By Jim Geraghty
Wednesday, January 06, 2021
On the menu today: At this hour, it appears Democrats won
both Senate runoffs and with them, control of the U.S. Senate; the increasingly
unhinged President Trump insists that Vice President Mike Pence can reject the
presidential-election results and have the House of Representatives resolve the
election; and why bigger states will have a tougher time getting their
coronavirus vaccination rates up.
It Was a Rough Night
for Republicans
As of this writing, we know that Democrat Raphael Warnock
defeated Republican Kelly Loeffler in one of Georgia’s two Senate runoffs, 50.6
percent to 49.4 percent. And with 98 percent of the expected vote in, Democrat
Jon Ossoff leads Republican David Perdue, 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent, a
margin of 16,730 votes. The remaining votes are believed to be in heavily
Democratic-leaning margins.
At some time today, Ossoff is expected to be declared the
winner. The Senate will be split 50–50, and starting January 20, Vice President
Kamala Harris will break ties. Chuck Schumer will be Senate majority leader,
and Mitch McConnell will become minority leader in the chamber. And the
Democratic Party will begin the legislative cycle with the White House and
narrow control of the House and Senate. For Republicans, this outcome may not
be the absolute worst-case scenario of 2020, but it’s not that far from it.
This is because Republicans couldn’t hold onto either
Senate seat in Georgia. This is a state where Republicans had won every Senate
election since 2002 — and the winner in the state’s 1998 Senate race was
Democrat Zell Miller, who
by the end of his term was giving the keynote address at the Republican
National Convention. Republicans won every gubernatorial race in Georgia
since 1998, despite what Stacey Abrams claims. In Georgia, Republicans won
every lieutenant gubernatorial race since 2004, every secretary of state race
since 2002, and every state attorney general race since 2006. Heading into the
2020 cycle, Republicans had won the presidential elections in Georgia in eight
of the past nine cycles.
In 2014, the last major midterm election before Donald
Trump descended the escalator and ran for president, Republicans won the
gubernatorial election by more than 200,000 votes, and the lieutenant
governor’s race and the down-ticket races by margins close to or exceeding
400,000 votes, while Perdue won the Senate race by more than 197,000 votes. In
other words, up until very recently, Georgia was a really, really Republican-leaning
state.
When a president goes nuts and spends two months
insisting that his reelection victory was stolen by a vast conspiracy that “moved
the inner parts of the machines and replaced them with other parts” his
party is not likely to win the close ones.
Back in July 2016, Chuck Schumer could see that in Trump,
the Republican Party had a nominee who had much more appeal among blue-collar
whites than usual and much less appeal among suburbanites than usual. Schumer
was convinced this was a good trade: “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in
western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs
in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”
That was the key miscalculation of the 2016 cycle.
But by 2018, that trade didn’t look as good for
Republicans, as they lost control of the House; 38
of the 41 congressional seats that flipped from red to blue were suburban.
Trump’s blue-collar voters just didn’t turn out as much in those midterms. Those
blue-collar Trump voters didn’t
show up in the numbers that Republicans needed in gubernatorial or senatorial
races in Wisconsin and Michigan.
In 2020 . . . that trade-off worked somewhat better for
Republicans, but not quite good enough. It’s important to note that Republicans
won back a bunch of suburban congressional seats, driven in large part by
candidates who were women, minorities, veterans, or some combination of those:
Michelle Steel, Young Kim, Carlos Giminez, Maria Elvira Salazar, and Burgess Owens.
You know what suburban voters do? They show up and vote.
Year in, year out, presidential years, midterms, off-year elections, special
elections, non-November local elections. They must rank among the most easily
overlooked, underrated, and underappreciated voters, those allegedly
wishy-washy, milquetoast, not-fond-of-Trump, minivan-driving moderate suburban
soccer moms and white-collar dads. They’re not exciting. They’re rarely looking
for anything revolutionary. They’re not looking to “burn it all down”; they’re
the ones who built the things that would get burned down.
You know why it makes sense for a political party to
target its messaging and appeal to this voter demographic? Because you don’t
have to do much to get them to the polls. They do it out of habit and civic
duty. As John Bragg put it last night: “They always
vote, just like they always file their taxes, pay their bills, mow their lawns,
send their kids to college. The question is, which party appeals to those
people in 2020?”
As for those blue-collar Trump voters . . . Republican
grassroots turnout was down last night.
Republicans will be arguing about why it was down for a long time. You can
argue that David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are less than thrilling candidates;
they are not, as I like to say, whirling dervishes of raw political charisma.
But recall that back in November, Perdue beat Ossoff by more than 88,000 votes;
he just fell three-tenths of a percentage point short of that 50 percent
threshold.
David Perdue is the same guy he was in November. His
opponent is the same. The state’s demographics didn’t change. So, what changed?
