By Tom Rogan
Monday, February 09, 2015
In 2015, Europe faces two major problems. First, across
the continent, rebranded Communists are selling the snake-oil of painless
utopia, where government provides everything and balance sheets don’t exist.
Second, Russia is invading.
Where the first problem threatens the future of millions
of young Europeans, the second problem threatens the sovereign peace upon which
the European project resides.
This Russian invasion requires American honesty. Today,
in the Baltic States, Russia is threatening pro-Western politicians and
kidnapping intelligence officers. And in Ukraine, Russia is stealing a nation.
In recent weeks, Russia has escalated offensive actions across eastern Ukraine.
Arming, mobilizing, and directing Ukrainian separatists against the Kiev
government, President Putin has shredded last September’s Minsk agreement.
Under this deal, Russia had agreed to cease its support for rebel aggression.
Instead, it has done the exact opposite. This was predictable. As I wrote in
December, lower oil prices and Putin’s philosophy meant that Russia’s
heightened aggression was always likely. Moreover, Western leaders aren’t
exactly deterring him.
In fact, they’re emboldening him. After all, in his
recent State of the Union address, President Obama claimed that he’d
out-maneuvered Russia and won a defining victory. Simultaneously, multiple
Ukrainian towns were falling to Russian forces. Where Obama measures foreign
policy success by packaged statistics (whether the number of airstrikes against
ISIS, or the stats on Russia’s economic condition), Putin measures physical
reality. Now America has two solemn choices: allow Putin to seize Eastern
Europe (Ukraine is only part of Russia’s regional strategy), or escalate to
stop him.
If we chose to cede Ukraine, we should do so honestly, by
strengthening economic sanctions on Russia but ending the pretension that we’ll
do anything else. At a moral level, it’s fair to ask why we should do more: If
European nations don’t care enough (the UK included) to invest in their own
defense, why should Americans? Nevertheless, our clarity of purpose is
critical. In U.S. foreign policy, false resolve is far worse than honest
disinterest. Clear disinterest in one area allows us to maintain our
credibility elsewhere, but when we abandon our word, American credibility is
gutted everywhere.
Of course, we’ll have to be equally honest if we escalate
against Russia. For a start, we’ll have to drop the platitudes and accept that
confronting Russia carries real risks. Believing Russia’s existential interests
are at stake in Ukraine, and leading a proud but pained nation that craves
respect (read David Greene and Angela Stent), Putin is ready for a fight. And
let’s be clear, while we could ramp up sanctions (a full-spectrum denial of
Russian financial access to Western markets, for example) or provide arms to
the Ukrainian government, those options carry consequences. Were Ukraine to
deploy any U.S.-provided arms east of the Dnieper River, our involvement in the
war would cross a modern-day Rubicon. Russia might well launch a full-scale
invasion toward Kiev; and, again, the old credibility question would once again
rise to the fore. In that scenario, our only means of deterring Russia might be
the large-scale deployment of American military forces to western Ukraine.
Regardless, as we decide on next steps, all of us —
whatever our opinions — must consider more honestly what we’re willing or
unwilling to do, and how much European security matters to us. Our present
confusion helps no one.
No comments:
Post a Comment