By
Victor Davis Hanson
Wednesday,
January 20, 2016
What to
fear in Germany — an ideologically driven leader who unilaterally is changing
the demographics of the nation without public support, or an angry populist
counter-movement that vows to keep Germans safe by any means necessary when the
government won’t? Both, or neither? Is Germany postmodern in erasing borders,
or premodern in bullying its neighbors to do the same?
Does the
world want Germans to stand up, reassert their pride in Western liberality and
tolerance, and insist that migrants either integrate and follow Western values
or go back home and stay there? Or does it want Germans to more or less
continue to repress any expressions of cultural confidence?
To even
the least-informed observer, German chancellor Angela Merkel’s recent decision
to allow tens of thousands of young Muslim migrants — about two-thirds of them
young men — into Germany from the war-torn and terrorist-infested Middle East
seemed unhinged. Over a million migrants entered Germany in 2015 alone, the
vast majority of them young, male, Muslim, from the Middle East. They were not
refugees by any classical definition. Apparently Merkel in particular, and
Germans in general, must assert that they are the most recklessly postmodern of
all Western nations in order to reassure the world, 77 years after the outbreak
of World War II, that they are no longer the most recklessly nationalistic.
Even a
cynic who saw Germany’s demographic crisis and need for unskilled labor as the
catalyst for welcoming in hundreds of thousands of Middle Eastern males could
not figure out why Merkel would bring such chaos to what is otherwise usually
the least chaotic nation in the world. That migrants are currently harassing
and, at worst, assaulting German women is the logical, not the aberrant result
of dumping thousands of young Muslim men from the Middle East into one of
Europe’s most affluent and most progressive cultures.
Did
Merkel not understand that what Germany does, given its unique past and present
power, takes on global significance in a way not true of other European
countries? Germany’s combination of internal self-destructive tendencies and
arrogance in exporting its immigration foolishness to its European neighbors is
what both confuses and scares the world. Observers want neither another
decadent Weimar Republic nor a nationalist racialist reaction to it.
Certainly,
no nation is more captive to its recent history than is present-day Germany — a
relatively young country that nonetheless has already fought three major wars,
lost two, been stripped of 20 percent of its territory, seen it cities
flattened and economy destroyed, and seen its territory split in two for nearly
45 years when it was Ground Zero of the Cold War.
Germany
is the continent’s most powerful economic nation, but it is reluctant for
obvious reasons to translate that clout into commensurate military power.
Berlin understands that the “German problem” that plagued Europe for a century
and a half was apparently solved by a post-war non-nuclear Germany embedded
deeply within the Europe Union and NATO (with the added insurance of nuclear
members Britain, France, and the United States). Germany has no desire to go
nuclear, even as it will probably fall within range of likely Iranian nuclear
long-range nuclear-tipped missiles over the next decade.
Americans
are somewhat confused about growing German pique toward the United States. In a
number of surveys among the major European countries, Germans repeatedly poll
as those who are least fond of the United States. Indeed, Germany is the only
European nation where America does not enjoy a favorable rating, which it does
enjoy in Britain, Italy, and France. The latest Pew poll taken during the
seventh year of the Obama presidency reveals that only half of Germans looks
positively on the United States. Lots of reasons jump to mind: the recent
spying by the Obama administration on German leaders, the sudden
passive-aggressive efforts by America to isolate Russia, lingering angst over
the Iraq War, the departure of most American NATO troops, and American support
for Israel.
That
German displeasure is so much greater than found in other nations might suggest
some special antipathy for the United States’ preeminent superpower role. Is it
pique over losing two wars to the U.S., or a sense of moral triumphalism that,
while it learned lessons about the futility of war, the interventionist United
States so far has apparently not — and thus endangers those who have? Or is it
more realpolitik and the growing realization that the vanishing American
expeditionary force is not so important to Germany, financially or militarily,
as in the past? Why woo a superpower in decline? In any case, Germans are
certainly confident of their own moral superiority. In an Economist poll they are the only Europeans to rate their own nation
as the EU’s most trustworthy, least arrogant, and most compassionate — a
positive view not shared in the same poll by the majority of its neighbors.
Germany
is rarely ready to join Western efforts to isolate the renegade Vladimir Putin.
But then who would be, after having fought two world wars in the east that cost
collectively over 5 million German youth between 1914 and 1945? If those
nightmares did not discourage chest-thumping with Russia, perhaps sitting
across from 400 Soviet divisions and a forest of tactical nuclear Soviet
missiles for nearly a half century would.
On the
one hand, Merkel’s erstwhile tough talk to the spendthrift southern
Mediterranean bankrupt EU members made perfect sense, given ingrained Germany
trauma from the hyperinflation of the late 1920s that ruined the lives of
millions of thrifty German families and helped to bring a demagogic Hitler to
power. On the other hand, guilt over the bloody wars in the Balkans, and the
lethal behavior of Wehrmacht troops there between April 1941 and 1945, may
explain why Greece, to take one example, was able to leverage Germany for loans
with arguments that transcended pragmatic worries about the unity of the
European Union. Over the last four years, the Greek press found inventive ways
to caricature German leaders as everything from Gauleiters to Waffen SS Obersturmführer.
At some
point, the world wonders, will Germany reassert itself in the traditional manner
that powerful nations do? Again, as polls show, Germans are the most
self-confident of Europeans — and seen by most southern and eastern Europeans
as the most arrogant.
There
are a number of reasons to believe that the 21st century will see a Germany
quite different from that of the last half of the 20th, albeit not necessarily
more similar to its experience in the first half of that century. Under Obama,
the U.S. has shed American postwar global leadership. The vacuum is already
being filled by local hegemonies — Iran, Russia, China, and ISIS. NATO is
underfunded and increasingly irrelevant. The EU is fragmented by both fiscal
and immigration schisms. At some point, the world’s fourth-largest economy will
have to look to its own security.
The
migration mess has reminded Germans of the limits of European ecumenicalism and
the bankruptcy of the multiculturalism by which European youth have been
indoctrinated with the assumption that all cultures are equal, albeit with the
qualifier that the West supposedly suffers the additional pathologies of
colonialism, imperialism, racism, and militarism. That canard may be a trendy
abstract thought, but not so much in the concrete when multiculturalism in
Dusseldorf or Cologne collides with Western notions of feminism, gay rights,
and religious tolerance. Indeed, multiculturalism proves quite dangerous in
terms of chaotic immigration, and suicidal in matters of Islamic-inspired
terrorism.
The
world is schizophrenic about Germany’s near future. At some point, it hopes
Germany will wake up, reassert its confidence in its own institutions, protect
its citizens, and say no more to the thuggery of the Middle East. But on the
other hand, why in the first place did Germany in such arrogant fashion seek to
impose its immigration insanity on its neighbors, and in such an
anti-democratic and bullying fashion? So the same observers, who wish for a
confident European Germany, likewise worry, after its return to normalization
and a proud past, “Then what’s next?”
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