By Jim Geraghty
Tuesday, March 16, 2021
AstraZeneca created a vaccine that works and is perfectly safe according
to large-scale trials, but nobody can get it, and nobody is using it.
Okay, that’s a mild exaggeration; The company plans to ship hundreds of millions of doses of its
vaccine to 142 countries in the coming months. Before this recent wave
of mostly European suspension of use, the AstraZeneca vaccine was approved for
use in 72 countries. But a lot fewer doses of AstraZeneca are going into
people’s arms today than a few days ago, and the reasoning behind that decision
doesn’t make much sense.
Last week, we received an update on that Baltimore warehouse with “tens of
millions of doses” of the AstraZeneca vaccine ready to go, with word
that another 30 million doses are currently bottled at AstraZeneca’s facility
in West Chester, Ohio. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of
Health, told Reuters yesterday that independent monitors are reviewing
the results of AstraZeneca’s ongoing U.S. COVID-19 vaccine trial, and
emergency authorization could come in about a month.
But a lot of European countries suspended using the
AstraZeneca vaccine this week, and while I try not to get over my skis and remain
humble about my ability to make sweeping conclusions about medical topics, it
appears the leaders of these countries have lost their minds.
Based upon the available data, an individual person’s
odds of developing blood clots after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine are one
in 459,459; for perspective, the U.S. CDC says that your odds of being struck by lightning
are one in 500,000.
And yet, as of this morning, Bulgaria, Denmark, France,
Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway,
Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden have suspended use of the vaccine.
AstraZeneca skepticism is now spreading outside Europe; Indonesia, Thailand,
and the Congo have suspended use of the vaccine as well.
The European Medicines Agency — the EU version of the FDA
— approved the vaccine and promises an update on its investigation by Thursday.
For now, the EMA is skeptical of the skepticism:
Events involving blood clots, some
with unusual features such as low numbers of platelets, have occurred in a very
small number of people who received the vaccine. Many thousands of people
develop blood clots annually in the EU for different reasons. The number of
thromboembolic events overall in vaccinated people seems not to be higher than
that seen in the general population . . . While its investigation is ongoing,
EMA currently remains of the view that the benefits of the AstraZeneca
vaccine in preventing COVID-19, with its associated risk of hospitalization and
death, outweigh the risks of side effects.
Here’s a little cultural tidbit you may not know: Europe
is full of anti-vaxxers and vaccine skeptics. Europe’s got so many skeptics
that in the United States, even with our left-wing crystal-waving New-Age types
believing in “healing essential oils” and right-wing paranoid militia-compound
types fueling vaccine skepticism, we still look like a bunch of cool, rational,
logical Vulcans in comparison.
In December, Ipsos surveyed people in 15 countries on whether they intended
to get the vaccine. Sixty-nine percent of Americans said they intended
to get it, while 65 percent of Germans, 62 percent of Italians and Spaniards,
43 percent of Russians, and only 40 percent of French people said they would
get it.
But vaccine skepticism flourishes all over Europe. The AP
warns that “in southeastern Europe, coronavirus vaccination campaigns are
off to a slow start — overshadowed by heated political debates and
conspiracy theories.” The Spectator observes that polling indicates that
only a third to a half of Poles, Czechs, Bulgarians, and Hungarians want the
vaccine. The Financial Times reports that half of surveyed German nurses did not
want to be vaccinated, along with a quarter of doctors. In Italy, the populist Five-Star Movement has long sown doubt about
vaccines.
(Really, can we please bury the stereotype or trope that
Europeans are sophisticated modern cognoscenti and we’re just a bunch of
Bible-thumping backwater hicks?)
Michael
Brendan Dougherty suggested — tongue in cheek? — that the European
countries’ wariness of the AstraZeneca or “Oxford” vaccine might be a
reflection of lingering animosity over Brexit. I don’t think this is the case, but
if it is, my patience for lectures about “the dangers of nationalism” from
Europeans was already so small it could only be seen with an electron
microscope. A country’s leadership turning down safe and lifesaving vaccines
because of lingering political resentments would qualify among the all-time
most reckless and irresponsible acts.
Someone recently shared with me the theory that European
governments are all hitting pause on the AstraZeneca vaccine because if they
don’t, vaccine skepticism and paranoia will explode. By pausing for a few days,
these governments look responsive to public concerns. They can review the data,
and in a week or so come out and announce that they see no significant risk of
blood clots.
The problem with this sort of public-relations maneuver
is that it costs these countries several days of vaccinations against the coronavirus,
and the virus is way, way, way more dangerous to people than the vaccine. In the Financial Times, German biologist
Dirk Brockman said the risks posed by the vaccine were low, particularly when
compared with deaths from coronavirus. “It is probably 100,000 times more
likely to die of Covid than because of an AstraZeneca vaccine.”
So . . . is there anyone who shouldn’t get the vaccine
because of a potential health risk? Sure.
The Small Percentage of People Who Legitimately
Shouldn’t Get Vaccinated
There is a small percentage of people who genuinely
should not receive a COVID-vaccination shot. (I can’t wait until that sentence
gets taken out of context by the anti-vaxxers. “Even National
Review says people shouldn’t get the COVID-19 vaccine!” Folks,
get your vaccinations when they’re available. I’m among those lucky enough to
have received both shots by now, and other than a brief bout of dizziness and
vertigo three days after the first shot, I’m fine.*)
If you’ve had a history of anaphylaxis or non-severe
immediate allergic reactions to other vaccines, you should talk to your doctor
before receiving the vaccine. If you’re allergic to the ingredients in the
vaccine, you should not take the vaccine, or at least consult with your doctor
first. The Pfizer vaccine’s ingredients can be found here, the
Moderna vaccine’s ingredients can be found here, and
the Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine ingredients can be found here.
The CDC also directs that anyone who experiences
anaphylaxis after getting the first dose of the vaccine should not get the
second dose, which seems like common sense to me.
But beyond that, you should get vaccinated: “CDC
recommends that people get vaccinated even if they have a history of severe
allergic reactions not related to vaccines or injectable medications — such as
food, pet, venom, environmental, or latex allergies. People with a history of
allergies to oral medications or a family history of severe allergic reactions
may also get vaccinated.”
*I mean, no more dementia than usual.
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