By David French
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Last night’s GOP debate was a mess. The moderators were
terrible — historically terrible. They were biased, they were unprepared, and
they infuriatingly combined their incompetence with stereotypically liberal
smirking and condescension. But even the best moderation can’t obscure a
fundamental failing of the Republican field: There are simply too many
candidates in the race. The sheer numbers dilute the conservative message,
create an unprofessional atmosphere of on-stage chaos, and diminish the
candidates as they’re often reduced to shouting for attention like students in
an unruly classroom.
Yes, I understand ambition. I also understand hope –
especially when filtered not only through fans and supporters who believe the
candidate’s breakout moment is just around the corner but also through the
candidates’ own political history of triumph, sometimes against long odds. The
presidency is the job of their dreams, they think they can win, and they also
feel that it will be best for the nation they love if they’re in the Oval
Office rather than their rivals.
Moreover, they can make a case for hanging in just a bit
longer. After all – if you’re an establishment candidate like Jeb Bush – can’t
you argue that John McCain was dead in the water in 2007, right until he came
roaring back to win the nomination? If you’re a low-polling insurgent, wasn’t
Rick Santorum barely registering in the polls – even in Iowa – before emerging
as the last Romney-alternative standing and the runner-up in 2012? And aren’t
most of the politician-candidates having trouble believing that the Trump and
Carson surges are any more concrete than the Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain
boomlets of 2011? In other words, in their minds almost 50 percent of the
Republican primary electorate is still functionally up for grabs.
So they stay . . . but at some point, hope has to yield
to reason, and even candidates who believe they still have a chance should step
aside. Is there a plausible case that any of the candidates in the undercard
debates will move even to the middle of the pack in a crowded field, much less
to the center lectern on the main stage? The back of the pack is on the verge
of Dumb and Dumber thinking, where a
one-in-a-million shot is enthusiastically interpreted as a “chance” to win.
The main stage should be cut down as well. Is there a
plausible path for Mike Huckabee? For Chris Christie? For John Kasich? Does
Kasich actually believe that the Republican electorate has been searching for a
louder, angrier John Huntsman? And I’d argue that Rand Paul’s campaign died in
2014, when the rise of ISIS reminded Americans of the jihadist threat. Paul’s
foreign policy built around non-intervention and a domestic policy notably
characterized by opposition to anti-terrorist surveillance measures became
politically untenable – especially in a Republican primary.
I still think it’s too soon to count out Jeb Bush. He’s
still in the top five in the polling averages nationally (and in Iowa and New
Hampshire), but the trend lines are bad, and the last debate did him no favors.
Over at The Weekly Standard, Jonathan
Last called the Bush/Rubio exchange over Rubio’s attendance record in the
Senate “the kind of body shot that buckles your knees,” and it’s hard to
disagree:
Moreover, the McCain model is misleading – a look at the
2008 race shows that he was leading (decisively) at this point in 2007, and
with the exception of a brief Huckabee surge actually led throughout the vast
majority of the campaign cycle. The Bush campaign is on life support, and even
if Trump and/or Carson fade, it’s hard to see their supporters migrating to
Bush and not Cruz, Rubio, or Fiorina.
It’s hard to watch dreams die, and it takes no small
amount of integrity and selflessness to follow Scott Walker and Rick Perry’s
path – to acknowledge that a small chance of victory isn’t worth the certainty
of further division, further campaign confusion, dilution of precious
fundraising resources, and yet more debate chaos. Multiple GOP campaigns are on
life support. It’s time to start pulling plugs.
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