By Michael Brendan Dougherty
Wednesday, July 01, 2020
There are many, many ways to try to measure the 2020
presidential race. How well is Donald Trump doing in the states he needs to win
compared with Joe Biden, such as Arizona and Michigan? (Not well.) How well is
Donald Trump doing with the demographic groups he needs to retain, such as
suburban moms and the elderly? (Not well.) Does the campaign have a record of
accomplishment that energizes his base and a vision for the future that excites
independents? (Not really.) Is the country going through a crisis? (Yes.) But
is it giving the incumbent high marks for handling it, indicating an
unwillingness to change horses before the race? (No, not at all.)
Those indicators are all ominous for Donald Trump.
They’re ominous for Republicans attached to him, and for the conservative
causes that rise and fall with the GOP’s fortunes.
Since the beginning of this campaign, I’ve preferred a
simpler understanding. Donald Trump was
the most broadly unpopular presidential nominee in his party’s history.
And, unlike
Hillary Clinton, the same cannot be said of Joe Biden. Four years ago, the
polls were basically correct. On a popular-vote level, they were well within
the most likely scenarios pollsters envisioned. But Trump played a blinder in
what Michael Moore called the Brexit States: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,
and Ohio. Currently polls have Biden up in Michigan by double digits.
According to reporting at Politico, Trump knows he
is currently running behind Joe Biden, and he is searching for an advantage.
Maybe even a new nickname to replace “sleepy Joe.”
There is still time for Trump to turn things around, for
events to intervene in a way that favors him. As voters take a closer look at
Joe Biden’s record of policymaking, and at his current condition, we can expect
the race to tighten up.
But as things are currently proceeding, Trump is an
electoral anchor on Republican senators and House members. Republican senators are
taking Trump out of their ads. In Maine, Susan Collins is in a very tough
fight with Sara Gideon. In Colorado, Cory Gardner took office in 2014 as the
Obama years were heading into exhaustion. He also ran as an independent-minded
Republican and he once called on Trump to drop out of the 2016 race. He’s now
in an impossible position of simultaneously trying to enthuse Trump’s base of
supporters in 2020, who consider him a potential sell-out, and all the
independent voters he needs who want him to sell Trump out. Republicans could
lose up to seven or eight seats in the Senate if all goes poorly. Seats in
Montana, North Carolina, Kansas, and Arizona could all be lost in a Trump
wipe-out.
Conservatives must steel themselves for the difficulty
losses such as these would impose. Though most of us can recall the liberal
taunts of fascist and Nazi that greeted presidents such as George H.W. Bush and
his son, this time progressives really have convinced themselves that “it’s
different.” One can see it in the immense pressure campaign against Silicon Valley
since 2016 to tilt the information playing field away from Trump, even though
the progressive near-monopoly on mainstream media naturally makes social media
friendly territory for the Right. One can see it in the long-term support for
conspiracy theories about Trump’s relationship to Vladimir Putin.
A weak Democratic president standing upon a progressive
majority in the House and Senate will be pushed by the media and other powerful
influencers to begin a campaign of “de-Trumpification” of the United States
government. This means not just ejecting the relatively small number of
political appointees by Trump, but finding ways to limit the role of the many
judges he appointed across the federal judiciary. We should anticipate calls to
overthrow the “Trump judiciary,” via court-packing or other means.
For three years, Democrats have been fueling their imaginations with wonky dreams of re-ordering America’s Constitution, and revolutionary passions for shedding it altogether. The rocket engine could be given a jump-start in just a few months.
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