Haley’s views on public policy — and the values communicated by those positions — align more closely with traditional American conservatism. In sharp contrast to the Trumpian populist candidates, Haley has been explicit that the United States has a direct interest in Ukraine defeating Russia. During last month’s GOP primary debate, she cast the conflict in moral terms, as a fight between “good and evil.”

 

Hamas’s brutal terrorist attack against Israel only strengthens the case for the GOP rallying behind Haley.

 

But, I argued in my column:

 

On several important issues, including US-China relations, Haley shares Trump-era GOP concerns. She has called China “our number one national security threat” and criticized the bipartisan consensus – namely, that cooperation with China was always in America’s best interest – that had prevailed for three decades prior to Trump’s election.

 

Haley is also best positioned to beat President Biden in the general election. Indeed, a poll from last month found that Haley is the only Republican contender who would beat Biden — including Trump. If conservatives and Republicans want to see a Republican win the 2024 general election, then they need to get behind Haley. Today.

 

This is an all-hands-on-deck moment. Without positive action, Trump will be the nominee. Leaders on the right need to do all they can to deny Trump the nomination. That requires giving primary voters a real choice between Trump and one alternative.

 

Haley is clearly in the best position to beat Trump for the nomination and to beat Biden for the presidency. The more voters focus on her, the more they want to see her sitting in the Oval Office as president. The remaining GOP candidates need to follow Pence’s lead and put country before personal political ambition. They need to stop obscuring the view of the candidate most likely to win.