By Jonah Goldberg
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Not counting rumors that Anthony Weiner's marriage has
hit a rocky patch, it may be the worst-kept secret in politics: Joe Biden wants
to be president.
On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the vice
president's inner circle is swabbing the decks, battening down the hatches and
hoisting the mainsails for USS Bidenpalooza 2016. "Everyone involved in
his world," a Democratic official told the Journal, "is engaged in
taking all the steps that make sense to prepare for a run, if he does
run." Biden's people are apparently willing to go for it even if the
allegedly inevitable nominee, Hillary Clinton, decides to run.
Why is this happening?
It's a difficult question to boil down to a single
variable, given the swirling maelstrom of egos, agendas and issues at play.
Still, one answer does seem to cover the waterfront: because ours is a just and
generous God. From my admittedly selfish perspective, a Biden candidacy would
be great for everybody -- and by everybody I mean people who would like to see
the Democratic Party descend into a chaotic food fight.
Indeed, while most of the punditocracy is obsessed with
turning the mostly trivial sniping between New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) into proof of a bloody civil war on the right, the
Democrats are poised to descend into a family squabble of historic proportions
that will amount to a riveting political reality show.
The important distinction between the GOP's internal
disagreements and the Democrats' is that the Republicans are divided over
issues and philosophy. Where should we make trade-offs between national
security and domestic liberty? What is the proper role of government in
domestic affairs? How do we cut the Gordian knot of immigration?
Almost all of the Democratic Party's disagreements
revolve around tactics, personalities, loyalties and aesthetics rather than
principles. (The big exception is the fight over NSA domestic surveillance,
which divides both parties.) And that means things will get personal -- fast.
Ask a loyalist why Clinton should be the nominee or
president, and the response invariably boils down to some claim that she
"deserves" it: She's a woman! She put up with so much! It's her turn!
The case for Biden also often boils down to entitlement:
He's been around a long time; he's the vice president so it's his turn; what
else are you gonna do with him?
Both Clinton and Biden would run as Obama loyalists.
That'll be great with the base, particularly the all-important African-American
bloc. But it assumes that Obama's marginal popularity extends to a general
election, where independents matter. Republicans will be giddy to watch Clinton
and Biden duke it out over who is the more deserving heir to stagnating wages,
the Obamacare debacle and waning global prestige.
But here's the really fun part: Biden has a good shot at
playing the spoiler. Because there's a fact that Biden's detractors and
Clinton's groupies are loath to acknowledge: Biden is the much better
politician. It's not that Biden is a fantastic politician; it's that Clinton is
a very boring one.
But that's not all. Vice presidents have a terrible
record of getting elected to the Oval Office on their own. George H.W. Bush was
the first president since Martin Van Buren to be elected straight from V-POTUS
to POTUS. (Also ominous for Democrats: 1988 was the only time in the last
half-century that a party has won the White House three times in a row, a fact
attributable to Ronald Reagan's popularity and Michael Dukakis' Dukakisness).
But vice presidents have more success securing the nomination. You have to go
back to 1952 and Alben Barkley to find one who sought but failed to win his
party's nomination.
I'd be stunned if Biden actually beat Clinton in the
primaries, but he doesn't need to win to ruin things for her. Simply by
running, Biden would contest Clinton's claim of entitlement and light a match
on the Hindenburg that is her "inevitability." He would encourage
others from outside the establishment to run against them both as a pair of
old-guard retreads who want the presidency out of a sense of entitlement.
And that has the makings of a divine comedy.
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