By Jim Geraghty
Tuesday, August 02, 2022
Ayman al-Zawahiri, the longtime number two
in al-Qaeda who took over the organization after the death of Osama bin Laden,
departed this Earth on Saturday when he met the wrong end of two specially
modified Hellfire missiles. This type of missile is designated as the R9X, known as
the “flying Ginsu” because it uses sharp blades and
high velocity to kill targets instead of an explosion.
Zawahiri will not rest in peace, but he is
resting in pieces.
It’s understandable if you haven’t heard
the name Ayman al-Zawahiri in a long while or thought about him much in recent
years. Americans don’t really think about al-Qaeda much anymore, even though 20
years ago that would have seemed shocking. Back on
September 11, 2018, I wrote:
Oh, some
analysts say al-Qaeda won? I notice Osama bin Laden didn’t make it to the
victory party. Every once in a while, his former lieutenant and al-Qaeda’s new
leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, issues some new video, but the American people barely hear about it. I don’t think that’s a
reflection of bad news judgment on the part of the U.S. media producers. When
bin Laden issued videos after 9/11, the whole world stopped and listened in
fear. When Zawahiri talks, the world shrugs, or doesn’t notice at all. He’s
turned into a remote-Pakistani podcaster.
When the U.S. Navy SEALs took out bin
Laden, some terrorism analysts argued that the significance of that strike was
likely to be overstated in the public’s mind, as al-Qaeda is an organization,
not just one man. But effective leaders are not easily replaced, and it is now
clear that al-Qaeda without bin Laden was a downgraded threat. Al-Qaeda turned
into the terrorist equivalent of that band that was big when your dad was
younger, lost its front man, kept making videos that no one watches, and you’re
surprised to learn is still around today.
Al-Qaeda’s attacks after bin Laden’s death
were smaller, and frankly largely forgotten. I’ll bet most Americans don’t
remember al-Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula claiming responsibility for the December 6, 2019,
shooting at Naval Air Station Pensacola, when a member of the Saudi military being trained by American forces
killed three people. The last al-Qaeda attack that dominated headlines around
the globe was the January 2015 shooting at Charlie Hebdo’s
offices in Paris.
With Zawahiri’s death, the last Islamist
terrorist who was well-known to Americans is crossed off the list; he joins
al-Qaeda founders Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Osama bin Laden, and ISIS leader Abu
Bakr al-Baghdadi. Some would also put Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem
Soleimani on that list; he had a lot of American blood on his hands, and even
though he was a state official, he supported, supplied, and enabled a lot of
terrorist groups.
Khalid Sheik Mohammed is still sitting in
Guantanamo Bay, where last we heard, his lawyers were seeking to
negotiate a plea deal to spare him the death penalty. Then again, considering the complaint that
Guantanamo Bay prisoners are getting fat and that one of them doubled his weight, maybe the plan is to kill
him slowly through heart disease.
Sure, al-Qaeda and ISIS are still around
and still have leaders, but Americans don’t think about them much and haven’t
had much reason to think about them lately. I would argue that’s a victory of
sorts. Of course, daily life for Americans has new threats and menaces — school
shooters and other rage-filled nuts, high crime rates, vicious drug cartels and
gangs, and God knows what kind of contagious virus could be coming our way on
the next international flight.
Biden’s Run of Good News
Joe Biden ordered the strike against
Zawahiri, and the al-Qaeda leader assumed room temperature on his watch, so
Biden gets to take a victory lap. Shocking as this may seem to some people,
Biden really is having a good stretch, particularly compared to the rest of
this year’s cavalcade of disasters.
He got a superconductor chips bill through
Congress, and Joe Manchin came around on a smaller version of Build Back
Better, as long as it was called the “Inflation Reduction Act.” There are some
signs that the Democratic enthusiasm for the midterms is picking up a bit and
that Republican Senate candidates are underperforming in some key states. And
now, he’s overseen the Zawahiri strike.
But even the success of the Zawahiri
strike raises some questions about the long-term consequences of Biden’s past
decisions. One of the reasons Zawahiri was in Kabul was because the U.S.
vacated Afghanistan, leaving the Taliban
to run the place unchallenged:
The
Taliban confirmed an air strike on a residential house in the Sherpoor area of
Kabul but said there were no casualties.
