By Mike Coté
Saturday, May 11, 2024
Since October 7, the Biden administration has been
on an all-out diplomatic push to negotiate a cease-fire deal between Israel and
Hamas in Gaza. Early efforts were relatively successful, returning dozens of
hostages to Israel and allowing for Gazan civilians to relocate out of harm’s
way, while not overly hampering Israel’s just effort to eliminate the scourge
of Hamas once and for all. That initial achievement played into the White
House’s self-image as the “adults” who would return the state of the world to
its — in their minds — pacific pre-Trump state. Over the past several months,
the administration has sought to broker more deals, but in the process it has
sacrificed shared Israeli and American interests on the altar of negotiation.
For the Israeli government and the people it represents,
Hamas is an existential threat that must be eliminated. But Hamas and its
Iranian backers will accept nothing less than victory on their own terms: a
full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the lifting of the blockade on the Strip to
allow in all types of goods (namely, weapons) without inspection, the
continuation of Hamas rule over Gaza, and a complete end to fighting — until,
that is, Hamas deems it useful to its goals. Their leverage is the innocent hostages
still held in Gaza. In the face of fundamentally incompatible goals, the Biden
administration has kept pursuing this dead-end path.
The Biden team has taken “shuttle diplomacy” to a new
level. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA director William Burns have
visited Egypt, Israel, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the West Bank, Turkey,
Bahrain, the UAE, and various European nations for cease-fire talks since
October 7. These fruitless trips have constrained and delayed Israeli military
action, thereby benefiting Hamas — allowing it to entrench itself in Rafah,
stoke world indignation at Israel over supposedly insufficient provision of humanitarian
aid (that Hamas steals for itself), and increase international pressure, aided
and abetted by the United States, to make it harder for Israel to triumph.
The purpose of this diplomatic full-court press has
ostensibly been to secure the release of the remaining hostages,
including five American citizens, but it has failed miserably. The
most likely way to get the safe return of as many living hostages as possible
was to allow Israel to storm to a rapid victory, forcing surrender on Hamas
leadership. The pressure of Israel’s military action was what allowed for the
initial hostage deal. The slowdowns caused by these interminable negotiations
have made mounting such pressure impossible. A recent Hamas proposal
essentially acknowledged the new reality on the ground, as it changed the deal
from a set number of living hostages to hostages living
or dead. These terms were known to all parties ahead of its announcement except
one: Israel. Meanwhile the media reported that Hamas had agreed to a
cease-fire. This attempt to force Israel into a corner to forestall the Rafah
operation was a malignant product of Biden’s obsession with diplomacy.
The grave situation that the White House has helped bring
about has been exacerbated by its farcical public statements meant to nudge
Hamas toward a deal. We have heard variations on the rhetorical formulation “If Hamas cares about the Palestinian people . . .”
from Biden spokespeople, the Pentagon, and Secretary Blinken himself. The idea that Hamas — a
U.S.-designated terror organization that routinely steals humanitarian aid,
hides military installations in schools and hospitals, and uses civilians as
human shields — cares one whit about Gazans is laughable. That American diplomats
think saying so can be a useful political tool is horrifying.
These diplomats have failed in winning over the vaunted
“international community” as well. The U.N. has always been institutionally
anti-Israel, but after October 7, this tendency accelerated; America has done
nothing in response. When an anti-Israel resolution backed by America’s foes
came to a vote, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. neglected to veto it. That such
a one-sided resolution was allowed to pass muster is entirely the fault of the
Biden administration. The International Court of Justice is currently hearing a
bogus genocide case against Israel, promulgated by South Africa acting as a
catspaw for the axis of Iran, Russia, and China. The International Criminal
Court is considering issuing arrest warrants for various Israeli leaders, a
slap in the face to America’s closest friend in the Middle East. Such a
decision could presage the arrest of ordinary Israeli soldiers or veterans,
some of whom are American citizens, when traveling abroad. On these outrageous
moves, we’ve heard bupkis from Biden.
The diplomacy fetish of this White House goes to the
heart of its approach to foreign policy. It treats diplomacy as an end in
itself instead of as a means to an end: namely, the promotion and defense of
national interests. Statecraft is a box with many tools — military operations,
economic policy, gray-zone activity, intelligence — and diplomacy is but one.
The Biden team works it as though diplomacy is synonymous with statesmanship
rather than a component of it. Negotiations are only as good as the outcomes
they achieve and the alternatives left on the table. In this case, the outcomes
the Biden team expects are simply not happening. Diplomacy works only when both
sides are operating in good faith, but it is obvious that Israel’s — and our —
opponents are not doing so. Still, the Biden administration puts diplomacy at
the height of policy, sacrificing U.S. interests while also undermining those
of our ally, Israel.
The diplomacy obsession has significantly harmed the U.S.
national interest in other parts of the world. In Venezuela, the White House
agreed to large-scale sanctions relief in exchange for the mere promise of
free, fair democratic elections on the part of the Maduro regime.
Unsurprisingly, Maduro rapidly reneged on this agreement, imprisoning political
rivals and outlawing opposition parties. But this deal was doomed from the
start. Not only did the Biden team fail to realize that the Venezuelan leader
was acting duplicitously, it gave Venezuela an immediate benefit for a future
promise — a big negotiating gaffe.
In China, we have pursued talks and more talks with zero
benefit other than promises of yet more talks to come. The major issues of the
Uyghur persecution, the repression of Hong Kong, and the military harassment of
Taiwan are mentioned, but there is no follow-through. The bilateral meetings
are a constant humiliation, with Chinese diplomats vocally lambasting their
American counterparts and high-level U.S. officials being treated poorly in
China, while Xi Jinping had the red carpet rolled out for him on his visit to
San Francisco. And for all this, America has only seen Beijing increase its
malign activities.
And then there’s Iran policy. Since taking office in
January 2021, the president and his staff have followed in the footsteps of
Biden’s former boss, seeking rapprochement with Iran at all costs. They undid
the successful maximum-pressure policy implemented by Trump in favor of
conciliation and discussion, à la Obama. Sanctions were lifted, including on
oil, Iran’s major export and primary source of funds. The White House released
billions in sequestered dollars to Iran alongside the sanctions relief, all in
a quixotic effort to bring Iran back into the fatally flawed Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action. In exchange, Iran has used this influx of cash to
ramp up its nuclear-weapons program and fund its terrorist proxies abroad,
resulting in the Houthi assault on shipping, the Iran-backed militia attack on
U.S. troops in Jordan that killed three service members, the low-intensity (so
far) Hezbollah war against Israel, and the Hamas atrocities of October 7. In no
way have diplomatic efforts with Iran bolstered American interests.
At some point, the Biden team’s use of diplomacy as the
be-all and end-all fits the famous definition of insanity: doing the same thing
over and over again while expecting different results. In the war in Gaza, the
White House’s insistence on diplomacy has harmed Israel, prolonged the
suffering of hostages, and undermined our national interests. It has failed in
every possible respect, including the latest egregious attempt to deter a
necessary Israeli push on Rafah, Hamas’s last redoubt.
The administration’s diplomats have been too busy talking
to hear the sound of the enemy loading its guns. In fact, this diplomatic
obsession has made conflict more likely, as it has put America and its allies
at an unnecessary disadvantage. For that, this administration will be
remembered fondly in the capitals of our foes, but likely nowhere else.
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