Thursday, July 12, 2012
Post-revolutionary Libya appears to have elected a
relatively moderate pro-Western government. Good news, but tentative, because
Libya is less a country than an oil well with a long beach and myriad tribes.
Popular allegiance to a central national authority is weak. Even if the
government of Mahmoud Jibril is able to rein in the militias and establish a
functioning democracy, it will be the Arab Spring exception. Consider:
Tunisia and Morocco, the most Westernized of all Arab
countries, elected Islamist governments. Moderate, to be sure, but Islamist still.
Egypt, the largest and most influential, has experienced an Islamist sweep. The
Muslim Brotherhood didn’t just win the presidency. It won nearly half the seats
in parliament, while more openly radical Islamists won 25 percent. Combined,
they command more than 70 percent of parliament — enough to control the writing
of a constitution (which is why the generals hastily dissolved parliament).
As for Syria, if and when Bashar Assad falls, the
Brotherhood will almost certainly inherit power. Jordan could well be next. And
the Brotherhood’s Palestinian wing (Hamas) already controls Gaza.
What does this mean? That the Arab Spring is a misnomer.
This is an Islamist ascendancy, likely to dominate Arab politics for a
generation.
It constitutes the third stage of modern Arab political
history. Stage I was the semicolonial-monarchic rule, dominated by Britain and
France, of the first half of the 20th century. Stage II was the
Arab-nationalist era — secular, socialist, anti-colonial, and anti-clerical —
ushered in by the 1952 Free Officers Revolt in Egypt.
Its vehicle was military dictatorship, and Gamal Nasser
led the way. He raised the flag of pan-Arabism, going so far as changing
Egypt’s name to the United Arab Republic and merging his country with Syria in
1958. That absurd experiment — it lasted exactly three years — was to have been
the beginning of a grand Arab unification, which, of course, never came. Nasser
also fiercely persecuted Islamists — as did his nationalist successors, down to
Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and the Iraqi (Saddam Hussein) and Syrian (the Assads)
Baathists — as the reactionary antithesis to Arab modernism.
But the self-styled modernism of the Arab-nationalist
dictators proved to be a dismal failure. It produced dysfunctional,
semi-socialist, bureaucratic, corrupt regimes that left the citizenry (except
where papered over by oil bounties) mired in poverty, indignity, and
repression.
Hence the Arab Spring, serial uprisings that spread east
from Tunisia in early 2011. Many Westerners naïvely believed the future
belonged to the hip, secular, tweeting kids of Tahrir Square. Alas, this sliver
of Westernization was no match for the highly organized, widely supported,
politically serious Islamists who effortlessly swept them aside in national
elections.
This was not a Facebook revolution but the beginning of
an Islamist one. Amid the ruins of secular nationalist pan-Arabism, the Muslim
Brotherhood rose to solve the conundrum of Arab stagnation and marginality.
“Islam is the answer,” it preached, and carried the day.
But what kind of political Islam? On that depends the
future. The moderate Turkish version or the radical Iranian one?
To be sure, Recep Erdogan’s Turkey is no paragon. The
increasingly authoritarian Erdogan has broken the military, neutered the
judiciary, and persecuted the press. There are more journalists in prison in
Turkey than in China. Nonetheless, for now, Turkey remains relatively
pro-Western (though unreliably so) and relatively democratic (compared to its
Islamic neighborhood).
For now, the new Islamist ascendancy in Arab lands has
taken on the more benign Turkish aspect. Inherently so in Morocco and Tunisia;
by external constraint in Egypt, where the military sees itself as guardian of
the secular state, precisely as did Turkey’s military in the 80 years from
Ataturk to Erdogan.
Genuinely democratic rule may yet come to Arab lands.
Radical Islam is the answer to nothing, as demonstrated by the repression,
social backwardness, and civil strife of Taliban Afghanistan, Islamist Sudan,
and clerical Iran.
As for moderate Islamism, if it eventually radicalizes,
it too will fail and bring on yet another future Arab Spring where democracy
might actually be the answer (as it likely would have been in Iran had the
mullahs not savagely crushed the Green Revolution). Or it might adapt to
modernity, accept the alternation of power with secularists, and thus achieve
by evolution an authentic Arab-Islamic democratic norm.
Perhaps. The only thing we can be sure of today, however,
is that Arab nationalism is dead and Islamism is its successor. This is what
the Arab Spring has wrought. The beginning of wisdom is facing that difficult
reality.
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