Refusing to Worry

By Michael Brendan Dougherty 

Wednesday, May 17, 2023 

 

Ever since mid March, the political press has been piling on Florida governor Ron DeSantis. We were told then that his position on Ukraine (no blank checks, and not our highest priority), one that reflects roughly half or more of the Republican Party, showed he was unserious. It showed that maybe he was a loser after all, even though Republicans rate about a dozen issues as more important to them than the Donbas. Then he went to Capitol Hill, and a few Florida legislators endorsed Donald Trump. An epic disaster of a week, said the New Republic. Do you even remember it? And does it seem like an epic disaster now? Then it was his war with Disney, overshadowing everything, including his visit to Israel. 

 

Meanwhile, he signed legislation in Florida to expand school choice, extend the Parental Rights in Education law, make Florida a constitutional-carry state, cut taxes, ban sex-disfigurement operations on children, reform torts, and limit the use of ESG in state contracting and investment decisions. You might remember that on a night that was pretty disappointing for Republicans last November, Ron DeSantis won by 20 points. 

 

Over the weekend, he went to Iowa and had a number of successful proto-campaign events, whereas Donald Trump canceled his own. The DeSantis team was able to announce his endorsement by 37 elected Iowa Republicans, a record slate — and for a candidacy that isn’t even declared yet. 

 

And this is why I’m not really worried about DeSantis’s slipping in national polls. I’m not agonizing over his lack of overt attacks or counter-attacks on Donald J. Trump. I’m not troubled by the fact that he is waiting until the end of the legislative session and biding his time. 

 

The fact is that DeSantis is going to start this race with polling showing him outperforming Trump in a general-election matchup against Joe Biden. He’s going to start this race with an enormous war chest, filled with money from donors who don’t appreciate how Donald Trump has cannibalized the Republican Party with his signature “99 cents of every dollar for me, one cent for you”–style fund-raisers. DeSantis is going to start the race within striking distance in the first two primary contests. He’s going to start his campaign even though Donald Trump, with some assistance from the liberal media, has spent four months trying to blow it up on the launchpad. 

 

There is no denying that Donald Trump has advantages. Trump’s strength — still — is that he is a Republican who runs against Republicans. Trump also possesses and demonstrates a superior willfulness that voters fantasize can be put to work for their interests. Poor and working-class white voters are enormously loyal to Trump in polling. 

 

But Trump also has weaknesses, many of them. Donald Trump’s 2016 accusations that the Iowa caucus was rigged against him turned out to be an accusation against Republican caucus-goers, who run the caucus themselves. Expect many of them to have long memories. And if Trump begins whining, it will remind everyone of how divisive and repellent to independent voters his election denialism is generally. When his legal troubles look like persecution, it seems to cause people to rally to him. But they still will cast a shadow over him. With Mike Pence almost certain to run on his own now, and Trump criticizing DeSantis and others for being “too harsh” with abortion restrictions, Trump is inviting some Evangelical voters, a crucial part of his 2016 base, to ditch him. Finally, Trump’s largest weakness, though rarely stated, is that he has been the main character in American life since 2015, at a time when Americans are anxious to make a generational change of leadership in favor of Generation X and Millennials. 

 

DeSantis also has strengths. He united and expanded the Republican electorate in his state, bringing in what looked like the entirety of the pre-Trump Republican Party (country club and all), along with the Trump party, and a post-Trump party that is growing its share among Hispanic voters. Among Republicans, he’s the choice of upwardly mobile suburban voters who turn out to the polls. DeSantis also earned the loyalty of a certain cohort of Republican voters during the pandemic when he stood up for normal schooling, and against compulsory masks or vaccines. These voters are going to amplify his argument that Trump stuck with Dr. Fauci and the lockdown crew far too long. Voters haven’t seen DeSantis prosecute a case for himself against Trump yet. But they will. He’ll be running as the guy who gets the job done. Trump can’t say the same.