Monday, June 04, 2012
It looks as if Governor Scott Walker will survive
Tuesday’s recall vote. The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls has him
leading Milwaukee’s Democratic mayor Tom Barrett by 6.6 points. As of late
Sunday, the betting site Intrade was predicting that Walker has a 94.5 percent
chance of becoming the victor. Even Ed Rendell, the former Pennsylvania
governor and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, is now saying the
recall wasn’t smart. “Don’t get an election that’s divisive, that may have an influence
on the presidential election,” he told MSNBC last week. “We made a mistake
doing that.”
If the recall fails, what will be the takeaways from the 17 months of pitched war that Wisconsin has endured since Governor Walker proposed his dramatic reforms of pensions and privileges in the state’s public-sector unions?
Expect the Left to Blame Obama
Maureen Dowd of
the New York Times dismissed Obama on Sunday as someone who “prefers to float
above, at a reserve, in grandiose mists.” When the likes of Dowd are no longer
feeling the love, we shouldn’t be surprised that other Democrats are dumping on
Obama for not showing up to help Barrett in Wisconsin. “Progressive Pundits Lay
Groundwork to Blame Obama if Wisconsin Recall Fails” was the headline of a searing
critique by Noah Rothman at Mediaite. He quoted Ed Schultz of MSNBC
sarcastically noting that the president was in neighboring Iowa and Minnesota
last week and that his campaign office is in nearby Chicago. “It’s all around,
but is it in?” Schultz asked of the Obama campaign. “[Union members] want him
on that line because he talked about being on that line with them back in
2007.” Schultz closed his plea for an Obama visit by saying it is the “job of a
leader” to motivate his followers.
Liberals view Wisconsin as a state that is “leading the
way in reshaping American’s view of the role of government,” Rothman
emphasizes. “President Obama has abandoned that fight, noting correctly that it
is not likely to be won,” he says. “But progressive pundits . . . are right —
this is not just another election. . . .
It is a fight with broad implications that President Obama has
abandoned. The question now becomes, can they [progressives] forgive this
betrayal ahead of a tough election in the fall?”
Wisconsin Is Now in Play for November
The state hasn’t
voted Republican since Ronald Reagan’s reelection effort in 1984, and Obama won
it easily by 14 points in 2008. But the state can be competitive. Both Al Gore
and John Kerry carried it by only a handful of votes — many of which may have
been fraudulent, as a 2007 Milwaukee Police Department report showed.
By this fall, Wisconsin’s new voting law will probably be
in effect. It limits same-day registration abuses and requires voters to show
photo ID at the polls; this should reduce the role of last-minute fraudsters
such as the infamous Park Avenue heiress who pled guilty to flying to Milwaukee
in 2000 and passing out cigarettes to homeless people in exchange for their
promise to vote for Al Gore.
The psychological blow of losing yet another recall
campaign would surely reduce enthusiasm and turnout on the left, while leaving
Romney with an extensive campaign infrastructure in the state: 22 offices set
up by Governor Walker, firmly in place only five months before the presidential
race.
Voters Will See Walker’s Reforms as Working
The recall effort couldn’t get under way until Walker had
been in office a year, and this time lag clearly helped the governor. Walker
can claim to have wiped out a $3.6 billion deficit without raising taxes or
seeing service cutbacks. Indeed, property taxes fell statewide by 0.4 percent
last year, the first time they’ve fallen since 1998. The average homeowner’s
property tax bill would have been about $700 higher if the previous rate of
increase had continued. The state now expects to have a surplus of $150 million
at the end of the current budget cycle.
Voters can see Walker’s reforms working at the grassroots
level as well. Brown Deer, a suburb of Milwaukee, is saving $1 million in pension
and health-care costs. More flexible work rules enabled the city to make
changes in teacher schedules. “We had many teachers tell us, let’s save
everybody’s job,” Brown Deer superintendent Deb Kerr told the Chicago Tribune.
“We didn’t cut programs. We didn’t raise class sizes. And we maintained our
level of staffing.”
At least 52 local school districts are saving an average
of $220 per student because they can now shop around for health insurance for
their employees. Before the reforms, unions forced the schools to do business
exclusively with WEA Trust, the group run by the state’s largest teachers’
union.
The jobs picture
is also improving. Last year, the state added 24,000 new jobs. Chief Executive
magazine reported in 2010 that Wisconsin ranked 41st out of 50 states in terms
of the ease of doing business. In its new survey, the state has jumped to 20th
place, the fastest surge in the history of the magazine’s survey. Separately,
the Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce survey just found that 62 percent of
the members it surveyed plan to create jobs in Wisconsin by year’s end. A full
95 percent of CEOs surveyed said the state is headed in the right direction.
