By Noah Rothman
Friday, July 29,
2022
In a true wave election, surprises happen.
Those surprises tend to break in the same direction, in favor of the “out”
party, and polling provides only limited insights before the autumn. That said,
when it comes to the statewide races for governor or U.S. Senate that will be
decided in November, the GOP had better be hoping for a lot of surprises.
In statewide races across the country
where Republican primary voters saw fit to ratify former President Donald
Trump’s endorsement—at least, where he was not giving his nod to the incumbent,
who maintains a preexisting relationship with his or her voters—the polls
suggest the GOP candidates are floundering.
Take Pennsylvania, for example. Because
the Keystone State is crucial to Republican electoral objectives, you might
think the party would have managed the process better than it did in 2022. It
did not. There, self-help guru Mehmet Oz, a New Jersey native and dual Turkish
citizen who promised to forego classified
intelligence briefings so
he could maintain his ties to Ankara, won the Republican Party’s nod for U.S.
Senate. Doug Mastriano, a true MAGA believer who seems more fixated on relitigating
2020 than contesting his own race, won
the gubernatorial nomination (albeit with a boost from cynical Democrats). How
are these candidates faring so far? Not well.
In the race between Oz and Lt. Gov. John
Fetterman, Oz has not led in any
poll of registered or likely voters.
Indeed, in the most recent Fox News survey of the race, Oz trails his
Democratic opponent by double digits. The candidate’s apparent disinterest in
the race—spending the general election variously at his New Jersey residence,
South Florida, and Ireland—hasn’t helped. Mastriano finds himself in the same
boat—trailing Democrat Josh Shapiro, sometimes by double digits, though that
race is marginally tighter than the U.S. Senate contest. It seems that
campaigning in the state you’re seeking to represent counts for something.
What about Georgia? Here, we have a real
test of how the former president’s heterodox mien plays with voters in an
increasingly purple state. Georgia’s Republican voters rejected an energetic
effort by Trump and his allies to oust Gov. Brian Kemp in the GOP primary, and
they’ve been rewarded for their prudence. Kemp maintains a
lead, with varying degrees of comfort, in
nearly every survey of his race against perennial candidate Stacey Abrams. By
contrast, freshman Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who won an upset victory in
January 2021 in a special election, enjoys a
consistent lead over Herschel Walker. The former
football star faced no real challenge in the race for the GOP’s U.S. Senate
nomination, but that was due in no small part to Trump’s early support for and
encouragement of Walker’s candidacy.
Given Ohio’s rapid rightward drift over
the last decade, the race for U.S. Senate in the state should not be nearly as
competitive as it seems. FiveThirtyEight’s average of the
polling in that race gives Democrat Tim Ryan
a two-point advantage over J.D. Vance, an accomplished figure who has tried to
lend some intellectual heft to Trump’s populist reconceptualization of the
Republican Party. Here, too, the contrast with the gubernatorial race is
valuable, as incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine is expected to easily bat
away his challenger, former Dayton Mayor
Nan Whaley. Also unlike in the U.S. Senate race in the Buckeye State, Trump
pointedly declined to
endorse a candidate in the primary race for
the state’s gubernatorial nomination, where multiple MAGA-flavored candidates
split the anti-DeWine vote.
But what about Trump-backed statewide
candidates who are outperforming expectations in open races? Trump backed
Alabama U.S. Senate Candidate Katie Britt, albeit after it
became apparent that his preferred candidate, Rep.
Mo Brooks, would lose. Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, who has not received a formal Trump endorsement but who hasn’t been
rejected outright (sorry, Vicky Hartzler), appears capable of defeating the irreparably flawed Eric Greitens and
keeping his state’s seat in the GOP column. Outside dark red states,
Trump-backed former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt has a shot at ousting incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, though polling
of the race has been sporadic and has produced mixed results.
This record should impose some caution on
Arizona’s Republican voters, who will head to the polls for the state’s primary
race next week. Republicans there appear inclined to disregard these
signals. Recent polling indicates that Republicans will back Kari Lake for governor and
Blake Masters for Senate in this purple state. Lake’s appeal seems limited
to her
willingness to endorse Trump’s preferred myths
around the 2020 election. Likewise, Masters’s enthusiastic
claim that “Trump won in 2020” and his
penchant for offending
polite sensibilities has endeared him to Arizona’s GOP
voters. Both candidates would, however, likely
accelerate their state’s drift toward the
Democratic Party.
Even in states that are less competitive
for Republicans, Trump’s faulty political judgment could artificially reduce
the gains the GOP expects in November. Retaining Maryland’s statehouse after
two consecutive terms of Republican governance would be a heavy lift, but at
the top of the ticket is Dan Cox, a January 6 rally attendee who called Mike Pence a “traitor.” He could
represent a drag on GOP candidates farther down the ballot.
In a midterm election year in which voters
had not expressed a clear preference for one party over another, Republican
primary voters’ unforced errors would cost the party dearly. And yet, this is
not such a year. This year’s tailwinds could sweep many of these candidates
into office despite their obvious flaws. As Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter
observed, “there’s nothing new about a late summer
‘reassessment’ of midterm assumptions.”
Nevertheless, questionable candidate
selection cost the GOP winnable statewide seats in prior wave years in which
the the party made inroads into dark blue states. In 2010 (Colorado’s Ken Buck,
Connecticut’s Linda McMahon, and Nevada’s Sharron Angle) and in 2014
(Michigan’s Terri Lynn Land and erstwhile Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown’s
challenge to New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen), the GOP squandered the chance to
fully realize the moment’s potential. That history seems to be repeating in 2022.
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