What made this runoff election particularly unusual is
that the president of the United States, the state party chairman, most of the
state’s GOP congressional delegation, and other GOP figures spent the past two
months arguing that Georgia’s recent presidential-election results were
fraudulent and that mass-scale vote fraud and hacking of voting machines
changed Trump votes to Biden votes. Shockingly, that consistent messaging did
not increase the enthusiasm among Republican voters to cast ballots again. If
only someone had warned them!
It is unlikely that many Georgia voters were deeply
familiar with Lin Wood or Sidney Powell before the November election. But by
December 2, the pair’s profile as unofficial Trump-allied lawyers had given
them the stature to draw a huge crowd to a press-conference-turned-rally, where
Wood urged Georgia Republicans to not vote for Perdue and Loeffler.
“Don’t you give it to them,” Wood said. “Why would you go
back and vote in another rigged election for God’s sake? Fix it! You gotta fix
it!” The event turned into an anti-get-out-the-vote rally. It was a
keep-the-vote-home rally.
Wood punctuated that rally by declaring, “Do not be
fooled twice. This is Georgia. We ain’t dumb.” More recently, Wood has
asserted that Vice President Mike Pence is part of a conspiracy against the
president, has committed treason, and should be executed by a firing squad.
If two lawyers can just show up, grab a microphone, and
convince diehard Trump fans to not vote . . . and outweigh the voice of the
president, urging them to vote . . . then diehard Trump fans are not a
reliable base of support for the Republican Party. They are simply too flaky,
erratic, illogical, and gullible for any party to rely upon. As
laid out yesterday, a big chunk of Trump’s legacy was at stake in the
Georgia runoffs. The stakes couldn’t be higher. But some Republicans heeded Lin
Wood’s advice and chose to stay home.
The “stolen election” crowd will say, “See, this is why
you need to cater to us, Republicans!” And Republicans will wonder . . . why?
Why should we adapt to appeal to a demographic that won’t show up to vote if
two lawyers come along with a conspiracy theory involving Venezuelans, the CIA,
and Bigfoot?
As Bragg asked,
just how can the Republican Party appeal to a demographic that believes in
mythical “Army raids” to seize
election vote-counting servers in Germany, nonexistent
brothers that are Chinese agents, QAnon, that Supreme
Court Chief Justice John Roberts is involved in child-smuggling and had Antonin
Scalia murdered, that Jeffrey
Epstein is still alive, and God knows what else?
Why should Republicans put a lot of effort into courting
the conspiracy-theorist demographic, when the suburbs — once the backbone of
the party — are just sitting there, drifting to the Democrats, in part because
of a Republican president who fully embraces all those conspiracy theories?
Trump: Mike Pence Can
Decide to Have the House Resolve the 2020 Presidential Election
In other news, late last night, the president issued a
statement declaring that when Congress meets today, Vice President Mike Pence “can
decertify the results or send them back to the states for change and
certification. He can also decertify the illegal and corrupt results and
send them to the House of Representatives for the one vote for one state
tabulation.”
Neither of those is the case. Pence presides over the
congressional certification process, but he cannot intervene or overrule it. The law is clear, and you
can read it here. The vice president, acting as president of the Senate,
will ask for objections. But the Senate resolves its own objections by voting
upon them, and the same is true for the House. Under Trump’s creative
interpretation of the law, Vice President Biden could have decertified the
results of the 2016 election, Dick Cheney could have decertified the results of
the 2008 election, and Al Gore could have decertified the results of the 2000
election.
In that recent court case filed by Louie Gohmert, contending
that Pence does have the authority, the judge offered a scathing assessment and
rebuke.
U.S.
District Judge James E. Boasberg concluded:
the suit rests on a fundamental and
obvious misreading of the Constitution. It would be risible were its target not
so grave: the undermining of a democratic election for President of the United
States.” He continued Gohmert and his lawyers “do not, explain how this
District Court has authority to disregard Supreme Court precedent. Nor do they
ever mention why they have waited until seven weeks after the election to bring
this action and seek a preliminary injunction based on purportedly
unconstitutional statutes that have existed for decades — since 1948 in the
case of the federal ones. It is not a stretch to find a serious lack of good
faith here . . . Courts are not instruments through which parties engage in
such gamesmanship or symbolic political gestures. As a result, at the
conclusion of this litigation, the Court will determine whether to issue an
order to show cause why this matter should not be referred to its Committee on
Grievances for potential discipline of Plaintiffs’ counsel.
No matter how many times and how emphatically Trump is
told Pence doesn’t have the authority, the president will choose to believe
otherwise. At 1 a.m.
last night, President Trump tweeted: “If Vice President Mike Pence comes
through for us, we will win the presidency.”
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