Zawahiri
moved to a “very safe place” in Kabul a few months after the Taliban took
control of Afghanistan in August last year, a senior leader of the radical
group told Reuters on Tuesday on the condition of anonymity.
Now, there’s no doubt; Afghanistan is once
again a base of operations for al-Qaeda. The fact that the U.S. can still
strike targets in that country — at least in this case — is a welcome relief;
killing Zawahiri is the first thing to go right for the U.S. in Afghanistan
since Biden took office.
But it’s fair to worry about all of
Zawahiri’s lieutenants and the rest of al-Qaeda in that country. A U.N. report
last month concluded that:
Al-Zawahiri’s
apparent increased comfort and ability to communicate has coincided with the Taliban’s
takeover of Afghanistan and the consolidation of power of key Al-Qaida allies
within their de facto administration. . . . The international context is
favorable to Al-Qaida, which intends to be recognized again as the leader of
global jihad. Al-Qaida propaganda is now better developed to compete with ISIL
(ISIS) as the key actor in inspiring the international threat environment, and
it may ultimately become a greater source of directed threat.
A Big and Consequential Primary Day for
Republicans
Today is primary day in Arizona, Kansas,
Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. The editors of National Review have two particular endorsements that primary
voters ought to heed and consider. First, in the Missouri Senate primary:
If
Missouri Republicans are tempted to “own the libs,” or outrage progressives, by
nominating the disgraced former governor Eric Greitens as their Senate
candidate on Tuesday, they should think again. By elevating Greitens, they
would only own themselves.
There are
too many arguments against a Greitens redux to count, but the crux of it is
that he is a candidate of singularly bad character who would be the weakest
candidate in a general election. . . .
Both
Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler and Attorney General Eric Schmitt would be fine
senators who would serve Missourians well. For our money, Schmitt is the best
choice. His record is strong, and his performance in polling indicates he has a
better chance than Hartzler of ensuring a Greitens defeat. He also looks better
in polling against potential Democratic opponents than Hartzler, and much
better than Greitens.
In a year that has featured some terrible
decisions by Republican primary voters (*cough* Dr. Oz *cough*),
nominating Greitens would be the most spectacular self-inflicted wound, taking
what should be a near-certain slam-dunk win in Missouri and instantly turning
it into a competitive race.
Then, in the Arizona
gubernatorial primary:
[Kari
Lake] and the chairwoman of the Arizona GOP, Kelli Ward, want to immolate the
state GOP on a pyre of insanity and ridiculous lies, and may well succeed. . .
.
[Lake] has
called the 2020 election “the number-one issue” today, and maintains that it is
“disqualifying” and “sickening” for her main opponent, Karrin Taylor Robson, to decline to say during
a debate that the election was stolen.
She has
the endorsement of the four horsemen of the election apocalypse — Donald Trump,
Paul Gosar, Mike Flynn, and Mike Lindell — and there is no doubt that she has
earned it. . . .
Robson,
the alternative to Lake, is a real-estate developer who has the endorsement of
Mike Pence and Governor Doug Ducey. She is a conservative and — we never
thought that this would be a central distinguishing characteristic in such a
high-profile race — rational.
Arizona
Republicans should avoid the abyss.
The choice can’t get any clearer, Republicans.
Your mileage may vary; maybe you find
former president Donald Trump’s endorsement of “Eric” in the Missouri Senate
race funny. (Dan calls it “hilariously
indecisive.”) To me, if you want to endorse a
candidate, endorse a candidate. If you don’t want to endorse a candidate, don’t
endorse a candidate. An endorsement is a declaration that “this candidate is
the best choice,” or at least the better choice. It isn’t like filling out your
NCAA Tournament bracket and trying to guess which team will win.
Greitens is a walking disaster area;
Schmitt is a solid conservative and
accomplished state attorney general who doesn’t record
campaign ads fantasizing about hunting down and executing people who disagree
with him. The only thing they have in common is their
first name and that they’re both Republicans who want to serve in the Senate.
If you can’t make a choice between those two, get out of the decision-making
business.
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