By Amber Phillips
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Sure, his rival won the first-in-the-nation nominating
contest. And he didn't even come in second place. In fact, Sen. Marco Rubio
(R-Fla.) came in third, exactly where we predicted he would.
But it's how Rubio came in third that makes all the
difference. Polling indicated Rubio would be a distant third, trailing by
perhaps double digits in the socially conservative state — an afterthought
behind the two candidates expected to duke it out for first: Sen. Ted Cruz
(R-Tex.) and Donald Trump.
Instead, Rubio came in a very strong third — a third that
was very nearly second, as he crept up on Trump's vote total. In Monday's Iowa
GOP caucuses, Cruz got 28 percent of the vote, Trump 24 percent and Rubio 23
percent.
Rubio came within a couple hundred supporters of piercing
the impenetrable bubble thought to be around Cruz and Trump — and on the two
leaders' own political turf, no less. He over-performed expectations, and for
that, Rubio perhaps almost as much as Cruz can call Monday a win.
A few minutes after the Associated Press called the race
for Cruz, Rubio took the stage in Iowa, flanked by his family. But if you were
listening to Rubio's speech in a news vacuum, you would have thought AP called
the race for him.
"For months, they said we had no chance," he
said. "… They told me I had no chance because my hair wasn't gray enough
and my boots were too high."
Then, he pivoted to what can only be described as a
general election stump speech — sharing his Cuban immigrant parents' story of
making it in America, knocking Democrat Hillary Clinton for her emails and
warning that "everything that makes this nation great now hangs in the
balance" of this presidential election.
Rubio's impressive results in the Iowa caucus — and his
speech afterward — were tailored to one simple message: He is the GOP candidate
with the broadest appeal to win in a general election, and Iowa proves it.
"We are going to unify this party, and we are going
to unify the conservative movement," he said Monday, a subtle dig at both
Cruz's and Trump's reputation for divisiveness.
Rubio is arguing that Iowa is proof that his strategy, to
be many things to many different people, is working. He was never expected to
win among such a conservative electorate, so the fact he got so close to the
two who were — even after going on the defense for supporting immigration
reform in 2013 — suggests he has staying power among the social conservative
community while he carries the mantle of leader of the establishment pack. (The
next establishment candidate, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, came in sixth
place Monday with 3 percent of the vote.)
Still, one great night does not a nomination make.
There are some holes in his argument, like Rubio's
support in Iowa may not be as widespread as he indicates. He won support in
Iowa's metropolitan areas, where voters tend to be more moderate, and didn't
appear to win a single other.
And Rubio is going to need whatever momentum Iowa gives
him for the next contest, New Hampshire's primary. There, a more moderate state
that should be more in Rubio's wheelhouse, he is fifth and has been criticized
for not campaigning very hard.
Daring to look even further ahead, Rubio is in a familiar
position in South Carolina: Third behind Trump and Cruz. But we'll note that,
as Iowa votes were being tallied, Politico reported the well-liked Sen. Tim
Scott (R-S.C.) is expected to endorse Rubio in his state's primary. And there,
Rubio's good night became even better.
Time will tell whether Rubio's strong Monday night will
be a turning point for his campaign. But for now, he's the candidate whose
showing was probably the biggest surprise of the Iowa caucuses.
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