“The word is out from Main Street to Wall Street that Wisconsin is the place to
create jobs and expand,” says Kurt Bauer, the president of WMC.
All these positive
developments explain why Democrat Barrett is talking about almost every issue
except the collective-bargaining reforms that brought thousands of union
protesters to the state’s capitol last year. Voters have moved on from the
union agenda: In a Marquette University poll in May, only 12 percent of
Wisconsin voters agreed that “restoring collective bargaining rights” was their
priority.
Unions Will Have to Take a Long Look in the Mirror
A Walker victory will expose for all to see the dirty little secret of the power of public-sector unions in America: It depends on having the government collect union dues from every employee’s paycheck, and turning the dues over to the unions without the employee’s consent. No other private entity in America — no charity, no association, no company — can do that.
Walker’s reforms ended that practice. Workers can now
decide if they want to pay union dues. Clearly, the answer is no in many cases.
The American Federation of State, County, and Municipal
Employees was founded in Madison in 1936, making the state the launching pad
for all public-sector-union organizing in the country. But now AFSCME’s Local
24 in Madison, which represented 22,300 Wisconsin state workers last year, has
seen its membership shrink by two-thirds, to 7,100. Statewide, AFSCME’s
membership has dropped by more than half. Similarly, the American Federation of
Teachers has lost 6,000 of its 17,000 members. Small wonder. Teachers’-union
dues in Wisconsin range from a hefty $700 a year up to more than $1,000.
Labor historian Fred Siegel says Walker’s changes could
provide a model for reshaping American politics. “Ending dues deductions breaks
the political cycle in which government collects dues and gives them to the
unions, who then use the dues to back their favorite candidates and also lobby
for bigger government and more pay and benefits,” he told me.
With regard to rights and worker protections, the
reduction of union power won’t affect most state workers. Governor Walker
points out that the employee rights that people care about most fall under
civil-service rules that his reforms don’t touch. “We have the strongest
protections in the country on grievance procedures, merit hiring, and just
cause for disciplining and terminating employees,” he told me. “All that
stays.”
Watch How Union Members Voted
Union leaders recognize the stakes of Tuesday’s vote.
People will interpret defeat “as a sign of weakness and a lack of public sympathy,”
Gary Chaison, a professor of industrial relations at Clark University, told the
Wall Street Journal.
Perhaps sympathy for the union cause is waning among
union members themselves. Many of the rank-and-file members resent their
bosses’ large paychecks and alliances with liberal environmentalists and social
activists. In 2010, 37 percent of union households supported Walker in his bid
for governor, an election he won with 52 percent of the vote. So far this year,
polls ranging from Marquette’s to Public Policy Polling (a Democratic firm)
show Walker winning 38 percent to 39 percent of union households.
The key to Walker’s surprising level of union support is
that labor has broken into two camps that have competing interests. Members of
public-sector unions represent 55 percent of all union workers in Wisconsin.
Their leaders are focused not on economic growth but on securing bigger pay,
more benefits, and greater power regardless of the impact on the overall state
budget. Public-sector-union households support Barrett over Walker by 66
percent to 31 percent in a recent Marquette University poll. But among the 45
percent of union households that have a member in the private sector, Barrett
leads by much less: 49 percent to 45 percent. Among non-union households,
Walker has a substantial lead.
Governor Chris
Christie, a strong Walker supporter, sees the split within labor as the most
underreported story in American politics. “There is a divide between private
and public-sector unions that Republicans can benefit from if we convince those
whose livelihood depends on economic growth and job creation that we can bring
that to them,” he told me. The strategy has worked for Christie in New Jersey.
“All my key reforms passed with support from Democratic legislators with roots
in private-sector unions, while the public-sector unions defended the status
quo.”
Regardless of who wins in Wisconsin, a final lesson is
clear: Voters are paying attention. The state has weathered an outpouring of
political activism that few states have ever seen. In 2003, during the
media-saturated recall election of Gray Davis in California (which sparked the
rise of Arnold Schwarzenegger), only 36 percent of voting-age adults showed up
at the polls. The estimate for turnout in Wisconsin on Tuesday is 60 to 65
percent of all adults. In comparison, the average turnout in the last 60 years
for a midterm election for governor has been only 47 percent. Marquette
University polls have found that this year one in five Wisconsin voters said
they had given money to a candidate; more than half said they had personally
tried to influence someone else’s vote; and two-thirds said they talked
politics with family and friends at least once a week.
Whatever the outcome, no one can say that the Wisconsin
recall results don’t represent an informed choice by an energized and
interested electorate.
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